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Timing
Note: close_open and open_open price trade events at exec_spot while NAV is marked at the day's close, so day 1 of any backtest carries a small lookahead bias (~1% on the initial cash-to-stock rebalance) that compounds proportionally through the run — even for stockonly with no X3 or CC, since the very first rebalance buys shares at exec_spot. Subsequent days are unaffected (same shares, close-to-close moves). Treat the spread between variants as the robustness signal, not absolute numbers under non-close_close modes.
Robustness

Best for goals — NAV up + low drawdown + steady $3k/m

Curated comparison for the joint objective of growing NAV (with TSLA's long-term uptrend), minimizing drawdown, and supporting a continuous $3,000/cycle withdrawal. Includes the existing winners plus six new rule-based candidates that filled obvious gaps in the search: full-collar combos at every CC OTM ladder rung paired with the $3k withdrawal, an aggressive 50/50 sleeve weighting, and two "partial- coverage premium-funded collar" variants where contracts are sized to exactly fund the salary, leaving the rest of the stock uncovered for upside while still hedged by a 15% OTM put. The bare 85_15 row is included as the current-strategy no-withdrawal baseline.

Generated 2026-05-06 10:44 · Period: 2019-01-02 → 2026-04-29 · Runs: stockonly, stockonly_w3kusd, 0_100, 85_15, 85_15_trim, 70_30, 70_30_trim, 85_15_trim_w3kusd, 70_30_trim_w3kusd, 85_15_w3kusd, 85_15_cc05_w3kusd, 85_15_cc05_put15_w3kusd, 70_30_cc05_w3kusd, 70_30_cc05_put15_w3kusd, 70_30_cc10_put15_w3kusd, 70_30_cc15_put15_w3kusd, 70_30_cc05_target3k_w3kusd, 70_30_cc05_target3k_put15_w3kusd, 70_30_cc15_target3k_put15_w3kusd, 50_50_cc05_put15_w3kusd

Reading the absolute numbers: SPEC §9 caveats apply. Costs are modeled (CC premium haircut, X3 trade cost) but real-world frictions like MA10 whipsaw timing, vol-spike spread blowouts, and FX spread are not. Treat differences between runs as much more reliable than absolute returns.

Strategy settings

SPEC §5 fields per strategy. Monthly anchor and X3 timing are controlled by the global toggle in the filter bar — every strategy runs under all 6 timing variants.

Settingstockonlystockonly_w3kusd0_10085_1585_15_trim70_3070_30_trim85_15_trim_w3kusd70_30_trim_w3kusd85_15_w3kusd85_15_cc05_w3kusd85_15_cc05_put15_w3kusd70_30_cc05_w3kusd70_30_cc05_put15_w3kusd70_30_cc10_put15_w3kusd70_30_cc15_put15_w3kusd70_30_cc05_target3k_w3kusd70_30_cc05_target3k_put15_w3kusd70_30_cc15_target3k_put15_w3kusd50_50_cc05_put15_w3kusd
Start date2019-01-012019-01-012019-01-012019-01-012019-01-012019-01-012019-01-012019-01-012019-01-012019-01-012019-01-012019-01-012019-01-012019-01-012019-01-012019-01-012019-01-012019-01-012019-01-012019-01-01
End date2026-04-302026-04-302026-04-302026-04-302026-04-302026-04-302026-04-302026-04-302026-04-302026-04-302026-04-302026-04-302026-04-302026-04-302026-04-302026-04-302026-04-302026-04-302026-04-302026-04-30
Initial capital (USD)500000.0500000.0500000.0500000.0500000.0500000.0500000.0500000.0500000.0500000.0500000.0500000.0500000.0500000.0500000.0500000.0500000.0500000.0500000.0500000.0
Monthly anchor (toggle)lastlastlastlastlastlastlastlastlastlastlastlastlastlastlastlastlastlastlastlast
X3 timing (toggle)close_closeclose_closeclose_closeclose_closeclose_closeclose_closeclose_closeclose_closeclose_closeclose_closeclose_closeclose_closeclose_closeclose_closeclose_closeclose_closeclose_closeclose_closeclose_closeclose_close
CC enabledfalsefalsefalsefalsefalsefalsefalsefalsefalsefalsetruetruetruetruetruetruetruetruetruetrue
CC OTM %10.010.013.013.013.013.013.013.013.013.05.05.05.05.010.015.05.05.015.05.0
Withdrawal/cycle USD0.03000.00.00.00.00.00.03000.03000.03000.03000.03000.03000.03000.03000.03000.03000.03000.03000.03000.0
Stock sleeve %100.0100.00.085.085.070.070.085.070.085.085.085.070.070.070.070.070.070.070.050.0
X3 sleeve %0.00.0100.015.015.030.030.015.030.015.015.015.030.030.030.030.030.030.030.050.0
X3 drag %0.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
X3 MA window1010101010101010101010101010101010101010
HV window3030303030303030303030303030303030303030
IV multiplier1.121.121.121.121.121.121.121.121.121.121.121.121.121.121.121.121.121.121.121.12
X3 trade cost %0.250.250.250.250.250.250.250.250.250.250.250.250.250.250.250.250.250.250.250.25
CC haircut %3.03.03.03.03.03.03.03.03.03.03.03.03.03.03.03.03.03.03.03.0
Put enabled———————————true—truetruetrue—truetruetrue
Put OTM %———————————15.0—15.015.015.0—15.015.015.0
Put funding———————————premium_first—premium_firstpremium_firstpremium_first—premium_firstpremium_firstpremium_first
Put max cost % of premium———————————null—nullnullnull—nullnullnull

Summary metrics

NAV is engine state (does not include withdrawn cash). Total wealth = Final NAV + cumulative withdrawn. Cells with two numbers show total above, median per cycle below. The dispersion subline (toggle in filter bar) shows min · median · max of each metric across the timing-variant family.

Metricstockonlystockonly_w3kusd0_10085_1585_15_trim70_3070_30_trim85_15_trim_w3kusd70_30_trim_w3kusd85_15_w3kusd85_15_cc05_w3kusd85_15_cc05_put15_w3kusd70_30_cc05_w3kusd70_30_cc05_put15_w3kusd70_30_cc10_put15_w3kusd70_30_cc15_put15_w3kusd70_30_cc05_target3k_w3kusd70_30_cc05_target3k_put15_w3kusd70_30_cc15_target3k_put15_w3kusd50_50_cc05_put15_w3kusd
Initial NAV (USD)500,000
fan (6): min 500,000 · med 505,081 · max 506,566
497,000
fan (6): min 497,000 · med 502,051 · max 503,527
500,000
fan (6): min 500,000 · med 500,000 · max 500,000
500,000
fan (6): min 500,000 · med 504,319 · max 505,581
500,000
fan (6): min 500,000 · med 504,319 · max 505,581
500,000
fan (6): min 500,000 · med 503,557 · max 504,596
500,000
fan (6): min 500,000 · med 503,557 · max 504,596
497,000
fan (6): min 497,000 · med 501,289 · max 502,542
497,000
fan (6): min 497,000 · med 500,526 · max 501,557
497,000
fan (6): min 497,000 · med 501,289 · max 502,542
500,000
fan (6): min 500,000 · med 504,319 · max 505,581
500,000
fan (6): min 500,000 · med 504,319 · max 505,581
500,000
fan (6): min 500,000 · med 503,557 · max 504,596
500,000
fan (6): min 500,000 · med 503,557 · max 504,596
500,000
fan (6): min 500,000 · med 503,557 · max 504,596
500,000
fan (6): min 500,000 · med 503,557 · max 504,596
500,000
fan (6): min 500,000 · med 503,557 · max 504,596
500,000
fan (6): min 500,000 · med 503,557 · max 504,596
500,000
fan (6): min 500,000 · med 503,557 · max 504,596
500,000
fan (6): min 500,000 · med 502,541 · max 503,283
Final NAV (USD, post-tax)8,757,770
fan (6): min 8,757,770 · med 8,846,851 · max 8,872,927
7,498,456
fan (6): min 7,473,155 · med 7,574,088 · max 7,606,368
182,184,857
fan (6): min 76,586,461 · med 182,184,857 · max 182,184,857
19,906,704
fan (6): min 17,852,649 · med 19,904,805 · max 23,524,738
15,488,303
fan (6): min 13,514,233 · med 15,363,182 · max 15,640,872
39,010,984
fan (6): min 31,159,883 · med 38,914,054 · max 50,689,892
26,216,065
fan (6): min 19,939,392 · med 25,893,657 · max 26,514,977
13,628,161
fan (6): min 11,731,149 · med 13,489,203 · max 13,746,467
23,474,939
fan (6): min 17,476,839 · med 23,136,113 · max 23,622,236
17,308,808
fan (6): min 15,434,551 · med 17,320,946 · max 20,436,862
7,573,885
fan (6): min 5,061,830 · med 6,738,932 · max 8,854,308
17,890,453
fan (6): min 11,675,701 · med 18,541,755 · max 20,772,311
21,242,561
fan (6): min 15,432,815 · med 18,968,624 · max 29,137,073
42,670,327
fan (6): min 30,224,426 · med 42,557,828 · max 58,278,845
41,239,879
fan (6): min 29,563,757 · med 36,942,329 · max 50,477,721
39,089,153
fan (6): min 26,733,518 · med 35,358,575 · max 43,347,478
30,059,026
fan (6): min 23,906,824 · med 29,896,541 · max 40,520,800
21,273,195
fan (6): min 16,792,709 · med 21,332,731 · max 30,993,979
19,832,098
fan (6): min 16,528,730 · med 19,531,066 · max 27,640,074
93,007,612
fan (6): min 56,230,496 · med 85,703,988 · max 137,778,669
Increased NAV (USD, post-tax)
+8,257,770avg: +94,195/mo
fan (6): min 8,257,770 · med 8,341,770 · max 8,366,361
+7,001,456avg: +79,865/mo
fan (6): min 6,976,155 · med 7,071,299 · max 7,102,841
+181,684,857avg: +2,072,451/mo
fan (6): min 76,086,461 · med 181,684,857 · max 181,684,857
+19,406,704avg: +221,369/mo
fan (6): min 17,347,067 · med 19,402,645 · max 23,020,419
+14,988,303avg: +170,969/mo
fan (6): min 13,008,652 · med 14,863,182 · max 15,136,553
+38,510,984avg: +439,289/mo
fan (6): min 30,655,287 · med 38,412,276 · max 50,186,335
+25,716,065avg: +293,339/mo
fan (6): min 19,434,795 · med 25,393,657 · max 26,011,420
+13,131,161avg: +149,785/mo
fan (6): min 11,228,607 · med 12,992,203 · max 13,245,178
+22,977,939avg: +262,106/mo
fan (6): min 16,975,282 · med 22,639,113 · max 23,121,709
+16,811,808avg: +191,770/mo
fan (6): min 14,932,009 · med 16,821,802 · max 19,935,573
+7,073,885avg: +80,691/mo
fan (6): min 4,557,511 · med 6,236,141 · max 8,349,989
+17,390,453avg: +198,370/mo
fan (6): min 11,171,382 · med 18,038,964 · max 20,272,311
+20,742,561avg: +236,607/mo
fan (6): min 14,929,258 · med 18,466,326 · max 28,633,516
+42,170,327avg: +481,030/mo
fan (6): min 29,720,869 · med 42,055,530 · max 57,775,288
+40,739,879avg: +464,713/mo
fan (6): min 29,060,200 · med 36,440,031 · max 49,974,164
+38,589,153avg: +440,180/mo
fan (6): min 26,228,922 · med 34,856,276 · max 42,843,921
+29,559,026avg: +337,175/mo
fan (6): min 23,402,227 · med 29,394,762 · max 40,017,243
+20,773,195avg: +236,957/mo
fan (6): min 16,288,113 · med 20,830,433 · max 30,493,979
+19,332,098avg: +220,518/mo
fan (6): min 16,024,133 · med 19,028,767 · max 27,140,074
+92,507,612avg: +1,055,220/mo
fan (6): min 55,727,213 · med 85,202,346 · max 137,276,129
Withdrawn cash (USD)0
fan (6): min 0 · med 0 · max 0
264,000median: 3,000/cycle (n=88)
fan (6): min 264,000 · med 264,000 · max 264,000
0
fan (6): min 0 · med 0 · max 0
0
fan (6): min 0 · med 0 · max 0
0
fan (6): min 0 · med 0 · max 0
0
fan (6): min 0 · med 0 · max 0
0
fan (6): min 0 · med 0 · max 0
264,000median: 3,000/cycle (n=88)
fan (6): min 264,000 · med 264,000 · max 264,000
264,000median: 3,000/cycle (n=88)
fan (6): min 264,000 · med 264,000 · max 264,000
264,000median: 3,000/cycle (n=88)
fan (6): min 264,000 · med 264,000 · max 264,000
258,000median: 3,000/cycle (n=86)
fan (6): min 255,000 · med 256,500 · max 258,000
258,000median: 3,000/cycle (n=86)
fan (6): min 255,000 · med 256,500 · max 258,000
258,000median: 3,000/cycle (n=86)
fan (6): min 255,000 · med 256,500 · max 258,000
258,000median: 3,000/cycle (n=86)
fan (6): min 255,000 · med 256,500 · max 258,000
257,119median: 3,000/cycle (n=86)
fan (6): min 254,452 · med 255,373 · max 257,119
250,670median: 3,000/cycle (n=86)
fan (6): min 247,506 · med 249,756 · max 250,993
258,000median: 3,000/cycle (n=86)
fan (6): min 255,000 · med 256,500 · max 258,000
258,000median: 3,000/cycle (n=86)
fan (6): min 255,000 · med 256,500 · max 258,000
250,464median: 3,000/cycle (n=86)
fan (6): min 247,385 · med 249,572 · max 250,892
257,774median: 3,000/cycle (n=86)
fan (6): min 254,969 · med 256,131 · max 258,000
Total wealth (NAV + withdrawn, USD post-tax)
8,757,770+1651.6% of initial
fan (6): min 8,757,770 · med 8,846,851 · max 8,872,927
7,762,456+1461.9% of initial
fan (6): min 7,737,155 · med 7,838,088 · max 7,870,368
182,184,857+36337.0% of initial
fan (6): min 76,586,461 · med 182,184,857 · max 182,184,857
19,906,704+3881.3% of initial
fan (6): min 17,852,649 · med 19,904,805 · max 23,524,738
15,488,303+2997.7% of initial
fan (6): min 13,514,233 · med 15,363,182 · max 15,640,872
39,010,984+7702.2% of initial
fan (6): min 31,159,883 · med 38,914,054 · max 50,689,892
26,216,065+5143.2% of initial
fan (6): min 19,939,392 · med 25,893,657 · max 26,514,977
13,892,161+2695.2% of initial
fan (6): min 11,995,149 · med 13,753,203 · max 14,010,467
23,738,939+4676.4% of initial
fan (6): min 17,740,839 · med 23,400,113 · max 23,886,236
17,572,808+3435.8% of initial
fan (6): min 15,698,551 · med 17,584,946 · max 20,700,862
7,831,885+1466.4% of initial
fan (6): min 5,319,830 · med 6,995,432 · max 9,109,308
18,148,453+3529.7% of initial
fan (6): min 11,933,701 · med 18,798,255 · max 21,027,311
21,500,561+4200.1% of initial
fan (6): min 15,690,815 · med 19,225,124 · max 29,392,073
42,928,327+8485.7% of initial
fan (6): min 30,482,426 · med 42,814,328 · max 58,533,845
41,496,998+8199.4% of initial
fan (6): min 29,820,827 · med 37,198,115 · max 50,732,249
39,339,823+7768.0% of initial
fan (6): min 26,981,024 · med 35,609,236 · max 43,596,339
30,317,026+5963.4% of initial
fan (6): min 24,164,824 · med 30,154,541 · max 40,775,800
21,531,195+4206.2% of initial
fan (6): min 17,050,709 · med 21,589,231 · max 31,248,979
20,082,561+3916.5% of initial
fan (6): min 16,779,298 · med 19,779,990 · max 27,887,983
93,265,386+18553.1% of initial
fan (6): min 56,487,758 · med 85,960,360 · max 138,033,669
CAGR USD48.57%
fan (6): min 48.6% · med 48.6% · max 48.6%
45.57%
fan (6): min 45.5% · med 45.6% · max 45.6%
125.34%
fan (6): min 100.1% · med 125.3% · max 125.3%
66.21%
fan (6): min 63.5% · med 66.1% · max 69.8%
60.62%
fan (6): min 57.4% · med 60.4% · max 60.6%
82.24%
fan (6): min 76.5% · med 82.1% · max 88.7%
72.62%
fan (6): min 66.1% · med 72.3% · max 72.7%
57.96%
fan (6): min 54.5% · med 57.7% · max 58.0%
70.17%
fan (6): min 63.2% · med 69.8% · max 70.2%
63.20%
fan (6): min 60.4% · med 63.1% · max 66.7%
45.56%
fan (6): min 37.6% · med 43.2% · max 48.5%
63.64%
fan (6): min 54.2% · med 64.3% · max 67.0%
67.61%
fan (6): min 60.3% · med 64.8% · max 74.8%
84.33%
fan (6): min 75.7% · med 84.1% · max 92.1%
83.49%
fan (6): min 75.2% · med 80.5% · max 88.4%
82.18%
fan (6): min 72.7% · med 79.5% · max 84.6%
75.85%
fan (6): min 70.2% · med 75.6% · max 83.0%
67.77%
fan (6): min 62.2% · med 67.7% · max 76.6%
66.17%
fan (6): min 61.9% · med 65.7% · max 73.9%
105.15%
fan (6): min 91.4% · med 102.7% · max 116.3%
Max drawdown
-73.6%9,914,718 → 2,614,2942021-11-04 → 2023-01-03
fan (6): min -73.6% · med -73.6% · max -73.6%
-73.8%8,748,430 → 2,288,7432021-11-04 → 2023-01-03
fan (6): min -73.8% · med -73.8% · max -73.8%
-84.7%133,959,173 → 20,484,9982021-11-04 → 2023-01-10
fan (6): min -84.7% · med -84.7% · max -80.3%
-75.1%18,148,828 → 4,525,4332021-11-04 → 2023-01-03
fan (6): min -75.1% · med -73.9% · max -73.1%
-75.5%15,608,775 → 3,826,7632021-11-04 → 2023-01-03
fan (6): min -75.5% · med -75.2% · max -74.4%
-76.6%30,436,283 → 7,126,1342021-11-04 → 2023-01-03
fan (6): min -76.6% · med -74.6% · max -73.2%
-77.2%23,929,490 → 5,447,4862021-11-04 → 2023-01-03
fan (6): min -77.3% · med -76.8% · max -75.2%
-75.6%13,963,558 → 3,405,3332021-11-04 → 2023-01-03
fan (6): min -75.7% · med -75.3% · max -74.6%
-77.3%21,633,618 → 4,906,6002021-11-04 → 2023-01-03
fan (6): min -77.4% · med -76.8% · max -75.3%
-75.2%16,008,747 → 3,972,8762021-11-04 → 2023-01-03
fan (6): min -75.2% · med -74.1% · max -73.3%
-64.8%5,319,855 → 1,874,0932022-01-03 → 2022-12-27
fan (6): min -69.7% · med -64.4% · max -61.4%
-47.8%6,403,037 → 3,339,9352022-01-03 → 2023-01-03
fan (6): min -50.2% · med -46.3% · max -41.4%
-68.6%12,408,424 → 3,901,3122021-11-04 → 2022-12-27
fan (6): min -71.1% · med -67.5% · max -63.7%
-56.4%14,341,734 → 6,251,1472021-11-04 → 2023-01-03
fan (6): min -58.4% · med -54.1% · max -50.0%
-61.0%15,309,370 → 5,969,6182021-11-04 → 2023-01-03
fan (6): min -63.5% · med -58.6% · max -55.1%
-64.9%16,769,442 → 5,882,9362021-11-04 → 2023-01-03
fan (6): min -67.0% · med -62.6% · max -58.4%
-76.6%23,652,985 → 5,533,9292021-11-04 → 2023-01-03
fan (6): min -76.7% · med -74.7% · max -73.2%
-74.9%17,850,218 → 4,474,1292021-11-04 → 2023-01-03
fan (6): min -75.2% · med -71.5% · max -69.2%
-75.0%16,659,709 → 4,169,2382021-11-04 → 2023-01-03
fan (6): min -75.2% · med -71.5% · max -69.3%
-66.7%33,428,341 → 11,143,5882021-11-04 → 2023-01-03
fan (6): min -67.8% · med -63.0% · max -61.4%
Sharpe USD0.88
fan (6): min 0.88 · med 0.88 · max 0.88
0.85
fan (6): min 0.84 · med 0.85 · max 0.85
1.24
fan (6): min 1.15 · med 1.24 · max 1.24
1.02
fan (6): min 1.00 · med 1.02 · max 1.04
0.98
fan (6): min 0.95 · med 0.97 · max 0.98
1.10
fan (6): min 1.07 · med 1.10 · max 1.14
1.05
fan (6): min 1.00 · med 1.04 · max 1.05
0.95
fan (6): min 0.92 · med 0.95 · max 0.95
1.03
fan (6): min 0.97 · med 1.02 · max 1.03
0.99
fan (6): min 0.97 · med 0.99 · max 1.02
0.92
fan (6): min 0.80 · med 0.88 · max 0.95
1.31
fan (6): min 1.16 · med 1.29 · max 1.33
1.08
fan (6): min 1.00 · med 1.05 · max 1.12
1.29
fan (6): min 1.21 · med 1.28 · max 1.33
1.26
fan (6): min 1.17 · med 1.23 · max 1.27
1.22
fan (6): min 1.12 · med 1.20 · max 1.22
1.06
fan (6): min 1.02 · med 1.06 · max 1.11
1.02
fan (6): min 0.97 · med 1.02 · max 1.08
1.01
fan (6): min 0.97 · med 1.00 · max 1.06
1.26
fan (6): min 1.18 · med 1.24 · max 1.31
Premium collected (USD)0
fan (6): min 0 · med 0 · max 0
0
fan (6): min 0 · med 0 · max 0
0
fan (6): min 0 · med 0 · max 0
0
fan (6): min 0 · med 0 · max 0
0
fan (6): min 0 · med 0 · max 0
0
fan (6): min 0 · med 0 · max 0
0
fan (6): min 0 · med 0 · max 0
0
fan (6): min 0 · med 0 · max 0
0
fan (6): min 0 · med 0 · max 0
0
fan (6): min 0 · med 0 · max 0
12,098,174median: 135,391/cycle(n=86)
fan (6): min 8,683,600 · med 11,752,008 · max 14,316,947
21,781,687median: 201,540/cycle(n=86)
fan (6): min 15,610,577 · med 21,616,540 · max 25,736,888
25,334,175median: 265,699/cycle(n=86)
fan (6): min 18,998,578 · med 23,695,219 · max 33,689,721
42,231,871median: 351,951/cycle(n=86)
fan (6): min 31,912,122 · med 40,433,996 · max 56,954,995
28,374,480median: 240,285/cycle(n=86)
fan (6): min 21,957,740 · med 26,146,246 · max 36,191,473
18,783,435median: 162,607/cycle(n=86)
fan (6): min 13,557,510 · med 17,764,329 · max 23,103,993
293,850median: 3,309/cycle(n=86)
fan (6): min 291,708 · med 297,634 · max 303,565
293,850median: 3,309/cycle(n=86)
fan (6): min 291,708 · med 297,634 · max 303,565
272,673median: 3,185/cycle(n=86)
fan (6): min 266,632 · med 270,261 · max 272,673
69,775,612median: 490,362/cycle(n=86)
fan (6): min 48,047,907 · med 63,331,078 · max 101,752,866
Upside lost to assignments (USD)
Σ over assigned cycles of (spot at expiry − strike) × shares assigned: gains the CC capped away.
——————————-14,147,190-24,312,157-27,428,161-44,428,610-30,306,154-21,226,690-519,386-519,386-656,031-70,021,191
Net (premium − upside lost) USD
Total CC premium collected minus upside lost to assignments. Positive = the CC overlay paid for itself; negative = assignments cost more than the premium earned.
——————————-2,049,017-2,530,470-2,093,985-2,196,739-1,931,674-2,443,255-225,536-225,536-383,358-245,578
X3 P&L on assigned cycles (USD)
X3 sleeve P&L during the cycles where the CC was assigned — the rallies that capped the call usually lifted X3 too.
——————————+7,080,900+11,832,514+32,098,154+50,915,100+48,150,776+40,327,350+49,080,870+38,863,288+29,336,799+181,678,933
Net + X3 offset on assigned (USD)
Net (premium − upside lost) plus the X3 sleeve's P&L during assigned cycles — credits X3 for cushioning the same rallies that capped the call.
——————————+5,031,883+9,302,044+30,004,168+48,718,361+46,219,102+37,884,095+48,855,335+38,637,753+28,953,441+181,433,354
Median premium % of NAV/cycle—
fan (6): min 0.00% · med 0.00% · max 0.00%
—
fan (6): min 0.00% · med 0.00% · max 0.00%
—
fan (6): min 0.00% · med 0.00% · max 0.00%
—
fan (6): min 0.00% · med 0.00% · max 0.00%
—
fan (6): min 0.00% · med 0.00% · max 0.00%
—
fan (6): min 0.00% · med 0.00% · max 0.00%
—
fan (6): min 0.00% · med 0.00% · max 0.00%
—
fan (6): min 0.00% · med 0.00% · max 0.00%
—
fan (6): min 0.00% · med 0.00% · max 0.00%
—
fan (6): min 0.00% · med 0.00% · max 0.00%
3.55%
fan (6): min 3.42% · med 3.71% · max 4.00%
3.55%
fan (6): min 3.43% · med 3.72% · max 4.02%
2.93%
fan (6): min 2.83% · med 3.06% · max 3.30%
2.93%
fan (6): min 2.83% · med 3.06% · max 3.31%
1.91%
fan (6): min 1.84% · med 1.99% · max 2.21%
1.20%
fan (6): min 1.14% · med 1.25% · max 1.45%
0.03%
fan (6): min 0.02% · med 0.03% · max 0.03%
0.03%
fan (6): min 0.03% · med 0.04% · max 0.04%
0.04%
fan (6): min 0.03% · med 0.04% · max 0.04%
2.09%
fan (6): min 2.02% · med 2.19% · max 2.36%
# CC cycles0
fan (6): min 0 · med 0 · max 0
0
fan (6): min 0 · med 0 · max 0
0
fan (6): min 0 · med 0 · max 0
0
fan (6): min 0 · med 0 · max 0
0
fan (6): min 0 · med 0 · max 0
0
fan (6): min 0 · med 0 · max 0
0
fan (6): min 0 · med 0 · max 0
0
fan (6): min 0 · med 0 · max 0
0
fan (6): min 0 · med 0 · max 0
0
fan (6): min 0 · med 0 · max 0
86
fan (6): min 85 · med 86 · max 86
86
fan (6): min 85 · med 86 · max 86
86
fan (6): min 85 · med 86 · max 86
86
fan (6): min 85 · med 86 · max 86
86
fan (6): min 85 · med 86 · max 86
86
fan (6): min 85 · med 86 · max 86
86
fan (6): min 85 · med 86 · max 86
86
fan (6): min 85 · med 86 · max 86
86
fan (6): min 85 · med 86 · max 86
86
fan (6): min 85 · med 86 · max 86
# CC assigned0 (0.0%)
fan (6): min 0 · med 0 · max 0
0 (0.0%)
fan (6): min 0 · med 0 · max 0
0 (0.0%)
fan (6): min 0 · med 0 · max 0
0 (0.0%)
fan (6): min 0 · med 0 · max 0
0 (0.0%)
fan (6): min 0 · med 0 · max 0
0 (0.0%)
fan (6): min 0 · med 0 · max 0
0 (0.0%)
fan (6): min 0 · med 0 · max 0
0 (0.0%)
fan (6): min 0 · med 0 · max 0
0 (0.0%)
fan (6): min 0 · med 0 · max 0
0 (0.0%)
fan (6): min 0 · med 0 · max 0
38 (44.2%)
fan (6): min 33 · med 34 · max 40
38 (44.2%)
fan (6): min 33 · med 34 · max 40
38 (44.2%)
fan (6): min 33 · med 34 · max 40
38 (44.2%)
fan (6): min 33 · med 34 · max 40
28 (32.6%)
fan (6): min 23 · med 28 · max 29
21 (24.4%)
fan (6): min 20 · med 22 · max 23
38 (44.2%)
fan (6): min 33 · med 34 · max 40
38 (44.2%)
fan (6): min 33 · med 34 · max 40
21 (24.4%)
fan (6): min 20 · med 22 · max 23
38 (44.2%)
fan (6): min 33 · med 34 · max 40
# X3 entries / exits0 / 00 / 0144 / 144144 / 144144 / 144144 / 144144 / 144144 / 144144 / 144144 / 144144 / 144144 / 144144 / 144144 / 144144 / 144144 / 144144 / 144144 / 144144 / 144144 / 144
Avg X3 cycle win / loss+0.0% / +0.0%+0.0% / +0.0%+55.4% / -15.5%+55.4% / -15.5%+55.4% / -15.5%+55.4% / -15.5%+55.4% / -15.5%+55.4% / -15.5%+55.4% / -15.5%+55.4% / -15.5%+55.4% / -15.5%+55.4% / -15.5%+55.4% / -15.5%+55.4% / -15.5%+55.4% / -15.5%+55.4% / -15.5%+55.4% / -15.5%+55.4% / -15.5%+55.4% / -15.5%+55.4% / -15.5%
Schablonskatt (USD)258,029224,0536,885,337557,378448,7651,086,087762,960397,537685,505487,322188,749371,362519,132918,976912,728909,754839,541639,013596,1882,224,639

Robustness across timing variants

Dispersion across 6 timing variants (anchor × X3-timing) per strategy. Tight spread (✓ robust) means the headline numbers don't depend on the timing knob choice. Wide spread (⚠ luck-sensitive) means the backtest's headline is partly luck — judge that strategy by the median of the family, not the highlighted variant.
StrategyMetricMinMedianMaxSpread (max − min)
stockonlyCAGR %+48.6%+48.6%+48.6%+0.0% ✓ robust
Max DD %-73.6%-73.6%-73.6%+0.0% ✓ robust
Increased NAV (USD)+8,257,770+8,341,770+8,366,361+108,591
Total premium (USD)+0+0+0+0
Sharpe0.880.880.880.00 ✓ robust
Net put P&L (USD)+0+0+0+0
stockonly_w3kusdCAGR %+45.5%+45.6%+45.6%+0.1% ✓ robust
Max DD %-73.8%-73.8%-73.8%+0.0% ✓ robust
Increased NAV (USD)+6,976,155+7,071,299+7,102,841+126,686
Total premium (USD)+0+0+0+0
Sharpe0.840.850.850.00 ✓ robust
Net put P&L (USD)+0+0+0+0
0_100CAGR %+100.1%+125.3%+125.3%+25.2% ⚠ luck-sensitive
Max DD %-84.7%-84.7%-80.3%+4.4%
Increased NAV (USD)+76,086,461+181,684,857+181,684,857+105,598,396
Total premium (USD)+0+0+0+0
Sharpe1.151.241.240.09 ✓ robust
Net put P&L (USD)+0+0+0+0
85_15CAGR %+63.5%+66.1%+69.8%+6.3% ⚠ luck-sensitive
Max DD %-75.1%-73.9%-73.1%+2.0% ✓ robust
Increased NAV (USD)+17,347,067+19,402,645+23,020,419+5,673,351
Total premium (USD)+0+0+0+0
Sharpe1.001.021.040.05 ✓ robust
Net put P&L (USD)+0+0+0+0
85_15_trimCAGR %+57.4%+60.4%+60.6%+3.2% ⚠ luck-sensitive
Max DD %-75.5%-75.2%-74.4%+1.1% ✓ robust
Increased NAV (USD)+13,008,652+14,863,182+15,136,553+2,127,901
Total premium (USD)+0+0+0+0
Sharpe0.950.970.980.03 ✓ robust
Net put P&L (USD)+0+0+0+0
70_30CAGR %+76.5%+82.1%+88.7%+12.2% ⚠ luck-sensitive
Max DD %-76.6%-74.6%-73.2%+3.5%
Increased NAV (USD)+30,655,287+38,412,276+50,186,335+19,531,048
Total premium (USD)+0+0+0+0
Sharpe1.071.101.140.08 ✓ robust
Net put P&L (USD)+0+0+0+0
70_30_trimCAGR %+66.1%+72.3%+72.7%+6.7% ⚠ luck-sensitive
Max DD %-77.3%-76.8%-75.2%+2.1% ✓ robust
Increased NAV (USD)+19,434,795+25,393,657+26,011,420+6,576,625
Total premium (USD)+0+0+0+0
Sharpe1.001.041.050.05 ✓ robust
Net put P&L (USD)+0+0+0+0
85_15_trim_w3kusdCAGR %+54.5%+57.7%+58.0%+3.4% ⚠ luck-sensitive
Max DD %-75.7%-75.3%-74.6%+1.1% ✓ robust
Increased NAV (USD)+11,228,607+12,992,203+13,245,178+2,016,571
Total premium (USD)+0+0+0+0
Sharpe0.920.950.950.03 ✓ robust
Net put P&L (USD)+0+0+0+0
70_30_trim_w3kusdCAGR %+63.2%+69.8%+70.2%+6.9% ⚠ luck-sensitive
Max DD %-77.4%-76.8%-75.3%+2.1% ✓ robust
Increased NAV (USD)+16,975,282+22,639,113+23,121,709+6,146,428
Total premium (USD)+0+0+0+0
Sharpe0.971.021.030.05 ✓ robust
Net put P&L (USD)+0+0+0+0
85_15_w3kusdCAGR %+60.4%+63.1%+66.7%+6.3% ⚠ luck-sensitive
Max DD %-75.2%-74.1%-73.3%+1.9% ✓ robust
Increased NAV (USD)+14,932,009+16,821,802+19,935,573+5,003,564
Total premium (USD)+0+0+0+0
Sharpe0.970.991.020.05 ✓ robust
Net put P&L (USD)+0+0+0+0
85_15_cc05_w3kusdCAGR %+37.6%+43.2%+48.5%+10.9% ⚠ luck-sensitive
Max DD %-69.7%-64.4%-61.4%+8.3% ⚠ luck-sensitive
Increased NAV (USD)+4,557,511+6,236,141+8,349,989+3,792,477
Total premium (USD)+8,683,600+11,752,008+14,316,947+5,633,348
Sharpe0.800.880.950.14
Net put P&L (USD)+0+0+0+0
85_15_cc05_put15_w3kusdCAGR %+54.2%+64.3%+67.0%+12.8% ⚠ luck-sensitive
Max DD %-50.2%-46.3%-41.4%+8.8% ⚠ luck-sensitive
Increased NAV (USD)+11,171,382+18,038,964+20,272,311+9,100,929
Total premium (USD)+15,610,577+21,616,540+25,736,888+10,126,311
Sharpe1.161.291.330.16
Net put P&L (USD)-4,595,911-3,786,257-3,430,530+1,165,381
70_30_cc05_w3kusdCAGR %+60.3%+64.8%+74.8%+14.5% ⚠ luck-sensitive
Max DD %-71.1%-67.5%-63.7%+7.3% ⚠ luck-sensitive
Increased NAV (USD)+14,929,258+18,466,326+28,633,516+13,704,257
Total premium (USD)+18,998,578+23,695,219+33,689,721+14,691,143
Sharpe1.001.051.120.12
Net put P&L (USD)+0+0+0+0
70_30_cc05_put15_w3kusdCAGR %+75.7%+84.1%+92.1%+16.5% ⚠ luck-sensitive
Max DD %-58.4%-54.1%-50.0%+8.4% ⚠ luck-sensitive
Increased NAV (USD)+29,720,869+42,055,530+57,775,288+28,054,419
Total premium (USD)+31,912,122+40,433,996+56,954,995+25,042,873
Sharpe1.211.281.330.12
Net put P&L (USD)-10,044,553-6,918,854-5,924,875+4,119,678
70_30_cc10_put15_w3kusdCAGR %+75.2%+80.5%+88.4%+13.3% ⚠ luck-sensitive
Max DD %-63.5%-58.6%-55.1%+8.5% ⚠ luck-sensitive
Increased NAV (USD)+29,060,200+36,440,031+49,974,164+20,913,963
Total premium (USD)+21,957,740+26,146,246+36,191,473+14,233,734
Sharpe1.171.231.270.10 ✓ robust
Net put P&L (USD)-9,187,079-6,932,501-5,477,380+3,709,699
70_30_cc15_put15_w3kusdCAGR %+72.7%+79.5%+84.6%+11.9% ⚠ luck-sensitive
Max DD %-67.0%-62.6%-58.4%+8.6% ⚠ luck-sensitive
Increased NAV (USD)+26,228,922+34,856,276+42,843,921+16,614,999
Total premium (USD)+13,557,510+17,764,329+23,103,993+9,546,483
Sharpe1.121.201.220.10
Net put P&L (USD)-8,513,565-6,950,534-4,850,480+3,663,086
70_30_cc05_target3k_w3kusdCAGR %+70.2%+75.6%+83.0%+12.8% ⚠ luck-sensitive
Max DD %-76.7%-74.7%-73.2%+3.5%
Increased NAV (USD)+23,402,227+29,394,762+40,017,243+16,615,016
Total premium (USD)+291,708+297,634+303,565+11,858
Sharpe1.021.061.110.08 ✓ robust
Net put P&L (USD)+0+0+0+0
70_30_cc05_target3k_put15_w3kusdCAGR %+62.2%+67.7%+76.6%+14.4% ⚠ luck-sensitive
Max DD %-75.2%-71.5%-69.2%+5.9% ⚠ luck-sensitive
Increased NAV (USD)+16,288,113+20,830,433+30,493,979+14,205,866
Total premium (USD)+291,708+297,634+303,565+11,858
Sharpe0.971.021.080.11
Net put P&L (USD)-7,007,056-5,834,052-4,581,188+2,425,868
70_30_cc15_target3k_put15_w3kusdCAGR %+61.9%+65.7%+73.9%+12.0% ⚠ luck-sensitive
Max DD %-75.2%-71.5%-69.3%+5.9% ⚠ luck-sensitive
Increased NAV (USD)+16,024,133+19,028,767+27,140,074+11,115,941
Total premium (USD)+266,632+270,261+272,673+6,041
Sharpe0.971.001.060.09 ✓ robust
Net put P&L (USD)-6,234,504-5,398,605-4,248,665+1,985,839
50_50_cc05_put15_w3kusdCAGR %+91.4%+102.7%+116.3%+24.9% ⚠ luck-sensitive
Max DD %-67.8%-63.0%-61.4%+6.5% ⚠ luck-sensitive
Increased NAV (USD)+55,727,213+85,202,346+137,276,129+81,548,915
Total premium (USD)+48,047,907+63,331,078+101,752,866+53,704,959
Sharpe1.181.241.310.13
Net put P&L (USD)-17,792,925-11,435,749-7,976,958+9,815,968

Strategy response to TSLA cycle moves (per-cycle returns by TSLA-bucket, SPEC §6.3 + §6.4)

Per CC cycle, bucketed by TSLA's window return. X3 sleeve columns isolate X3 behavior (identical across strategies sharing schedule + sleeve weight). Per-strategy columns show median % / mean % of total cycle return for cycles in that bucket.

TSLA bucketSample countAvg TSLA return %X3 sleeve return % (med / mean)stockonlystockonly_w3kusd0_10085_1585_15_trim70_3070_30_trim85_15_trim_w3kusd70_30_trim_w3kusd85_15_w3kusd85_15_cc05_w3kusd85_15_cc05_put15_w3kusd70_30_cc05_w3kusd70_30_cc05_put15_w3kusd70_30_cc10_put15_w3kusd70_30_cc15_put15_w3kusd70_30_cc05_target3k_w3kusd70_30_cc05_target3k_put15_w3kusd70_30_cc15_target3k_put15_w3kusd50_50_cc05_put15_w3kusd
-37.5% to -32.5%1-32.6%-22.5% / -22.5%
fan (4): min -22.5% · med -20.9% · max -5.2%
-32.6% / -32.6%
fan (4): min -37.2% · med -34.7% · max -32.6%
-32.7% / -32.7%
fan (4): min -37.3% · med -34.7% · max -32.7%
-22.5% / -22.5%
fan (4): min -22.5% · med -20.9% · max -5.2%
-31.1% / -31.1%
fan (4): min -34.5% · med -31.8% · max -30.7%
-31.8% / -31.8%
fan (4): min -36.0% · med -33.0% · max -31.8%
-29.6% / -29.6%
fan (4): min -31.8% · med -30.1% · max -26.2%
-30.7% / -30.7%
fan (4): min -34.6% · med -31.3% · max -30.2%
-31.8% / -31.8%
fan (4): min -36.0% · med -33.0% · max -31.8%
-30.7% / -30.7%
fan (4): min -34.6% · med -31.3% · max -30.2%
-31.1% / -31.1%
fan (4): min -34.5% · med -31.8% · max -30.7%
-27.8% / -27.8%
fan (4): min -31.5% · med -28.7% · max -27.8%
-12.2% / -12.2%
fan (4): min -13.2% · med -12.5% · max -9.4%
-26.8% / -26.8%
fan (4): min -29.4% · med -27.4% · max -24.1%
-14.0% / -14.0%
fan (4): min -14.9% · med -12.7% · max -11.0%
-15.2% / -15.2%
fan (4): min -16.0% · med -13.8% · max -12.3%
-16.0% / -16.0%
fan (4): min -16.5% · med -14.6% · max -13.0%
-29.6% / -29.6%
fan (4): min -31.8% · med -30.1% · max -26.2%
-18.4% / -18.4%
fan (4): min -19.3% · med -16.8% · max -15.1%
-18.4% / -18.4%
fan (4): min -19.3% · med -16.8% · max -15.1%
-16.4% / -16.4%
fan (4): min -17.0% · med -14.9% · max -9.7%
-32.5% to -27.5%1-27.6%-18.9% / -18.9%
fan (6): min -20.0% · med -19.3% · max +3.8%
-27.6% / -27.6%
fan (6): min -30.8% · med -30.0% · max -27.6%
-27.6% / -27.6%
fan (6): min -30.9% · med -30.0% · max -27.6%
-18.9% / -18.9%
fan (6): min -20.0% · med -19.3% · max +3.8%
-26.3% / -26.3%
fan (6): min -29.0% · med -28.5% · max -23.4%
-26.7% / -26.7%
fan (6): min -29.6% · med -29.0% · max -23.4%
-25.0% / -25.0%
fan (6): min -27.3% · med -26.9% · max -18.6%
-25.8% / -25.8%
fan (6): min -28.7% · med -27.6% · max -18.6%
-26.7% / -26.7%
fan (6): min -29.6% · med -29.0% · max -23.6%
-25.8% / -25.8%
fan (6): min -28.7% · med -27.6% · max -18.8%
-26.3% / -26.3%
fan (6): min -29.1% · med -28.5% · max -23.6%
-23.7% / -23.7%
fan (6): min -26.7% · med -26.1% · max -20.7%
-12.3% / -12.3%
fan (6): min -15.9% · med -13.1% · max -10.9%
-22.9% / -22.9%
fan (6): min -25.5% · med -24.8% · max -16.3%
-13.5% / -13.5%
fan (6): min -16.6% · med -14.1% · max -8.3%
-14.5% / -14.5%
fan (6): min -17.4% · med -15.0% · max -10.5%
-15.0% / -15.0%
fan (6): min -18.0% · med -15.6% · max -11.6%
-25.0% / -25.0%
fan (6): min -27.3% · med -26.9% · max -18.6%
-16.5% / -16.5%
fan (6): min -19.5% · med -17.6% · max -13.2%
-16.5% / -16.5%
fan (6): min -19.5% · med -17.6% · max -13.1%
-15.0% / -15.0%
fan (6): min -17.6% · med -15.6% · max -4.9%
-27.5% to -22.5%2-24.6%+1.9% / +1.9%
fan (6): min -25.0% · med -10.8% · max +1.9%
-24.6% / -24.6%
fan (6): min -27.4% · med -25.9% · max -24.3%
-24.8% / -24.8%
fan (6): min -27.4% · med -26.0% · max -24.5%
+1.9% / +1.9%
fan (6): min -25.0% · med -10.8% · max +1.9%
-20.6% / -20.6%
fan (6): min -26.1% · med -23.4% · max -20.6%
-20.9% / -20.9%
fan (6): min -26.4% · med -23.9% · max -20.9%
-16.7% / -16.7%
fan (6): min -25.7% · med -21.2% · max -16.7%
-17.1% / -17.1%
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-8.8% / -8.8%
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-8.7% / -8.7%
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-20.9% / -20.9%
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-19.6% / -19.9%
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-20.7% / -20.6%
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+24.9% / +24.9%
fan (6): min +23.3% · med +25.5% · max +27.3%
+24.9% / +24.9%
fan (6): min +22.7% · med +25.3% · max +27.3%
+27.9% / +27.9%
fan (6): min +26.4% · med +40.0% · max +74.3%
+25.4% / +25.4%
fan (6): min +23.4% · med +27.5% · max +32.9%
+25.3% / +25.3%
fan (6): min +23.3% · med +26.9% · max +30.7%
+25.8% / +25.8%
fan (6): min +24.0% · med +29.7% · max +40.0%
+25.6% / +25.6%
fan (6): min +23.6% · med +28.6% · max +37.0%
+25.2% / +25.2%
fan (6): min +23.0% · med +26.7% · max +30.7%
+25.6% / +25.6%
fan (6): min +23.4% · med +28.2% · max +37.0%
+25.3% / +25.3%
fan (6): min +23.1% · med +27.2% · max +32.9%
+12.1% / +12.1%
fan (6): min +12.1% · med +14.0% · max +19.1%
+12.1% / +12.1%
fan (6): min +12.1% · med +14.0% · max +19.2%
+14.9% / +14.9%
fan (6): min +14.9% · med +18.5% · max +28.7%
+14.9% / +14.9%
fan (6): min +14.9% · med +18.5% · max +28.7%
+17.2% / +17.2%
fan (6): min +17.1% · med +20.9% · max +30.7%
+19.5% / +19.5%
fan (6): min +19.5% · med +23.1% · max +33.0%
+25.7% / +25.7%
fan (6): min +22.9% · med +28.2% · max +39.9%
+24.3% / +24.3%
fan (6): min +22.2% · med +26.8% · max +38.5%
+24.2% / +24.2%
fan (6): min +22.3% · med +26.6% · max +38.4%
+18.6% / +18.6%
fan (6): min +17.9% · med +24.5% · max +41.5%
+27.5% to +32.5%3+30.2%+87.7% / +64.7%
fan (6): min +21.1% · med +66.0% · max +87.7%
+30.4% / +30.2%
fan (6): min +29.4% · med +30.8% · max +31.5%
+29.6% / +29.9%
fan (6): min +29.3% · med +30.6% · max +30.9%
+87.7% / +64.7%
fan (6): min +21.1% · med +66.0% · max +87.7%
+40.3% / +35.4%
fan (6): min +29.3% · med +36.1% · max +40.3%
+35.8% / +33.0%
fan (6): min +29.9% · med +34.1% · max +37.1%
+48.7% / +40.5%
fan (6): min +27.8% · med +42.1% · max +48.7%
+42.3% / +36.2%
fan (6): min +28.9% · med +36.9% · max +46.0%
+35.5% / +32.8%
fan (6): min +29.8% · med +33.8% · max +37.1%
+42.6% / +36.3%
fan (6): min +28.9% · med +36.8% · max +45.9%
+40.3% / +35.0%
fan (6): min +29.2% · med +35.8% · max +40.3%
+21.1% / +17.3%
fan (6): min +11.6% · med +20.4% · max +21.7%
+21.2% / +17.3%
fan (6): min +11.8% · med +20.5% · max +21.7%
+33.2% / +25.6%
fan (6): min +13.4% · med +27.2% · max +33.3%
+33.2% / +25.6%
fan (6): min +13.4% · med +27.2% · max +33.3%
+35.4% / +27.8%
fan (6): min +15.7% · med +29.2% · max +35.5%
+38.0% / +30.8%
fan (6): min +17.0% · med +31.9% · max +38.2%
+40.6% / +36.4%
fan (6): min +27.7% · med +38.1% · max +45.9%
+41.2% / +35.8%
fan (6): min +25.5% · med +36.6% · max +44.5%
+42.1% / +36.1%
fan (6): min +25.3% · med +36.9% · max +44.5%
+48.8% / +36.7%
fan (6): min +15.6% · med +38.1% · max +48.8%
+32.5% to +37.5%2+35.5%+79.7% / +79.7%
fan (6): min +28.8% · med +60.4% · max +79.7%
+35.5% / +35.5%
fan (6): min +34.9% · med +35.5% · max +37.1%
+34.9% / +34.9%
fan (6): min +34.5% · med +35.0% · max +36.2%
+79.7% / +79.7%
fan (6): min +28.8% · med +60.4% · max +79.7%
+42.1% / +42.1%
fan (6): min +33.0% · med +39.2% · max +42.1%
+42.1% / +42.1%
fan (6): min +33.3% · med +38.8% · max +42.1%
+48.8% / +48.8%
fan (6): min +32.3% · med +43.0% · max +48.8%
+48.6% / +48.6%
fan (6): min +32.8% · med +42.1% · max +48.6%
+41.4% / +41.4%
fan (6): min +33.3% · med +38.1% · max +41.4%
+48.0% / +48.0%
fan (6): min +32.8% · med +41.4% · max +48.0%
+41.5% / +41.5%
fan (6): min +33.0% · med +38.5% · max +41.5%
+20.6% / +20.6%
fan (6): min +15.1% · med +17.7% · max +20.6%
+20.6% / +20.6%
fan (6): min +15.1% · med +17.8% · max +20.6%
+30.9% / +30.9%
fan (6): min +16.1% · med +25.0% · max +30.9%
+30.9% / +30.9%
fan (6): min +16.1% · med +25.0% · max +30.9%
+33.2% / +33.2%
fan (6): min +18.1% · med +27.3% · max +33.2%
+35.5% / +35.5%
fan (6): min +20.4% · med +29.6% · max +35.5%
+44.3% / +44.3%
fan (6): min +32.1% · med +39.4% · max +44.3%
+43.9% / +43.9%
fan (6): min +31.6% · med +38.0% · max +43.9%
+40.9% / +40.9%
fan (6): min +31.5% · med +35.5% · max +40.9%
+44.6% / +44.6%
fan (6): min +19.7% · med +34.6% · max +44.6%
+37.5% to +42.5%1+41.0%+94.5% / +94.5%
fan (6): min +94.5% · med +120.8% · max +126.3%
+41.0% / +41.0%
fan (6): min +38.2% · med +40.5% · max +41.0%
+40.4% / +40.4%
fan (6): min +38.1% · med +40.3% · max +40.6%
+94.5% / +94.5%
fan (6): min +94.5% · med +120.8% · max +126.3%
+49.0% / +49.0%
fan (6): min +49.0% · med +51.1% · max +53.4%
+49.0% / +49.0%
fan (6): min +47.8% · med +49.1% · max +50.8%
+57.0% / +57.0%
fan (6): min +57.0% · med +63.5% · max +66.2%
+57.0% / +57.0%
fan (6): min +56.1% · med +57.9% · max +63.3%
+48.5% / +48.5%
fan (6): min +47.7% · med +48.8% · max +50.7%
+56.6% / +56.6%
fan (6): min +56.1% · med +57.7% · max +63.3%
+48.5% / +48.5%
fan (6): min +48.5% · med +51.0% · max +53.2%
+28.9% / +28.9%
fan (6): min +26.3% · med +27.7% · max +28.9%
+29.0% / +29.0%
fan (6): min +26.3% · med +27.8% · max +29.0%
+40.5% / +40.5%
fan (6): min +40.5% · med +43.0% · max +44.8%
+40.6% / +40.6%
fan (6): min +40.6% · med +43.1% · max +44.9%
+42.5% / +42.5%
fan (6): min +42.5% · med +45.6% · max +47.5%
+43.2% / +43.2%
fan (6): min +43.2% · med +47.9% · max +50.1%
+55.8% / +55.8%
fan (6): min +55.8% · med +63.2% · max +65.3%
+49.2% / +49.2%
fan (6): min +49.2% · med +61.9% · max +64.3%
+49.1% / +49.1%
fan (6): min +49.1% · med +61.6% · max +63.7%
+56.0% / +56.0%
fan (6): min +56.0% · med +65.3% · max +68.2%
+42.5% to +47.5%2+44.1%+188.8% / +188.8%
fan (6): min +94.5% · med +143.5% · max +261.5%
+44.1% / +44.1%
fan (6): min +44.1% · med +44.7% · max +46.1%
+44.0% / +44.0%
fan (6): min +44.0% · med +44.5% · max +45.5%
+188.8% / +188.8%
fan (6): min +94.5% · med +143.5% · max +261.5%
+65.8% / +65.8%
fan (6): min +52.0% · med +59.7% · max +76.9%
+58.6% / +58.6%
fan (6): min +52.0% · med +55.5% · max +63.5%
+87.5% / +87.5%
fan (6): min +59.5% · med +74.5% · max +109.5%
+74.9% / +74.9%
fan (6): min +59.5% · med +67.1% · max +85.6%
+58.6% / +58.6%
fan (6): min +51.5% · med +55.4% · max +63.5%
+75.0% / +75.0%
fan (6): min +59.1% · med +67.1% · max +85.7%
+65.8% / +65.8%
fan (6): min +51.6% · med +59.7% · max +76.9%
+38.3% / +38.3%
fan (6): min +29.9% · med +33.0% · max +46.2%
+38.3% / +38.3%
fan (6): min +30.1% · med +33.0% · max +45.7%
+64.9% / +64.9%
fan (6): min +41.4% · med +52.6% · max +84.3%
+64.9% / +64.9%
fan (6): min +41.4% · med +52.5% · max +83.7%
+66.3% / +66.3%
fan (6): min +42.9% · med +54.4% · max +85.4%
+68.3% / +68.3%
fan (6): min +44.0% · med +56.4% · max +87.7%
+87.1% / +87.1%
fan (6): min +58.2% · med +74.2% · max +109.1%
+84.0% / +84.0%
fan (6): min +51.4% · med +71.7% · max +106.1%
+83.2% / +83.2%
fan (6): min +51.3% · med +71.2% · max +105.0%
+100.3% / +100.3%
fan (6): min +56.5% · med +78.5% · max +134.5%
+47.5% to +52.5%3+50.4%+152.7% / +151.6%
fan (4): min +87.9% · med +140.2% · max +180.8%
+51.0% / +50.4%
fan (4): min +49.0% · med +50.3% · max +51.9%
+50.4% / +50.0%
fan (4): min +48.6% · med +49.8% · max +51.6%
+152.7% / +151.6%
fan (4): min +87.9% · med +140.2% · max +180.8%
+64.6% / +65.6%
fan (4): min +54.8% · med +63.9% · max +68.0%
+63.8% / +62.1%
fan (4): min +53.4% · med +63.2% · max +64.3%
+80.2% / +80.7%
fan (4): min +60.7% · med +77.4% · max +87.9%
+78.8% / +74.8%
fan (4): min +58.2% · med +76.2% · max +79.3%
+63.6% / +62.4%
fan (4): min +53.1% · med +63.0% · max +64.1%
+78.7% / +75.7%
fan (4): min +57.9% · med +76.0% · max +79.2%
+64.4% / +65.2%
fan (4): min +54.5% · med +63.7% · max +68.0%
+35.9% / +34.0%
fan (4): min +23.8% · med +32.6% · max +36.2%
+36.0% / +34.1%
fan (4): min +23.8% · med +32.7% · max +36.2%
+56.6% / +54.8%
fan (4): min +35.1% · med +51.6% · max +60.1%
+56.7% / +54.8%
fan (4): min +35.1% · med +51.7% · max +60.1%
+58.7% / +56.5%
fan (4): min +36.6% · med +53.7% · max +61.5%
+60.7% / +58.7%
fan (4): min +37.5% · med +55.9% · max +63.9%
+79.2% / +78.4%
fan (4): min +59.3% · med +76.3% · max +87.4%
+76.1% / +76.5%
fan (4): min +55.6% · med +73.0% · max +85.2%
+75.8% / +74.7%
fan (4): min +54.7% · med +72.6% · max +83.5%
+84.1% / +82.4%
fan (4): min +50.1% · med +76.9% · max +94.5%
+52.5% to +57.5%1+54.7%+150.5% / +150.5%
fan (3): min +82.4% · med +150.5% · max +150.5%
+54.7% / +54.7%
fan (3): min +53.4% · med +54.7% · max +56.3%
+54.5% / +54.5%
fan (3): min +53.2% · med +54.5% · max +56.2%
+150.5% / +150.5%
fan (3): min +82.4% · med +150.5% · max +150.5%
+69.1% / +69.1%
fan (3): min +60.2% · med +68.0% · max +69.1%
+69.1% / +69.1%
fan (3): min +59.1% · med +68.0% · max +69.1%
+83.4% / +83.4%
fan (3): min +64.1% · med +82.5% · max +83.4%
+83.4% / +83.4%
fan (3): min +62.2% · med +82.5% · max +83.4%
+68.9% / +68.9%
fan (3): min +59.1% · med +67.8% · max +68.9%
+83.3% / +83.3%
fan (3): min +62.2% · med +82.4% · max +83.3%
+68.9% / +68.9%
fan (3): min +60.2% · med +67.8% · max +68.9%
+35.0% / +35.0%
fan (3): min +22.5% · med +34.5% · max +35.0%
+35.1% / +35.1%
fan (3): min +22.4% · med +34.6% · max +35.1%
+55.4% / +55.4%
fan (3): min +33.0% · med +55.1% · max +55.4%
+55.4% / +55.4%
fan (3): min +33.0% · med +55.1% · max +55.4%
+57.1% / +57.1%
fan (3): min +35.2% · med +57.1% · max +57.3%
+59.3% / +59.3%
fan (3): min +37.1% · med +58.8% · max +59.3%
+82.8% / +82.8%
fan (3): min +64.0% · med +81.8% · max +82.8%
+81.0% / +81.0%
fan (3): min +62.8% · med +79.4% · max +81.0%
+80.5% / +80.5%
fan (3): min +62.7% · med +79.0% · max +80.5%
+82.6% / +82.6%
fan (3): min +47.1% · med +82.4% · max +82.6%
Overall88+1703.2%+37714.0%+1651.6%+1461.9%+36337.0%+3881.3%+2997.7%+7702.2%+5143.2%+2695.2%+4676.4%+3435.8%+1466.4%+3529.7%+4200.1%+8485.7%+8199.4%+7768.0%+5963.4%+4206.2%+3916.5%+18553.1%

Premium yield per cycle (SPEC §6.8)

For each CC cycle: premium received ÷ value of the stock being covered (n_contracts × 100 × spot_at_sale) × 100. Strike-comparable yield, scale-invariant — depends only on strike distance, DTE and IV, not on portfolio size or year. With a monthly schedule this is a per-month yield; multiply by 12 for a rough annualized read (ignores compounding and assignment losses). The bottom row shows realized cashflow extremes in USD (in target_cashflow mode integer-contract rounding can push a single cycle past the cited target on high-IV days). Histograms below the table show the per-cycle USD distribution for each strategy side-by-side.

Statstockonly
full coverage
stockonly_w3kusd
full coverage
0_100
full coverage
85_15
full coverage
85_15_trim
full coverage
70_30
full coverage
70_30_trim
full coverage
85_15_trim_w3kusd
full coverage
70_30_trim_w3kusd
full coverage
85_15_w3kusd
full coverage
85_15_cc05_w3kusd
full coverage
85_15_cc05_put15_w3kusd
full coverage
70_30_cc05_w3kusd
full coverage
70_30_cc05_put15_w3kusd
full coverage
70_30_cc10_put15_w3kusd
full coverage
70_30_cc15_put15_w3kusd
full coverage
70_30_cc05_target3k_w3kusd
target $3,000/cycle
70_30_cc05_target3k_put15_w3kusd
target $3,000/cycle
70_30_cc15_target3k_put15_w3kusd
target $3,000/cycle
50_50_cc05_put15_w3kusd
full coverage
Median %——————————4.194.194.194.192.731.710.040.050.054.19
Mean %——————————4.644.644.644.643.172.140.220.220.194.64
p25 / p75 %——————————3.52 / 5.663.52 / 5.663.52 / 5.663.52 / 5.662.15 / 3.891.17 / 2.540.02 / 0.080.03 / 0.090.03 / 0.093.52 / 5.66
Min / Max %——————————1.62 / 9.241.62 / 9.241.62 / 9.241.62 / 9.240.75 / 7.720.33 / 6.660.01 / 1.810.02 / 1.730.02 / 1.451.62 / 9.24
Min / Max premium USD——————————5,797 / 477,4186,331 / 975,9004,304 / 1,168,9734,624 / 2,085,1952,119 / 1,720,843913 / 1,313,9013,004 / 4,7113,004 / 4,711891 / 4,2732,774 / 3,742,118
Net premium after put cost USD———————————+13,763,582—+27,127,135+13,503,275+3,927,869—-10,961,266-10,236,580+45,311,091
# CC cycles000000000086868686868686868686
CC premium per cycle (full period — does not respond to the period selector).
stockonly
no CC cycles
stockonly_w3kusd
no CC cycles
0_100
no CC cycles
85_15
no CC cycles
85_15_trim
no CC cycles
70_30
no CC cycles
70_30_trim
no CC cycles
85_15_trim_w3kusd
no CC cycles
70_30_trim_w3kusd
no CC cycles
85_15_w3kusd
no CC cycles
premium histogram for 85_15_cc05_w3kusd
premium histogram for 85_15_cc05_put15_w3kusd
premium histogram for 70_30_cc05_w3kusd
premium histogram for 70_30_cc05_put15_w3kusd
premium histogram for 70_30_cc10_put15_w3kusd
premium histogram for 70_30_cc15_put15_w3kusd
premium histogram for 70_30_cc05_target3k_w3kusd
premium histogram for 70_30_cc05_target3k_put15_w3kusd
premium histogram for 70_30_cc15_target3k_put15_w3kusd
premium histogram for 50_50_cc05_put15_w3kusd

Equity curves

Log-scale USD NAV. Green shading marks days TSLA closed above its 10-day MA — the X3 sleeve is leveraged during these regimes.

·Resolution:
Equity curves — log-scale USD NAV (post-tax)$1,000,000$10,000,000$100,000,0002020202120222023202420252026NAV USD (log)0_10050_50_cc05_put15_w3kusd70_30_cc05_put15_w3kusd70_30_cc10_put15_w3kusd70_30_cc15_put15_w3kusd70_3070_30_cc05_target3k_w3kusd70_30_trim70_30_trim_w3kusd70_30_cc05_target3k_put15_w3kusd70_30_cc05_w3kusd85_1570_30_cc15_target3k_put15_w3kusd85_15_cc05_put15_w3kusd85_15_w3kusd85_15_trim85_15_trim_w3kusdstockonly85_15_cc05_w3kusdstockonly_w3kusd

Regime behavior (SPEC §6.10)

Aggregates each strategy's annualized return across all windows of the same regime tag (see config/periods.yaml). Each (strategy × period) is its own fresh-start backtest from $500k. Cell format: median CAGR % / mean CAGR % across the n windows in that tag.

Regime tagstockonlystockonly_w3kusd0_10085_1585_15_trim70_3070_30_trim85_15_trim_w3kusd70_30_trim_w3kusd85_15_w3kusd85_15_cc05_w3kusd85_15_cc05_put15_w3kusd70_30_cc05_w3kusd70_30_cc05_put15_w3kusd70_30_cc10_put15_w3kusd70_30_cc15_put15_w3kusd70_30_cc05_target3k_w3kusd70_30_cc05_target3k_put15_w3kusd70_30_cc15_target3k_put15_w3kusd50_50_cc05_put15_w3kusd
Full real-options window (n=1)+48.3% / +48.3%+44.9% / +44.9%+154.8% / +154.8%+69.7% / +69.7%+63.3% / +63.3%+90.0% / +90.0%+78.7% / +78.7%+60.2% / +60.2%+75.8% / +75.8%+66.2% / +66.2%+42.2% / +42.2%+63.0% / +63.0%+68.7% / +68.7%+88.6% / +88.6%+88.3% / +88.3%+87.9% / +87.9%+82.3% / +82.3%+76.0% / +76.0%+74.0% / +74.0%+116.5% / +116.5%
Flat (sideways with structure) (n=2)-0.3% / -0.3%-8.7% / -8.7%+76.4% / +76.4%+13.8% / +13.8%+10.3% / +10.3%+27.2% / +27.2%+21.3% / +21.3%+3.0% / +3.0%+14.5% / +14.5%+6.0% / +6.0%+7.0% / +7.0%+31.1% / +31.1%+23.1% / +23.1%+45.1% / +45.1%+42.0% / +42.0%+37.0% / +37.0%+18.0% / +18.0%+27.2% / +27.2%+24.7% / +24.7%+58.5% / +58.5%
Round-trip up (peak in middle, ends near start) (n=2)+1.5% / +1.5%-3.9% / -3.9%+71.0% / +71.0%+10.9% / +10.9%+10.3% / +10.3%+20.2% / +20.2%+19.5% / +19.5%+4.9% / +4.9%+14.0% / +14.0%+5.3% / +5.3%+9.8% / +9.8%+23.1% / +23.1%+21.5% / +21.5%+33.2% / +33.2%+29.4% / +29.4%+25.9% / +25.9%+13.2% / +13.2%+16.3% / +16.3%+15.3% / +15.3%+44.1% / +44.1%
Round-trip down / V-shape (trough in middle, ends near start) (n=3)+1.4% / +2.9%-7.0% / -5.4%+15.4% / +131.8%+13.1% / +17.0%+11.6% / +15.6%+16.0% / +32.7%+13.6% / +30.3%+3.9% / +7.1%+6.1% / +21.7%+5.1% / +8.4%+15.1% / +13.2%+29.3% / +35.7%+20.9% / +28.4%+29.7% / +51.6%+29.6% / +50.3%+23.2% / +47.0%+10.4% / +23.5%+12.9% / +38.9%+14.2% / +40.9%+26.5% / +72.1%
Up strong (>+60% sustained rally) (n=2)+113.8% / +113.8%+109.3% / +109.3%+325.9% / +325.9%+151.1% / +151.1%+145.2% / +145.2%+188.3% / +188.3%+177.5% / +177.5%+141.1% / +141.1%+173.9% / +173.9%+146.9% / +146.9%+92.3% / +92.3%+109.1% / +109.1%+138.8% / +138.8%+155.5% / +155.5%+158.1% / +158.1%+160.8% / +160.8%+178.6% / +178.6%+155.0% / +155.0%+149.9% / +149.9%+214.8% / +214.8%
Down strong (<-35% sustained drop) (n=2)-50.0% / -50.0%-55.0% / -55.0%+43.0% / +43.0%-40.1% / -40.1%-40.7% / -40.7%-28.8% / -28.8%-30.0% / -30.0%-45.8% / -45.8%-35.2% / -35.2%-45.2% / -45.2%-40.6% / -40.6%-15.7% / -15.7%-28.8% / -28.8%-7.0% / -7.0%-10.6% / -10.6%-14.3% / -14.3%-33.3% / -33.3%-17.5% / -17.5%-17.9% / -17.9%+5.4% / +5.4%
Ends higher (+20% to +60%) (n=5)+32.7% / +35.3%+21.8% / +26.4%+20.6% / +139.0%+35.7% / +45.4%+32.1% / +43.9%+34.9% / +56.7%+35.2% / +54.5%+25.4% / +35.1%+28.7% / +45.6%+25.2% / +36.3%+23.2% / +23.4%+35.8% / +43.6%+23.8% / +38.0%+30.8% / +57.7%+33.7% / +59.1%+32.3% / +59.7%+22.6% / +41.8%+24.2% / +51.2%+27.7% / +49.8%+31.8% / +77.9%
Ends lower (-10% to -35%) (n=2)-18.8% / -18.8%-27.1% / -27.1%+35.8% / +35.8%-9.9% / -9.9%-11.7% / -11.7%-1.1% / -1.1%-4.2% / -4.2%-19.7% / -19.7%-12.0% / -12.0%-18.5% / -18.5%-6.9% / -6.9%+10.4% / +10.4%+0.8% / +0.8%+15.7% / +15.7%+13.1% / +13.1%+7.9% / +7.9%-7.6% / -7.6%+2.6% / +2.6%+4.9% / +4.9%+20.4% / +20.4%
Multi-oscillation (≥4 sign flips, ends near start) (n=1)+5.3% / +5.3%-3.7% / -3.7%-2.1% / -2.1%+6.5% / +6.5%+4.2% / +4.2%+6.9% / +6.9%+3.1% / +3.1%-4.8% / -4.8%-5.9% / -5.9%-2.8% / -2.8%+3.8% / +3.8%+19.7% / +19.7%+3.7% / +3.7%+16.4% / +16.4%+17.3% / +17.3%+14.9% / +14.9%-2.8% / -2.8%+5.3% / +5.3%+8.5% / +8.5%+9.0% / +9.0%
Really bad x3 periods (x3 peak-DD ≥85%, asymmetric to stock) (n=4)-14.8% / -4.8%-21.8% / -13.5%-8.8% / +1.5%-8.4% / -1.7%-11.6% / -4.0%-2.5% / +0.7%-7.9% / -3.2%-21.0% / -13.0%-17.9% / -12.4%-18.7% / -11.1%-4.4% / -7.4%+8.5% / +6.9%-5.1% / -5.0%+6.9% / +7.3%+6.0% / +5.7%+2.7% / +3.8%-13.0% / -10.6%-0.8% / -1.9%-0.8% / -1.8%+0.6% / +4.0%