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Timing
Note: close_open and open_open price trade events at exec_spot while NAV is marked at the day's close, so day 1 of any backtest carries a small lookahead bias (~1% on the initial cash-to-stock rebalance) that compounds proportionally through the run — even for stockonly with no X3 or CC, since the very first rebalance buys shares at exec_spot. Subsequent days are unaffected (same shares, close-to-close moves). Treat the spread between variants as the robustness signal, not absolute numbers under non-close_close modes.
Robustness

OTM ladder — which CC strike pays best?

Compares 5/10/15/20% OTM CC variants in a 70/30 stock/X3 sleeve. All CC strategies share schedule, sleeve weights and pricing assumptions — the only variable is strike distance. The 85/15 no-CC sleeve is included as a no-cap-on-upside baseline so each strike's opportunity cost is visible. Use the conditional-return table to see how each strike behaves across different TSLA-return buckets, and the regime-behavior table for cross-window aggregation.

Generated 2026-05-06 10:46 · Period: 2019-01-02 → 2026-04-29 · Runs: 85_15, 85_15_trim, 70_30_trim, 70_30_cc05, 70_30_cc10, 70_30_cc15, 70_30_cc20

Reading the absolute numbers: SPEC §9 caveats apply. Costs are modeled (CC premium haircut, X3 trade cost) but real-world frictions like MA10 whipsaw timing, vol-spike spread blowouts, and FX spread are not. Treat differences between runs as much more reliable than absolute returns.

Strategy settings

SPEC §5 fields per strategy. Monthly anchor and X3 timing are controlled by the global toggle in the filter bar — every strategy runs under all 6 timing variants.

Setting85_1585_15_trim70_30_trim70_30_cc0570_30_cc1070_30_cc1570_30_cc20
Start date2019-01-012019-01-012019-01-012019-01-012019-01-012019-01-012019-01-01
End date2026-04-302026-04-302026-04-302026-04-302026-04-302026-04-302026-04-30
Initial capital (USD)500000.0500000.0500000.0500000.0500000.0500000.0500000.0
Monthly anchor (toggle)lastlastlastlastlastlastlast
X3 timing (toggle)close_closeclose_closeclose_closeclose_closeclose_closeclose_closeclose_close
CC enabledfalsefalsefalsetruetruetruetrue
CC OTM %13.013.013.05.010.015.020.0
Withdrawal/cycle USD0.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
Stock sleeve %85.085.070.070.070.070.070.0
X3 sleeve %15.015.030.030.030.030.030.0
X3 drag %0.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
X3 MA window10101010101010
HV window30303030303030
IV multiplier1.121.121.121.121.121.121.12
X3 trade cost %0.250.250.250.250.250.250.25
CC haircut %3.03.03.03.03.03.03.0
Put enabled———————
Put OTM %———————
Put funding———————
Put max cost % of premium———————

Summary metrics

NAV is engine state (does not include withdrawn cash). Total wealth = Final NAV + cumulative withdrawn. Cells with two numbers show total above, median per cycle below. The dispersion subline (toggle in filter bar) shows min · median · max of each metric across the timing-variant family.

Metric85_1585_15_trim70_30_trim70_30_cc0570_30_cc1070_30_cc1570_30_cc20
Initial NAV (USD)500,000
fan (6): min 500,000 · med 504,319 · max 505,581
500,000
fan (6): min 500,000 · med 504,319 · max 505,581
500,000
fan (6): min 500,000 · med 503,557 · max 504,596
500,000
fan (6): min 500,000 · med 503,557 · max 504,596
500,000
fan (6): min 500,000 · med 503,557 · max 504,596
500,000
fan (6): min 500,000 · med 503,557 · max 504,596
500,000
fan (6): min 500,000 · med 503,557 · max 504,596
Final NAV (USD, post-tax)19,906,704
fan (6): min 17,852,649 · med 19,904,805 · max 23,524,738
15,488,303
fan (6): min 13,514,233 · med 15,363,182 · max 15,640,872
26,216,065
fan (6): min 19,939,392 · med 25,893,657 · max 26,514,977
24,370,745
fan (6): min 17,863,050 · med 21,841,988 · max 33,105,163
24,213,093
fan (6): min 15,862,403 · med 20,737,366 · max 30,203,003
25,475,145
fan (6): min 14,726,378 · med 21,539,218 · max 28,748,599
28,180,142
fan (6): min 14,662,702 · med 23,601,295 · max 32,156,320
Increased NAV (USD, post-tax)
+19,406,704avg: +221,369/mo
fan (6): min 17,347,067 · med 19,402,645 · max 23,020,419
+14,988,303avg: +170,969/mo
fan (6): min 13,008,652 · med 14,863,182 · max 15,136,553
+25,716,065avg: +293,339/mo
fan (6): min 19,434,795 · med 25,393,657 · max 26,011,420
+23,870,745avg: +272,290/mo
fan (6): min 17,359,493 · med 21,339,690 · max 32,601,606
+23,713,093avg: +270,492/mo
fan (6): min 15,357,807 · med 20,235,068 · max 29,699,446
+24,975,145avg: +284,888/mo
fan (6): min 14,221,781 · med 21,037,440 · max 28,245,042
+27,680,142avg: +315,743/mo
fan (6): min 14,158,106 · med 23,099,516 · max 31,652,763
Withdrawn cash (USD)0
fan (6): min 0 · med 0 · max 0
0
fan (6): min 0 · med 0 · max 0
0
fan (6): min 0 · med 0 · max 0
0
fan (6): min 0 · med 0 · max 0
0
fan (6): min 0 · med 0 · max 0
0
fan (6): min 0 · med 0 · max 0
0
fan (6): min 0 · med 0 · max 0
Total wealth (NAV + withdrawn, USD post-tax)
19,906,704+3881.3% of initial
fan (6): min 17,852,649 · med 19,904,805 · max 23,524,738
15,488,303+2997.7% of initial
fan (6): min 13,514,233 · med 15,363,182 · max 15,640,872
26,216,065+5143.2% of initial
fan (6): min 19,939,392 · med 25,893,657 · max 26,514,977
24,370,745+4774.1% of initial
fan (6): min 17,863,050 · med 21,841,988 · max 33,105,163
24,213,093+4742.6% of initial
fan (6): min 15,862,403 · med 20,737,366 · max 30,203,003
25,475,145+4995.0% of initial
fan (6): min 14,726,378 · med 21,539,218 · max 28,748,599
28,180,142+5536.0% of initial
fan (6): min 14,662,702 · med 23,601,295 · max 32,156,320
CAGR USD66.21%
fan (6): min 63.5% · med 66.1% · max 69.8%
60.62%
fan (6): min 57.4% · med 60.4% · max 60.6%
72.62%
fan (6): min 66.1% · med 72.3% · max 72.7%
70.79%
fan (6): min 63.5% · med 68.0% · max 77.9%
70.66%
fan (6): min 60.8% · med 66.9% · max 75.7%
71.87%
fan (6): min 59.3% · med 67.9% · max 74.6%
74.26%
fan (6): min 59.2% · med 70.0% · max 77.3%
Max drawdown
-75.1%18,148,828 → 4,525,4332021-11-04 → 2023-01-03
fan (6): min -75.1% · med -73.9% · max -73.1%
-75.5%15,608,775 → 3,826,7632021-11-04 → 2023-01-03
fan (6): min -75.5% · med -75.2% · max -74.4%
-77.2%23,929,490 → 5,447,4862021-11-04 → 2023-01-03
fan (6): min -77.3% · med -76.8% · max -75.2%
-68.4%14,035,808 → 4,434,7772021-11-04 → 2022-12-27
fan (6): min -70.9% · med -67.3% · max -63.6%
-71.5%15,299,160 → 4,361,0862021-11-04 → 2022-12-27
fan (6): min -73.1% · med -70.6% · max -66.8%
-73.2%17,489,130 → 4,692,0232021-11-04 → 2022-12-27
fan (6): min -74.3% · med -72.5% · max -68.3%
-73.6%18,942,025 → 4,994,4972021-11-04 → 2022-12-27
fan (6): min -74.6% · med -73.1% · max -68.7%
Sharpe USD1.02
fan (6): min 1.00 · med 1.02 · max 1.04
0.98
fan (6): min 0.95 · med 0.97 · max 0.98
1.05
fan (6): min 1.00 · med 1.04 · max 1.05
1.11
fan (6): min 1.03 · med 1.08 · max 1.15
1.09
fan (6): min 0.99 · med 1.05 · max 1.12
1.08
fan (6): min 0.96 · med 1.05 · max 1.10
1.09
fan (6): min 0.96 · med 1.05 · max 1.11
Premium collected (USD)0
fan (6): min 0 · med 0 · max 0
0
fan (6): min 0 · med 0 · max 0
0
fan (6): min 0 · med 0 · max 0
28,872,734median: 301,414/cycle(n=86)
fan (6): min 21,782,414 · med 27,132,783 · max 38,070,106
19,980,270median: 202,592/cycle(n=86)
fan (6): min 13,803,619 · med 18,434,754 · max 25,551,611
14,526,790median: 138,630/cycle(n=86)
fan (6): min 9,316,204 · med 13,025,547 · max 17,926,694
10,700,406median: 101,497/cycle(n=86)
fan (6): min 6,683,909 · med 9,416,277 · max 14,024,311
Upside lost to assignments (USD)
Σ over assigned cycles of (spot at expiry − strike) × shares assigned: gains the CC capped away.
———-31,208,462-22,207,248-17,009,715-11,615,519
Net (premium − upside lost) USD
Total CC premium collected minus upside lost to assignments. Positive = the CC overlay paid for itself; negative = assignments cost more than the premium earned.
———-2,335,728-2,226,978-2,482,925-915,113
X3 P&L on assigned cycles (USD)
X3 sleeve P&L during the cycles where the CC was assigned — the rallies that capped the call usually lifted X3 too.
———+36,488,554+35,506,863+32,746,759+33,892,161
Net + X3 offset on assigned (USD)
Net (premium − upside lost) plus the X3 sleeve's P&L during assigned cycles — credits X3 for cushioning the same rallies that capped the call.
———+34,152,827+33,279,885+30,263,834+32,977,049
Median premium % of NAV/cycle—
fan (6): min 0.00% · med 0.00% · max 0.00%
—
fan (6): min 0.00% · med 0.00% · max 0.00%
—
fan (6): min 0.00% · med 0.00% · max 0.00%
2.93%
fan (6): min 2.83% · med 3.06% · max 3.31%
1.91%
fan (6): min 1.84% · med 1.99% · max 2.22%
1.20%
fan (6): min 1.14% · med 1.25% · max 1.45%
0.78%
fan (6): min 0.68% · med 0.81% · max 0.90%
# CC cycles0
fan (6): min 0 · med 0 · max 0
0
fan (6): min 0 · med 0 · max 0
0
fan (6): min 0 · med 0 · max 0
86
fan (6): min 85 · med 86 · max 86
86
fan (6): min 85 · med 86 · max 86
86
fan (6): min 85 · med 86 · max 86
86
fan (6): min 85 · med 86 · max 86
# CC assigned0 (0.0%)
fan (6): min 0 · med 0 · max 0
0 (0.0%)
fan (6): min 0 · med 0 · max 0
0 (0.0%)
fan (6): min 0 · med 0 · max 0
38 (44.2%)
fan (6): min 33 · med 34 · max 40
28 (32.6%)
fan (6): min 23 · med 28 · max 29
21 (24.4%)
fan (6): min 20 · med 22 · max 23
19 (22.1%)
fan (6): min 17 · med 20 · max 21
# X3 entries / exits144 / 144144 / 144144 / 144144 / 144144 / 144144 / 144144 / 144
Avg X3 cycle win / loss+55.4% / -15.5%+55.4% / -15.5%+55.4% / -15.5%+55.4% / -15.5%+55.4% / -15.5%+55.4% / -15.5%+55.4% / -15.5%
Schablonskatt (USD)557,378448,765762,960592,855604,614664,166732,781

Robustness across timing variants

Dispersion across 6 timing variants (anchor × X3-timing) per strategy. Tight spread (✓ robust) means the headline numbers don't depend on the timing knob choice. Wide spread (⚠ luck-sensitive) means the backtest's headline is partly luck — judge that strategy by the median of the family, not the highlighted variant.
StrategyMetricMinMedianMaxSpread (max − min)
85_15CAGR %+63.5%+66.1%+69.8%+6.3% ⚠ luck-sensitive
Max DD %-75.1%-73.9%-73.1%+2.0% ✓ robust
Increased NAV (USD)+17,347,067+19,402,645+23,020,419+5,673,351
Total premium (USD)+0+0+0+0
Sharpe1.001.021.040.05 ✓ robust
Net put P&L (USD)+0+0+0+0
85_15_trimCAGR %+57.4%+60.4%+60.6%+3.2% ⚠ luck-sensitive
Max DD %-75.5%-75.2%-74.4%+1.1% ✓ robust
Increased NAV (USD)+13,008,652+14,863,182+15,136,553+2,127,901
Total premium (USD)+0+0+0+0
Sharpe0.950.970.980.03 ✓ robust
Net put P&L (USD)+0+0+0+0
70_30_trimCAGR %+66.1%+72.3%+72.7%+6.7% ⚠ luck-sensitive
Max DD %-77.3%-76.8%-75.2%+2.1% ✓ robust
Increased NAV (USD)+19,434,795+25,393,657+26,011,420+6,576,625
Total premium (USD)+0+0+0+0
Sharpe1.001.041.050.05 ✓ robust
Net put P&L (USD)+0+0+0+0
70_30_cc05CAGR %+63.5%+68.0%+77.9%+14.3% ⚠ luck-sensitive
Max DD %-70.9%-67.3%-63.6%+7.3% ⚠ luck-sensitive
Increased NAV (USD)+17,359,493+21,339,690+32,601,606+15,242,113
Total premium (USD)+21,782,414+27,132,783+38,070,106+16,287,692
Sharpe1.031.081.150.12
Net put P&L (USD)+0+0+0+0
70_30_cc10CAGR %+60.8%+66.9%+75.7%+14.8% ⚠ luck-sensitive
Max DD %-73.1%-70.6%-66.8%+6.3% ⚠ luck-sensitive
Increased NAV (USD)+15,357,807+20,235,068+29,699,446+14,341,640
Total premium (USD)+13,803,619+18,434,754+25,551,611+11,747,992
Sharpe0.991.051.120.13
Net put P&L (USD)+0+0+0+0
70_30_cc15CAGR %+59.3%+67.9%+74.6%+15.3% ⚠ luck-sensitive
Max DD %-74.3%-72.5%-68.3%+6.1% ⚠ luck-sensitive
Increased NAV (USD)+14,221,781+21,037,440+28,245,042+14,023,261
Total premium (USD)+9,316,204+13,025,547+17,926,694+8,610,491
Sharpe0.961.051.100.13
Net put P&L (USD)+0+0+0+0
70_30_cc20CAGR %+59.2%+70.0%+77.3%+18.1% ⚠ luck-sensitive
Max DD %-74.6%-73.1%-68.7%+5.8% ⚠ luck-sensitive
Increased NAV (USD)+14,158,106+23,099,516+31,652,763+17,494,658
Total premium (USD)+6,683,909+9,416,277+14,024,311+7,340,401
Sharpe0.961.051.110.15
Net put P&L (USD)+0+0+0+0

Strategy response to TSLA cycle moves (per-cycle returns by TSLA-bucket, SPEC §6.3 + §6.4)

Per CC cycle, bucketed by TSLA's window return. X3 sleeve columns isolate X3 behavior (identical across strategies sharing schedule + sleeve weight). Per-strategy columns show median % / mean % of total cycle return for cycles in that bucket.

TSLA bucketSample countAvg TSLA return %X3 sleeve return % (med / mean)85_1585_15_trim70_30_trim70_30_cc0570_30_cc1070_30_cc1570_30_cc20
-37.5% to -32.5%1-32.6%-22.5% / -22.5%
fan (4): min -22.5% · med -20.9% · max -5.2%
-31.1% / -31.1%
fan (4): min -34.5% · med -31.8% · max -30.7%
-31.8% / -31.8%
fan (4): min -36.0% · med -33.0% · max -31.8%
-30.7% / -30.7%
fan (4): min -34.6% · med -31.3% · max -30.2%
-26.8% / -26.8%
fan (4): min -29.3% · med -27.4% · max -24.0%
-27.7% / -27.7%
fan (4): min -30.2% · med -28.3% · max -24.8%
-28.4% / -28.4%
fan (4): min -30.8% · med -28.8% · max -25.3%
-28.9% / -28.9%
fan (4): min -31.0% · med -29.3% · max -25.5%
-32.5% to -27.5%1-27.6%-18.9% / -18.9%
fan (6): min -20.0% · med -19.3% · max +3.8%
-26.3% / -26.3%
fan (6): min -29.0% · med -28.5% · max -23.4%
-26.7% / -26.7%
fan (6): min -29.6% · med -29.0% · max -23.4%
-25.8% / -25.8%
fan (6): min -28.7% · med -27.6% · max -18.6%
-22.8% / -22.8%
fan (6): min -25.5% · med -24.8% · max -16.1%
-23.7% / -23.7%
fan (6): min -25.9% · med -25.4% · max -17.2%
-24.1% / -24.1%
fan (6): min -26.4% · med -26.0% · max -17.7%
-24.4% / -24.4%
fan (6): min -26.7% · med -26.3% · max -18.0%
-27.5% to -22.5%2-24.6%+1.9% / +1.9%
fan (6): min -25.0% · med -10.8% · max +1.9%
-20.6% / -20.6%
fan (6): min -26.1% · med -23.4% · max -20.6%
-20.9% / -20.9%
fan (6): min -26.4% · med -23.9% · max -20.9%
-17.1% / -17.1%
fan (6): min -26.0% · med -22.0% · max -17.1%
-13.8% / -13.8%
fan (6): min -22.8% · med -18.9% · max -13.8%
-15.0% / -15.0%
fan (6): min -23.6% · med -19.5% · max -15.0%
-15.4% / -15.4%
fan (6): min -24.0% · med -20.1% · max -15.4%
-15.9% / -15.9%
fan (6): min -24.5% · med -20.4% · max -15.9%
-22.5% to -17.5%4-20.7%-19.6% / -19.9%
fan (6): min -19.6% · med -8.4% · max +8.3%
-20.7% / -20.6%
fan (6): min -20.7% · med -18.7% · max -15.7%
-20.9% / -20.8%
fan (6): min -20.9% · med -18.8% · max -17.5%
-20.7% / -20.8%
fan (6): min -20.7% · med -16.7% · max -14.8%
-17.8% / -18.0%
fan (6): min -17.8% · med -13.4% · max -9.1%
-18.7% / -19.0%
fan (6): min -18.7% · med -14.1% · max -10.0%
-19.3% / -19.6%
fan (6): min -19.3% · med -14.6% · max -10.6%
-19.6% / -19.9%
fan (6): min -19.6% · med -15.0% · max -10.9%
-17.5% to -12.5%6-14.7%-15.8% / -17.7%
fan (6): min -21.6% · med -14.7% · max -7.7%
-15.3% / -15.2%
fan (6): min -16.0% · med -15.6% · max -15.1%
-15.3% / -15.1%
fan (6): min -16.1% · med -15.8% · max -15.3%
-15.6% / -15.5%
fan (6): min -16.7% · med -15.4% · max -14.8%
-12.5% / -12.6%
fan (6): min -14.0% · med -12.5% · max -11.2%
-13.5% / -13.5%
fan (6): min -15.0% · med -13.4% · max -11.9%
-14.4% / -14.3%
fan (6): min -15.6% · med -14.2% · max -12.7%
-14.9% / -14.7%
fan (6): min -16.2% · med -14.6% · max -13.2%
-12.5% to -7.5%9-9.4%-9.9% / -9.1%
fan (6): min -16.5% · med -11.6% · max -9.9%
-9.6% / -9.4%
fan (6): min -12.2% · med -10.6% · max -9.6%
-9.7% / -9.7%
fan (6): min -12.3% · med -10.3% · max -9.5%
-9.5% / -9.9%
fan (6): min -12.6% · med -10.8% · max -9.5%
-7.4% / -6.4%
fan (6): min -10.2% · med -8.4% · max -6.5%
-8.1% / -7.3%
fan (6): min -11.2% · med -9.5% · max -7.3%
-8.3% / -7.9%
fan (6): min -11.7% · med -10.1% · max -7.7%
-8.6% / -8.4%
fan (6): min -12.1% · med -10.6% · max -8.6%
-7.5% to -2.5%13-4.6%-17.9% / -20.5%
fan (6): min -23.8% · med -16.7% · max -12.3%
-6.7% / -6.9%
fan (6): min -7.9% · med -6.7% · max -5.8%
-6.4% / -6.5%
fan (6): min -7.3% · med -6.4% · max -5.4%
-8.4% / -8.5%
fan (6): min -9.2% · med -7.9% · max -6.6%
-6.2% / -6.5%
fan (6): min -8.8% · med -5.7% · max -4.5%
-7.1% / -7.3%
fan (6): min -9.2% · med -6.6% · max -5.5%
-7.9% / -8.0%
fan (6): min -9.8% · med -7.3% · max -6.1%
-8.1% / -8.4%
fan (6): min -10.1% · med -7.7% · max -6.6%
-2.5% to +2.5%8+0.2%-5.9% / -7.0%
fan (6): min -14.1% · med -6.3% · max -2.7%
-0.5% / -0.9%
fan (6): min -2.1% · med -0.5% · max +0.1%
-0.4% / -0.6%
fan (6): min -1.5% · med -0.3% · max +0.5%
-1.2% / -1.5%
fan (6): min -3.1% · med -1.1% · max -0.3%
+1.1% / +0.7%
fan (6): min -1.0% · med +0.8% · max +1.9%
+0.3% / -0.1%
fan (6): min -2.0% · med -0.0% · max +1.1%
-0.3% / -0.7%
fan (6): min -2.7% · med -0.6% · max +0.6%
-0.8% / -1.2%
fan (6): min -3.2% · med -0.9% · max +0.2%
+2.5% to +7.5%13+4.9%-3.7% / -0.5%
fan (6): min -3.9% · med -2.0% · max +4.6%
+3.5% / +4.0%
fan (6): min +2.9% · med +3.8% · max +4.9%
+4.0% / +4.2%
fan (6): min +3.0% · med +4.1% · max +4.8%
+2.8% / +3.4%
fan (6): min +1.5% · med +3.2% · max +5.0%
+4.9% / +5.7%
fan (6): min +4.6% · med +5.1% · max +7.2%
+4.4% / +5.1%
fan (6): min +3.5% · med +4.5% · max +6.7%
+3.3% / +4.4%
fan (6): min +2.7% · med +3.9% · max +6.0%
+2.8% / +4.0%
fan (6): min +2.1% · med +3.7% · max +5.6%
+7.5% to +12.5%7+10.4%+25.6% / +30.2%
fan (6): min -2.5% · med +8.9% · max +25.6%
+13.3% / +13.4%
fan (6): min +6.3% · med +9.0% · max +13.3%
+12.4% / +12.5%
fan (6): min +6.8% · med +9.5% · max +12.4%
+14.6% / +14.8%
fan (6): min +5.8% · med +8.9% · max +14.6%
+14.2% / +15.8%
fan (6): min +6.3% · med +8.5% · max +14.2%
+16.4% / +17.9%
fan (6): min +6.6% · med +9.7% · max +16.4%
+16.6% / +17.7%
fan (6): min +5.7% · med +9.2% · max +16.6%
+16.1% / +17.3%
fan (6): min +5.3% · med +8.8% · max +16.1%
+12.5% to +17.5%4+14.6%+7.1% / +9.8%
fan (6): min +7.1% · med +23.5% · max +30.6%
+13.1% / +13.9%
fan (6): min +13.1% · med +15.7% · max +17.5%
+13.2% / +13.9%
fan (6): min +13.2% · med +15.0% · max +16.7%
+12.3% / +13.2%
fan (6): min +12.3% · med +16.5% · max +18.5%
+10.3% / +11.2%
fan (6): min +10.3% · med +14.0% · max +15.2%
+12.3% / +13.1%
fan (6): min +12.3% · med +15.7% · max +17.8%
+14.1% / +15.3%
fan (6): min +14.1% · med +17.3% · max +19.4%
+13.4% / +14.9%
fan (6): min +13.4% · med +16.6% · max +19.0%
+17.5% to +22.5%6+20.5%+43.0% / +40.4%
fan (5): min -27.5% · med +34.6% · max +43.0%
+23.0% / +23.5%
fan (5): min +11.5% · med +21.9% · max +23.0%
+22.1% / +22.6%
fan (5): min +11.8% · med +21.4% · max +22.1%
+24.8% / +24.9%
fan (5): min +5.2% · med +22.4% · max +24.8%
+19.5% / +20.3%
fan (5): min +6.7% · med +18.6% · max +19.7%
+21.5% / +22.2%
fan (5): min +8.9% · med +19.7% · max +21.5%
+24.6% / +24.9%
fan (5): min +11.3% · med +22.0% · max +24.6%
+26.6% / +27.4%
fan (5): min +11.8% · med +25.2% · max +26.6%
+22.5% to +27.5%2+24.9%+27.9% / +27.9%
fan (6): min +26.4% · med +40.0% · max +74.3%
+25.4% / +25.4%
fan (6): min +23.4% · med +27.5% · max +32.9%
+25.3% / +25.3%
fan (6): min +23.3% · med +26.9% · max +30.7%
+25.6% / +25.6%
fan (6): min +23.6% · med +28.6% · max +37.0%
+15.0% / +15.0%
fan (6): min +15.0% · med +18.9% · max +28.8%
+17.2% / +17.2%
fan (6): min +17.2% · med +21.3% · max +30.8%
+19.9% / +19.9%
fan (6): min +19.9% · med +24.1% · max +33.6%
+23.1% / +23.1%
fan (6): min +22.3% · med +27.3% · max +36.9%
+27.5% to +32.5%3+30.2%+87.7% / +64.7%
fan (6): min +21.1% · med +66.0% · max +87.7%
+40.3% / +35.4%
fan (6): min +29.3% · med +36.1% · max +40.3%
+35.8% / +33.0%
fan (6): min +29.9% · med +34.1% · max +37.1%
+42.3% / +36.2%
fan (6): min +28.9% · med +36.9% · max +46.0%
+33.2% / +25.9%
fan (6): min +13.4% · med +27.3% · max +33.3%
+35.4% / +28.1%
fan (6): min +15.7% · med +29.4% · max +35.5%
+38.0% / +31.0%
fan (6): min +17.9% · med +32.0% · max +38.2%
+41.0% / +34.1%
fan (6): min +21.3% · med +34.5% · max +41.0%
+32.5% to +37.5%2+35.5%+79.7% / +79.7%
fan (6): min +28.8% · med +60.4% · max +79.7%
+42.1% / +42.1%
fan (6): min +33.0% · med +39.2% · max +42.1%
+42.1% / +42.1%
fan (6): min +33.3% · med +38.8% · max +42.1%
+48.6% / +48.6%
fan (6): min +32.8% · med +42.1% · max +48.6%
+31.5% / +31.5%
fan (6): min +16.1% · med +25.3% · max +31.5%
+33.8% / +33.8%
fan (6): min +18.1% · med +27.7% · max +33.8%
+36.2% / +36.2%
fan (6): min +20.4% · med +30.1% · max +36.2%
+38.8% / +38.8%
fan (6): min +23.9% · med +33.1% · max +38.8%
+37.5% to +42.5%1+41.0%+94.5% / +94.5%
fan (6): min +94.5% · med +120.8% · max +126.3%
+49.0% / +49.0%
fan (6): min +49.0% · med +51.1% · max +53.4%
+49.0% / +49.0%
fan (6): min +47.8% · med +49.1% · max +50.8%
+57.0% / +57.0%
fan (6): min +56.1% · med +57.9% · max +63.3%
+41.0% / +41.0%
fan (6): min +41.0% · med +43.1% · max +45.1%
+42.9% / +42.9%
fan (6): min +42.9% · med +45.7% · max +47.7%
+44.9% / +44.9%
fan (6): min +44.9% · med +48.2% · max +50.2%
+47.1% / +47.1%
fan (6): min +47.1% · med +51.5% · max +52.7%
+42.5% to +47.5%2+44.1%+188.8% / +188.8%
fan (6): min +94.5% · med +143.5% · max +261.5%
+65.8% / +65.8%
fan (6): min +52.0% · med +59.7% · max +76.9%
+58.6% / +58.6%
fan (6): min +52.0% · med +55.5% · max +63.5%
+74.9% / +74.9%
fan (6): min +59.5% · med +67.1% · max +85.6%
+64.9% / +64.9%
fan (6): min +41.9% · med +52.6% · max +84.3%
+66.8% / +66.8%
fan (6): min +43.3% · med +54.5% · max +87.1%
+69.1% / +69.1%
fan (6): min +45.8% · med +56.8% · max +90.0%
+72.8% / +72.8%
fan (6): min +48.1% · med +59.3% · max +93.1%
+47.5% to +52.5%3+50.4%+152.7% / +151.6%
fan (4): min +87.9% · med +140.2% · max +180.8%
+64.6% / +65.6%
fan (4): min +54.8% · med +63.9% · max +68.0%
+63.8% / +62.1%
fan (4): min +53.4% · med +63.2% · max +64.3%
+78.8% / +74.8%
fan (4): min +58.2% · med +76.2% · max +79.3%
+56.8% / +55.2%
fan (4): min +35.4% · med +51.9% · max +60.2%
+59.0% / +56.9%
fan (4): min +37.5% · med +54.0% · max +62.4%
+60.9% / +59.0%
fan (4): min +39.5% · med +56.4% · max +65.5%
+63.8% / +61.8%
fan (4): min +42.7% · med +59.1% · max +68.8%
+52.5% to +57.5%1+54.7%+150.5% / +150.5%
fan (3): min +82.4% · med +150.5% · max +150.5%
+69.1% / +69.1%
fan (3): min +60.2% · med +68.0% · max +69.1%
+69.1% / +69.1%
fan (3): min +59.1% · med +68.0% · max +69.1%
+83.4% / +83.4%
fan (3): min +62.2% · med +82.5% · max +83.4%
+55.5% / +55.5%
fan (3): min +33.0% · med +55.2% · max +55.5%
+57.2% / +57.2%
fan (3): min +35.2% · med +57.2% · max +57.5%
+59.4% / +59.4%
fan (3): min +37.2% · med +59.0% · max +59.4%
+62.5% / +62.5%
fan (3): min +40.4% · med +62.0% · max +62.5%
Overall88+1703.2%+37714.0%+3881.3%+2997.7%+5143.2%+4774.1%+4742.6%+4995.0%+5536.0%

Premium yield per cycle (SPEC §6.8)

For each CC cycle: premium received ÷ value of the stock being covered (n_contracts × 100 × spot_at_sale) × 100. Strike-comparable yield, scale-invariant — depends only on strike distance, DTE and IV, not on portfolio size or year. With a monthly schedule this is a per-month yield; multiply by 12 for a rough annualized read (ignores compounding and assignment losses). The bottom row shows realized cashflow extremes in USD (in target_cashflow mode integer-contract rounding can push a single cycle past the cited target on high-IV days). Histograms below the table show the per-cycle USD distribution for each strategy side-by-side.

Stat85_15
full coverage
85_15_trim
full coverage
70_30_trim
full coverage
70_30_cc05
full coverage
70_30_cc10
full coverage
70_30_cc15
full coverage
70_30_cc20
full coverage
Median %———4.192.731.711.11
Mean %———4.643.172.141.45
p25 / p75 %———3.52 / 5.662.15 / 3.891.17 / 2.540.71 / 1.70
Min / Max %———1.62 / 9.240.75 / 7.720.33 / 6.660.16 / 4.92
Min / Max premium USD———4,695 / 1,337,4742,169 / 1,133,030942 / 957,118457 / 866,249
Net premium after put cost USD———————
# CC cycles00086868686
CC premium per cycle (full period — does not respond to the period selector).
85_15
no CC cycles
85_15_trim
no CC cycles
70_30_trim
no CC cycles
premium histogram for 70_30_cc05
premium histogram for 70_30_cc10
premium histogram for 70_30_cc15
premium histogram for 70_30_cc20

Equity curves

Log-scale USD NAV. Green shading marks days TSLA closed above its 10-day MA — the X3 sleeve is leveraged during these regimes.

·Resolution:
Equity curves — log-scale USD NAV (post-tax)$1,000,000$10,000,0002020202120222023202420252026NAV USD (log)70_30_cc2070_30_trim70_30_cc1570_30_cc0570_30_cc1085_1585_15_trim

Regime behavior (SPEC §6.10)

Aggregates each strategy's annualized return across all windows of the same regime tag (see config/periods.yaml). Each (strategy × period) is its own fresh-start backtest from $500k. Cell format: median CAGR % / mean CAGR % across the n windows in that tag.

Regime tag85_1585_15_trim70_30_trim70_30_cc0570_30_cc1070_30_cc1570_30_cc20
Full real-options window (n=1)+69.7% / +69.7%+63.3% / +63.3%+78.7% / +78.7%+72.4% / +72.4%+72.9% / +72.9%+75.5% / +75.5%+78.7% / +78.7%
Flat (sideways with structure) (n=2)+13.8% / +13.8%+10.3% / +10.3%+21.3% / +21.3%+30.1% / +30.1%+27.9% / +27.9%+26.4% / +26.4%+27.5% / +27.5%
Round-trip up (peak in middle, ends near start) (n=2)+10.9% / +10.9%+10.3% / +10.3%+19.5% / +19.5%+26.6% / +26.6%+24.1% / +24.1%+22.8% / +22.8%+21.5% / +21.5%
Round-trip down / V-shape (trough in middle, ends near start) (n=3)+13.1% / +17.0%+11.6% / +15.6%+13.6% / +30.3%+29.9% / +38.1%+28.5% / +36.9%+24.0% / +34.8%+23.1% / +34.1%
Up strong (>+60% sustained rally) (n=2)+151.1% / +151.1%+145.2% / +145.2%+177.5% / +177.5%+143.2% / +143.2%+146.9% / +146.9%+153.1% / +153.1%+159.2% / +159.2%
Down strong (<-35% sustained drop) (n=2)-40.1% / -40.1%-40.7% / -40.7%-30.0% / -30.0%-23.7% / -23.7%-26.5% / -26.5%-27.8% / -27.8%-28.5% / -28.5%
Ends higher (+20% to +60%) (n=5)+35.7% / +45.4%+32.1% / +43.9%+35.2% / +54.5%+31.4% / +46.8%+34.0% / +47.8%+32.8% / +49.8%+34.7% / +54.3%
Ends lower (-10% to -35%) (n=2)-9.9% / -9.9%-11.7% / -11.7%-4.2% / -4.2%+9.1% / +9.1%+7.2% / +7.2%+4.6% / +4.6%+3.0% / +3.0%
Multi-oscillation (≥4 sign flips, ends near start) (n=1)+6.5% / +6.5%+4.2% / +4.2%+3.1% / +3.1%+12.4% / +12.4%+13.4% / +13.4%+11.7% / +11.7%+13.1% / +13.1%
Really bad x3 periods (x3 peak-DD ≥85%, asymmetric to stock) (n=4)-8.4% / -1.7%-11.6% / -4.0%-7.9% / -3.2%+3.9% / +4.2%+2.6% / +3.5%+0.3% / +2.4%-0.0% / +3.6%