OTM ladder — which CC strike pays best?
Compares 5/10/15/20% OTM CC variants in a 70/30 stock/X3 sleeve. All CC strategies share schedule, sleeve weights and pricing assumptions — the only variable is strike distance. `70_30` (no CC) is included as the no-cap-on-upside baseline so each strike's opportunity cost is visible. `stockonly` anchors the bare-TSLA comparison. Use the conditional-return table to see how each strike behaves across different TSLA-return buckets, and the regime-behavior table for cross-window aggregation.
Reading the absolute numbers: SPEC §9 caveats apply. Costs are modeled (CC premium haircut, X3 trade cost) but real-world frictions like MA10 whipsaw timing, vol-spike spread blowouts, and FX spread are not. Treat differences between runs as much more reliable than absolute returns.
Strategy settings
SPEC §5 fields per strategy. Monthly anchor and X3 timing are controlled by the global toggle in the filter bar — every strategy runs under all 6 timing variants.
| Setting | stockonly | 70_30 | 70_30_cc05 | 70_30_cc10 | 70_30_cc15 | 70_30_cc20 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Start date | 2019-01-01 | 2019-01-01 | 2019-01-01 | 2019-01-01 | 2019-01-01 | 2019-01-01 |
| End date | 2026-04-30 | 2026-04-30 | 2026-04-30 | 2026-04-30 | 2026-04-30 | 2026-04-30 |
| Initial capital (USD) | 500000.0 | 500000.0 | 500000.0 | 500000.0 | 500000.0 | 500000.0 |
| Monthly anchor (toggle) | last | last | last | last | last | last |
| X3 timing (toggle) | close_close | close_close | close_close | close_close | close_close | close_close |
| CC enabled | false | false | true | true | true | true |
| CC OTM % | 10.0 | 13.0 | 5.0 | 10.0 | 15.0 | 20.0 |
| Withdrawal/cycle USD | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Stock sleeve % | 100.0 | 70.0 | 70.0 | 70.0 | 70.0 | 70.0 |
| X3 sleeve % | 0.0 | 30.0 | 30.0 | 30.0 | 30.0 | 30.0 |
| X3 drag % | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| X3 mgmt fee % | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| X3 funding mult | 2.25 | 2.25 | 2.25 | 2.25 | 2.25 | 2.25 |
| X3 MA window | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 |
| HV window | 30 | 30 | 30 | 30 | 30 | 30 |
| IV multiplier | 1.12 | 1.12 | 1.12 | 1.12 | 1.12 | 1.12 |
| X3 trade cost % | 0.25 | 0.25 | 0.25 | 0.25 | 0.25 | 0.25 |
| CC haircut % | 3.0 | 3.0 | 3.0 | 3.0 | 3.0 | 3.0 |
| Put enabled | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Put OTM % | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Put funding | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Put max cost % of premium | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Short put enabled | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Short put moneyness % | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Short put target premium | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Short put collateral mode | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Summary metrics
NAV is engine state (does not include withdrawn cash). Total wealth = Final NAV + cumulative withdrawn. Cells with two numbers show total above, median per cycle below. The dispersion subline (toggle in filter bar) shows min · median · max of each metric across the timing-variant family.
| Metric | stockonly | 70_30 | 70_30_cc05 | 70_30_cc10 | 70_30_cc15 | 70_30_cc20 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Initial NAV (USD) | 500,000 fan (6): min 500,000 · med 505,081 · max 506,566 | 500,000 fan (6): min 500,000 · med 503,557 · max 504,596 | 499,630 fan (6): min 499,630 · med 503,395 · max 504,553 | 499,783 fan (6): min 499,783 · med 503,475 · max 504,583 | 499,881 fan (6): min 499,881 · med 503,506 · max 504,588 | 499,938 fan (6): min 499,938 · med 503,533 · max 504,595 |
| Final NAV (USD, post-tax) | 8,971,315 fan (6): min 8,971,315 · med 9,062,568 · max 9,089,280 | 58,300,118 fan (6): min 31,098,751 · med 58,390,197 · max 70,893,002 | 37,214,042 fan (6): min 18,303,384 · med 32,056,367 · max 46,985,525 | 37,392,953 fan (6): min 14,731,491 · med 30,956,647 · max 45,260,991 | 38,057,414 fan (6): min 14,240,155 · med 31,388,837 · max 43,046,949 | 42,466,605 fan (6): min 15,910,391 · med 36,028,726 · max 45,655,158 |
| Increased NAV (USD, post-tax) | +8,471,315avg: +96,579/mo fan (6): min 8,471,315 · med 8,557,487 · max 8,582,714 | +57,800,118avg: +658,959/mo fan (6): min 30,594,155 · med 57,888,418 · max 70,389,446 | +36,714,412avg: +418,568/mo fan (6): min 17,798,831 · med 31,554,752 · max 46,482,019 | +36,893,170avg: +420,606/mo fan (6): min 14,226,908 · med 30,454,957 · max 44,757,449 | +37,557,533avg: +428,180/mo fan (6): min 13,735,567 · med 30,887,103 · max 42,543,408 | +41,966,666avg: +478,447/mo fan (6): min 15,405,795 · med 35,526,970 · max 45,151,604 |
| Withdrawn cash (USD) | 0 fan (6): min 0 · med 0 · max 0 | 0 fan (6): min 0 · med 0 · max 0 | 0 fan (6): min 0 · med 0 · max 0 | 0 fan (6): min 0 · med 0 · max 0 | 0 fan (6): min 0 · med 0 · max 0 | 0 fan (6): min 0 · med 0 · max 0 |
| Total wealth (NAV + withdrawn, USD post-tax) | 8,971,315+1694.3% of initial fan (6): min 8,971,315 · med 9,062,568 · max 9,089,280 | 58,300,118+11560.0% of initial fan (6): min 31,098,751 · med 58,390,197 · max 70,893,002 | 37,214,042+7348.3% of initial fan (6): min 18,303,384 · med 32,056,367 · max 46,985,525 | 37,392,953+7381.8% of initial fan (6): min 14,731,491 · med 30,956,647 · max 45,260,991 | 38,057,414+7513.3% of initial fan (6): min 14,240,155 · med 31,388,837 · max 43,046,949 | 42,466,605+8394.4% of initial fan (6): min 15,910,391 · med 36,028,726 · max 45,655,158 |
| CAGR USD | 49.01% fan (6): min 49.0% · med 49.0% · max 49.0% | 92.37% fan (6): min 76.3% · med 92.3% · max 97.4% | 80.86% fan (6): min 63.9% · med 77.0% · max 86.5% | 80.99% fan (6): min 59.2% · med 76.3% · max 85.6% | 81.44% fan (6): min 58.5% · med 76.6% · max 84.3% | 84.18% fan (6): min 60.9% · med 80.0% · max 85.8% |
| Max drawdown | -73.6%9,914,718 → 2,614,2942021-11-04 → 2023-01-03 fan (6): min -73.6% · med -73.6% · max -73.6% | -76.9%40,120,387 → 9,268,4102021-11-04 → 2023-01-03 fan (6): min -77.2% · med -76.6% · max -74.8% | -68.7%19,209,429 → 6,008,4452021-11-04 → 2022-12-27 fan (6): min -74.7% · med -68.7% · max -66.2% | -72.2%20,999,364 → 5,840,6832021-11-04 → 2022-12-27 fan (6): min -76.4% · med -71.7% · max -69.7% | -73.5%23,143,760 → 6,122,7232021-11-04 → 2022-12-27 fan (6): min -77.3% · med -73.0% · max -71.9% | -73.8%25,379,047 → 6,656,0542021-11-04 → 2023-01-03 fan (6): min -77.4% · med -73.4% · max -72.6% |
| Sharpe USD | 0.88 fan (6): min 0.88 · med 0.88 · max 0.88 | 1.18 fan (6): min 1.06 · med 1.18 · max 1.21 | 1.16 fan (6): min 1.00 · med 1.12 · max 1.19 | 1.15 fan (6): min 0.96 · med 1.10 · max 1.17 | 1.14 fan (6): min 0.95 · med 1.10 · max 1.16 | 1.15 fan (6): min 0.96 · med 1.12 · max 1.16 |
| Premium collected (USD) | 0 fan (6): min 0 · med 0 · max 0 | 0 fan (6): min 0 · med 0 · max 0 | 37,272,426median: 342,668/cycle(n=88) fan (6): min 19,550,572 · med 32,043,595 · max 46,369,078 | 25,413,698median: 228,025/cycle(n=88) fan (6): min 11,934,307 · med 21,872,549 · max 32,398,429 | 17,971,792median: 156,092/cycle(n=88) fan (6): min 8,409,952 · med 15,106,067 · max 22,313,191 | 13,430,860median: 108,920/cycle(n=88) fan (6): min 6,474,574 · med 11,794,501 · max 16,551,347 |
| Upside lost to assignments (USD) Σ over assigned cycles of (spot at expiry − strike) × shares assigned: gains the CC capped away. | — | — | -39,709,267 | -27,634,314 | -20,617,121 | -14,521,465 |
| Net (premium − upside lost) USD Total CC premium collected minus upside lost to assignments. Positive = the CC overlay paid for itself; negative = assignments cost more than the premium earned. | — | — | -2,436,841 | -2,220,616 | -2,645,329 | -1,090,605 |
| X3 P&L on assigned cycles (USD) X3 sleeve P&L during the cycles where the CC was assigned — the rallies that capped the call usually lifted X3 too. | — | — | +46,792,452 | +43,905,288 | +39,527,121 | +40,533,308 |
| Net + X3 offset on assigned (USD) Net (premium − upside lost) plus the X3 sleeve's P&L during assigned cycles — credits X3 for cushioning the same rallies that capped the call. | — | — | +44,355,611 | +41,684,672 | +36,881,791 | +39,442,703 |
| Median premium % of NAV/cycle | — fan (6): min 0.00% · med 0.00% · max 0.00% | — fan (6): min 0.00% · med 0.00% · max 0.00% | 2.85% fan (6): min 2.68% · med 2.84% · max 3.18% | 1.77% fan (6): min 1.76% · med 1.89% · max 2.00% | 1.14% fan (6): min 1.10% · med 1.18% · max 1.29% | 0.70% fan (6): min 0.67% · med 0.73% · max 0.84% |
| # CC cycles | 0 fan (6): min 0 · med 0 · max 0 | 0 fan (6): min 0 · med 0 · max 0 | 88 fan (6): min 88 · med 88 · max 88 | 88 fan (6): min 88 · med 88 · max 88 | 88 fan (6): min 88 · med 88 · max 88 | 88 fan (6): min 88 · med 88 · max 88 |
| # CC assigned | 0 (0.0%) fan (6): min 0 · med 0 · max 0 | 0 (0.0%) fan (6): min 0 · med 0 · max 0 | 34 (38.6%) fan (6): min 32 · med 34 · max 36 | 26 (29.5%) fan (6): min 23 · med 26 · max 26 | 20 (22.7%) fan (6): min 20 · med 20 · max 22 | 18 (20.5%) fan (6): min 15 · med 18 · max 20 |
| # X3 entries / exits | 0 / 0 | 135 / 132 | 135 / 132 | 135 / 132 | 135 / 132 | 135 / 132 |
| Avg X3 cycle win / loss | +0.0% / +0.0% | +50.4% / -16.5% | +50.4% / -16.5% | +50.4% / -16.5% | +50.4% / -16.5% | +50.4% / -16.5% |
| Schablonskatt (USD) | 258,029 | 1,397,894 | 782,655 | 807,683 | 855,023 | 956,127 |
Robustness across timing variants
Strategy response to TSLA cycle moves (per-cycle returns by TSLA-bucket, SPEC §6.3 + §6.4)
Per CC cycle, bucketed by TSLA's window return. X3 sleeve columns isolate X3 behavior (identical across strategies sharing schedule + sleeve weight). Per-strategy columns show median % / mean % of total cycle return for cycles in that bucket.
| TSLA bucket | Sample count | Avg TSLA return % | X3 sleeve return % (med / mean) | stockonly | 70_30 | 70_30_cc05 | 70_30_cc10 | 70_30_cc15 | 70_30_cc20 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| -37.5% to -32.5% | 1 | -32.6% | -22.6% / -22.6% fan (4): min -22.6% · med -21.0% · max -5.4% | -32.6% / -32.6% fan (4): min -37.2% · med -34.7% · max -32.6% | -29.6% / -29.6% fan (4): min -31.8% · med -30.2% · max -26.2% | -27.4% / -27.4% fan (4): min -29.3% · med -27.7% · max -24.1% | -28.2% / -28.2% fan (4): min -30.2% · med -28.5% · max -24.9% | -28.7% / -28.7% fan (4): min -30.8% · med -29.1% · max -25.4% | -28.9% / -28.9% fan (4): min -31.2% · med -29.4% · max -25.7% |
| -32.5% to -27.5% | 1 | -27.6% | -18.9% / -18.9% fan (6): min -20.1% · med -19.3% · max +3.8% | -27.6% / -27.6% fan (6): min -30.8% · med -30.0% · max -27.6% | -25.0% / -25.0% fan (6): min -27.3% · med -26.9% · max -18.6% | -22.9% / -22.9% fan (6): min -25.5% · med -24.8% · max -16.4% | -23.8% / -23.8% fan (6): min -26.1% · med -25.5% · max -17.4% | -24.2% / -24.2% fan (6): min -26.5% · med -26.1% · max -17.7% | -24.5% / -24.5% fan (6): min -26.7% · med -26.3% · max -18.0% |
| -27.5% to -22.5% | 2 | -24.6% | +1.9% / +1.9% fan (6): min -25.0% · med -11.0% · max +1.9% | -24.6% / -24.6% fan (6): min -27.4% · med -25.9% · max -24.3% | -16.7% / -16.7% fan (6): min -25.7% · med -21.3% · max -16.7% | -14.2% / -14.2% fan (6): min -22.8% · med -19.2% · max -14.2% | -15.0% / -15.0% fan (6): min -23.6% · med -19.8% · max -15.0% | -15.4% / -15.4% fan (6): min -24.1% · med -20.2% · max -15.4% | -15.6% / -15.6% fan (6): min -24.5% · med -20.6% · max -15.6% |
| -22.5% to -17.5% | 4 | -20.7% | -19.7% / -20.0% fan (6): min -24.0% · med -13.6% · max +8.1% | -20.9% / -20.7% fan (6): min -20.9% · med -19.8% · max -18.0% | -20.3% / -20.5% fan (6): min -20.3% · med -17.8% · max -11.5% | -17.8% / -18.1% fan (6): min -17.8% · med -15.4% · max -9.3% | -18.8% / -19.1% fan (6): min -18.8% · med -16.2% · max -10.1% | -19.3% / -19.6% fan (6): min -19.3% · med -16.8% · max -10.7% | -19.6% / -19.9% fan (6): min -19.6% · med -17.1% · max -11.0% |
| -17.5% to -12.5% | 6 | -14.7% | -21.8% / -16.8% fan (6): min -21.8% · med -15.7% · max -7.9% | -14.4% / -14.7% fan (6): min -17.2% · med -15.5% · max -14.4% | -17.9% / -15.4% fan (6): min -17.9% · med -15.7% · max -13.2% | -15.0% / -12.4% fan (6): min -15.0% · med -13.1% · max -10.3% | -15.9% / -13.4% fan (6): min -15.9% · med -13.9% · max -11.2% | -16.5% / -14.1% fan (6): min -16.5% · med -14.4% · max -11.9% | -17.0% / -14.5% fan (6): min -17.0% · med -14.7% · max -12.3% |
| -12.5% to -7.5% | 9 | -9.4% | -9.9% / -9.2% fan (6): min -23.9% · med -12.3% · max -9.2% | -9.4% / -9.4% fan (6): min -11.7% · med -9.9% · max -9.3% | -9.6% / -9.3% fan (6): min -15.9% · med -11.0% · max -9.6% | -7.4% / -6.5% fan (6): min -13.4% · med -8.5% · max -5.7% | -8.1% / -7.5% fan (6): min -14.3% · med -9.3% · max -7.0% | -8.5% / -8.1% fan (6): min -14.9% · med -9.8% · max -7.7% | -8.6% / -8.5% fan (6): min -15.3% · med -10.1% · max -7.8% |
| -7.5% to -2.5% | 13 | -4.6% | -17.9% / -19.5% fan (6): min -17.9% · med -14.9% · max -10.6% | -4.3% / -4.6% fan (6): min -5.8% · med -5.1% · max -4.3% | -9.1% / -9.0% fan (6): min -10.1% · med -8.0% · max -6.6% | -6.6% / -6.1% fan (6): min -7.1% · med -4.9% · max -3.3% | -7.6% / -7.0% fan (6): min -7.8% · med -5.8% · max -4.2% | -7.9% / -7.6% fan (6): min -8.2% · med -6.4% · max -4.9% | -8.2% / -8.1% fan (6): min -8.6% · med -6.9% · max -5.5% |
| -2.5% to +2.5% | 8 | +0.2% | +2.5% / +11.3% fan (6): min -7.7% · med -1.0% · max +2.5% | -0.1% / +0.2% fan (6): min -0.4% · med -0.0% · max +0.2% | +0.6% / +3.5% fan (6): min -1.8% · med -0.0% · max +1.3% | +3.9% / +6.6% fan (6): min +1.0% · med +2.4% · max +4.0% | +2.7% / +5.5% fan (6): min +0.2% · med +1.4% · max +3.0% | +2.0% / +4.8% fan (6): min -0.5% · med +0.8% · max +2.3% | +1.6% / +4.4% fan (6): min -0.9% · med +0.5% · max +2.0% |
| +2.5% to +7.5% | 13 | +5.0% | -2.3% / +2.0% fan (6): min -5.0% · med -2.0% · max +6.1% | +5.4% / +5.0% fan (6): min +4.3% · med +5.1% · max +5.5% | +3.2% / +4.1% fan (6): min +1.8% · med +3.1% · max +5.3% | +5.6% / +6.5% fan (6): min +4.6% · med +5.6% · max +8.3% | +5.1% / +5.8% fan (6): min +3.8% · med +5.0% · max +7.0% | +4.4% / +5.2% fan (6): min +3.0% · med +4.4% · max +6.5% | +3.9% / +4.8% fan (6): min +2.5% · med +4.0% · max +6.0% |
| +7.5% to +12.5% | 7 | +10.4% | +24.9% / +31.4% fan (6): min -4.3% · med +7.9% · max +24.9% | +10.7% / +10.4% fan (6): min +8.2% · med +9.3% · max +10.9% | +15.3% / +16.7% fan (6): min +4.1% · med +8.1% · max +15.3% | +14.2% / +16.5% fan (6): min +5.7% · med +9.1% · max +14.2% | +16.7% / +18.5% fan (6): min +5.6% · med +9.5% · max +16.7% | +16.3% / +18.1% fan (6): min +5.2% · med +8.9% · max +16.3% | +15.9% / +17.6% fan (6): min +4.7% · med +8.5% · max +15.9% |
| +12.5% to +17.5% | 4 | +14.6% | +15.0% / +8.8% fan (6): min +15.0% · med +23.1% · max +30.6% | +14.8% / +14.6% fan (6): min +13.3% · med +14.4% · max +15.3% | +14.4% / +12.8% fan (6): min +14.4% · med +17.2% · max +19.8% | +12.7% / +11.1% fan (6): min +12.7% · med +14.1% · max +15.7% | +14.5% / +13.6% fan (6): min +14.5% · med +16.8% · max +18.5% | +16.2% / +15.0% fan (6): min +16.2% · med +18.3% · max +20.8% | +15.7% / +14.5% fan (6): min +15.7% · med +18.0% · max +20.4% |
| +17.5% to +22.5% | 6 | +20.5% | +42.4% / +38.1% fan (5): min -27.5% · med +33.8% · max +45.5% | +20.8% / +20.5% fan (5): min +18.4% · med +19.5% · max +20.8% | +26.3% / +25.8% fan (5): min +4.6% · med +24.2% · max +26.7% | +19.2% / +19.6% fan (5): min +6.8% · med +19.2% · max +23.4% | +22.3% / +22.2% fan (5): min +11.5% · med +21.7% · max +25.4% | +25.0% / +24.7% fan (5): min +11.1% · med +23.8% · max +27.6% | +26.7% / +26.9% fan (5): min +11.1% · med +26.1% · max +28.5% |
| +22.5% to +27.5% | 2 | +24.9% | +27.4% / +27.4% fan (6): min +27.4% · med +39.6% · max +73.1% | +24.9% / +24.9% fan (6): min +23.3% · med +25.5% · max +27.3% | +25.7% / +25.7% fan (6): min +24.4% · med +29.6% · max +39.8% | +15.2% / +15.2% fan (6): min +15.2% · med +19.1% · max +28.5% | +17.5% / +17.5% fan (6): min +17.5% · med +21.2% · max +30.8% | +20.3% / +20.3% fan (6): min +20.3% · med +24.1% · max +33.4% | +23.2% / +23.2% fan (6): min +23.2% · med +27.8% · max +36.6% |
| +27.5% to +32.5% | 3 | +30.2% | +86.8% / +64.0% fan (6): min +21.1% · med +64.9% · max +86.8% | +30.4% / +30.2% fan (6): min +29.4% · med +30.8% · max +31.5% | +48.4% / +40.3% fan (6): min +27.8% · med +41.8% · max +48.4% | +32.9% / +25.7% fan (6): min +13.5% · med +27.4% · max +32.9% | +35.1% / +28.2% fan (6): min +15.8% · med +29.8% · max +36.4% | +37.7% / +30.8% fan (6): min +18.3% · med +32.5% · max +39.0% | +40.7% / +34.2% fan (6): min +21.2% · med +35.4% · max +41.9% |
| +32.5% to +37.5% | 2 | +35.5% | +79.6% / +79.6% fan (6): min +28.1% · med +55.2% · max +79.6% | +35.5% / +35.5% fan (6): min +34.9% · med +35.5% · max +37.1% | +48.7% / +48.7% fan (6): min +32.0% · med +41.8% · max +48.7% | +31.5% / +31.5% fan (6): min +15.9% · med +24.3% · max +31.5% | +33.7% / +33.7% fan (6): min +17.9% · med +26.5% · max +33.7% | +36.2% / +36.2% fan (6): min +21.1% · med +29.1% · max +36.2% | +39.4% / +39.4% fan (6): min +23.7% · med +32.2% · max +39.4% |
| +37.5% to +42.5% | 1 | +41.0% | +94.4% / +94.4% fan (6): min +94.4% · med +119.9% · max +125.6% | +41.0% / +41.0% fan (6): min +38.2% · med +40.5% · max +41.0% | +57.0% / +57.0% fan (6): min +57.0% · med +63.1% · max +66.0% | +42.0% / +42.0% fan (6): min +41.9% · med +43.4% · max +45.3% | +43.4% / +43.4% fan (6): min +43.4% · med +45.8% · max +47.5% | +45.6% / +45.6% fan (6): min +45.6% · med +48.3% · max +50.7% | +47.1% / +47.1% fan (6): min +47.1% · med +51.5% · max +54.1% |
| +42.5% to +47.5% | 2 | +44.1% | +155.4% / +155.4% fan (6): min +91.5% · med +131.1% · max +271.3% | +44.1% / +44.1% fan (6): min +44.1% · med +44.7% · max +46.1% | +77.5% / +77.5% fan (6): min +58.2% · med +71.5% · max +112.4% | +54.9% / +54.9% fan (6): min +36.7% · med +49.3% · max +87.6% | +57.9% / +57.9% fan (6): min +38.3% · med +51.4% · max +90.1% | +60.4% / +60.4% fan (6): min +40.9% · med +54.0% · max +92.9% | +62.8% / +62.8% fan (6): min +43.7% · med +58.1% · max +96.1% |
| +47.5% to +52.5% | 3 | +50.4% | +146.8% / +144.2% fan (4): min +67.4% · med +127.3% · max +188.4% | +51.0% / +50.4% fan (4): min +49.0% · med +50.3% · max +51.9% | +79.8% / +78.5% fan (4): min +54.5% · med +74.3% · max +90.2% | +52.5% / +53.0% fan (4): min +29.5% · med +47.2% · max +62.7% | +54.5% / +54.7% fan (4): min +31.9% · med +48.8% · max +65.4% | +56.7% / +57.1% fan (4): min +33.6% · med +51.5% · max +67.7% | +59.9% / +60.0% fan (4): min +37.2% · med +54.4% · max +71.1% |
| +52.5% to +57.5% | 1 | +54.7% | +150.5% / +150.5% fan (3): min +80.9% · med +146.8% · max +150.5% | +54.7% / +54.7% fan (3): min +53.4% · med +54.7% · max +56.3% | +83.4% / +83.4% fan (3): min +63.7% · med +82.5% · max +83.4% | +55.8% / +55.8% fan (3): min +33.2% · med +53.0% · max +55.8% | +57.7% / +57.7% fan (3): min +34.8% · med +54.9% · max +57.7% | +59.4% / +59.4% fan (3): min +37.7% · med +57.1% · max +59.4% | +62.5% / +62.5% fan (3): min +40.0% · med +59.5% · max +62.5% |
| Overall | 88 | +1745.9% | +137555.1% | +1694.3% | +11560.0% | +7348.3% | +7381.8% | +7513.3% | +8394.4% |
Premium yield per cycle (SPEC §6.8)
For each CC cycle: premium received ÷ value of the stock being covered (n_contracts × 100 × spot_at_sale) × 100. Strike-comparable yield, scale-invariant — depends only on strike distance, DTE and IV, not on portfolio size or year. With a monthly schedule this is a per-month yield; multiply by 12 for a rough annualized read (ignores compounding and assignment losses). The bottom row shows realized cashflow extremes in USD (in target_cashflow mode integer-contract rounding can push a single cycle past the cited target on high-IV days). Histograms below the table show the per-cycle USD distribution for each strategy side-by-side.
| Stat | stockonly full coverage | 70_30 full coverage | 70_30_cc05 full coverage | 70_30_cc10 full coverage | 70_30_cc15 full coverage | 70_30_cc20 full coverage |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median % | — | — | 4.08 | 2.53 | 1.64 | 1.01 |
| Mean % | — | — | 4.47 | 2.95 | 2.00 | 1.38 |
| p25 / p75 % | — | — | 3.29 / 5.33 | 1.89 / 3.41 | 1.13 / 2.27 | 0.65 / 1.57 |
| Min / Max % | — | — | 1.62 / 9.55 | 0.67 / 7.55 | 0.33 / 6.08 | 0.13 / 4.92 |
| Min / Max premium USD | — | — | 6,402 / 1,779,788 | 2,519 / 1,533,424 | 1,231 / 1,264,562 | 498 / 1,141,951 |
| Net premium after put cost USD | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| # CC cycles | 0 | 0 | 88 | 88 | 88 | 88 |
CC premium per cycle (full period — does not respond to the period selector).
stockonly
no CC cycles
70_30
no CC cycles
Equity curves
Log-scale USD NAV. Green shading marks days TSLA closed above its 10-day MA — the X3 sleeve is leveraged during these regimes.
·Resolution:
Regime behavior (SPEC §6.10)
Aggregates each strategy's annualized return across all windows of the same regime tag (see config/periods.yaml). Each (strategy × period) is its own fresh-start backtest from $500k. Cell format: median CAGR % / mean CAGR % across the n windows in that tag.
| Regime tag | stockonly | 70_30 | 70_30_cc05 | 70_30_cc10 | 70_30_cc15 | 70_30_cc20 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Full real-options window (n=1) | +48.3% / +48.3% | +99.8% / +99.8% | +82.1% / +82.1% | +82.2% / +82.2% | +84.5% / +84.5% | +87.8% / +87.8% |
| Flat (sideways with structure) (n=2) | -0.3% / -0.3% | +29.1% / +29.1% | +30.9% / +30.9% | +29.0% / +29.0% | +27.6% / +27.6% | +29.1% / +29.1% |
| Round-trip up (peak in middle, ends near start) (n=2) | +1.5% / +1.5% | +30.2% / +30.2% | +37.3% / +37.3% | +34.0% / +34.0% | +32.9% / +32.9% | +31.8% / +31.8% |
| Round-trip down / V-shape (trough in middle, ends near start) (n=3) | +1.4% / +2.9% | +29.3% / +44.1% | +43.6% / +48.3% | +42.9% / +47.3% | +37.9% / +45.5% | +36.8% / +44.9% |
| Up strong (>+60% sustained rally) (n=2) | +113.8% / +113.8% | +209.6% / +209.6% | +158.9% / +158.9% | +163.3% / +163.3% | +170.2% / +170.2% | +177.0% / +177.0% |
| Down strong (<-35% sustained drop) (n=2) | -50.0% / -50.0% | -25.8% / -25.8% | -21.2% / -21.2% | -24.2% / -24.2% | -25.4% / -25.4% | -25.8% / -25.8% |
| Ends higher (+20% to +60%) (n=5) | +32.7% / +35.3% | +62.1% / +67.2% | +48.4% / +57.0% | +46.2% / +58.0% | +46.8% / +59.8% | +50.3% / +64.6% |
| Ends lower (-10% to -35%) (n=2) | -18.8% / -18.8% | +0.6% / +0.6% | +10.6% / +10.6% | +8.6% / +8.6% | +6.0% / +6.0% | +4.2% / +4.2% |
| Multi-oscillation (≥4 sign flips, ends near start) (n=1) | +5.3% / +5.3% | +16.5% / +16.5% | +22.1% / +22.1% | +23.1% / +23.1% | +22.0% / +22.0% | +23.3% / +23.3% |
| Low drawdown (smooth rallies, max DD ≤25%) (n=3) | +180.7% / +310.7% | +312.9% / +547.3% | +261.1% / +297.0% | +266.7% / +316.7% | +262.3% / +333.7% | +262.8% / +360.7% |
| Really bad x3 periods (x3 peak-DD ≥85%, asymmetric to stock) (n=4) | -14.8% / -4.8% | -0.2% / +12.6% | +14.6% / +17.9% | +14.2% / +16.3% | +11.1% / +14.8% | +11.1% / +16.1% |