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Timing
Note: close_open and open_open price trade events at exec_spot while NAV is marked at the day's close, so day 1 of any backtest carries a small lookahead bias (~1% on the initial cash-to-stock rebalance) that compounds proportionally through the run — even for stockonly with no X3 or CC, since the very first rebalance buys shares at exec_spot. Subsequent days are unaffected (same shares, close-to-close moves). Treat the spread between variants as the robustness signal, not absolute numbers under non-close_close modes.
Robustness

$3k/cycle cash withdrawal — partial vs full CC coverage

All `_w3kusd` strategies withdraw $3k/cycle as actual cash (not reinvested); the bare `85_15` and `70_30` rows are no-withdrawal baselines included so the opportunity cost of taking $3k/month as salary is visible. Pairs the 85/15 and 70/30 sleeves at three CC settings — no CC, full 5% OTM coverage, and partial coverage sized to ~$3k of premium per cycle ("salary from premium"). Total wealth = Final NAV + cumulative withdrawn. Hypothesis: partial-coverage premium-harvesting funds the withdrawal without giving up the upside that full coverage caps off.

Generated 2026-05-06 10:47 · Period: 2019-01-02 → 2026-04-29 · Runs: 85_15, 85_15_trim, 85_15_w3kusd, 85_15_cc05_w3kusd, 85_15_cc05_target3k_w3kusd, 70_30, 70_30_trim, 70_30_w3kusd, 70_30_cc05_w3kusd, 70_30_cc05_target3k_w3kusd

Reading the absolute numbers: SPEC §9 caveats apply. Costs are modeled (CC premium haircut, X3 trade cost) but real-world frictions like MA10 whipsaw timing, vol-spike spread blowouts, and FX spread are not. Treat differences between runs as much more reliable than absolute returns.

Strategy settings

SPEC §5 fields per strategy. Monthly anchor and X3 timing are controlled by the global toggle in the filter bar — every strategy runs under all 6 timing variants.

Setting85_1585_15_trim85_15_w3kusd85_15_cc05_w3kusd85_15_cc05_target3k_w3kusd70_3070_30_trim70_30_w3kusd70_30_cc05_w3kusd70_30_cc05_target3k_w3kusd
Start date2019-01-012019-01-012019-01-012019-01-012019-01-012019-01-012019-01-012019-01-012019-01-012019-01-01
End date2026-04-302026-04-302026-04-302026-04-302026-04-302026-04-302026-04-302026-04-302026-04-302026-04-30
Initial capital (USD)500000.0500000.0500000.0500000.0500000.0500000.0500000.0500000.0500000.0500000.0
Monthly anchor (toggle)lastlastlastlastlastlastlastlastlastlast
X3 timing (toggle)close_closeclose_closeclose_closeclose_closeclose_closeclose_closeclose_closeclose_closeclose_closeclose_close
CC enabledfalsefalsefalsetruetruefalsefalsefalsetruetrue
CC OTM %13.013.013.05.05.013.013.013.05.05.0
Withdrawal/cycle USD0.00.03000.03000.03000.00.00.03000.03000.03000.0
Stock sleeve %85.085.085.085.085.070.070.070.070.070.0
X3 sleeve %15.015.015.015.015.030.030.030.030.030.0
X3 drag %0.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
X3 MA window10101010101010101010
HV window30303030303030303030
IV multiplier1.121.121.121.121.121.121.121.121.121.12
X3 trade cost %0.250.250.250.250.250.250.250.250.250.25
CC haircut %3.03.03.03.03.03.03.03.03.03.0
Put enabled——————————
Put OTM %——————————
Put funding——————————
Put max cost % of premium——————————

Summary metrics

NAV is engine state (does not include withdrawn cash). Total wealth = Final NAV + cumulative withdrawn. Cells with two numbers show total above, median per cycle below. The dispersion subline (toggle in filter bar) shows min · median · max of each metric across the timing-variant family.

Metric85_1585_15_trim85_15_w3kusd85_15_cc05_w3kusd85_15_cc05_target3k_w3kusd70_3070_30_trim70_30_w3kusd70_30_cc05_w3kusd70_30_cc05_target3k_w3kusd
Initial NAV (USD)500,000
fan (6): min 500,000 · med 504,319 · max 505,581
500,000
fan (6): min 500,000 · med 504,319 · max 505,581
497,000
fan (6): min 497,000 · med 501,289 · max 502,542
500,000
fan (6): min 500,000 · med 504,319 · max 505,581
500,000
fan (6): min 500,000 · med 504,319 · max 505,581
500,000
fan (6): min 500,000 · med 503,557 · max 504,596
500,000
fan (6): min 500,000 · med 503,557 · max 504,596
497,000
fan (6): min 497,000 · med 500,526 · max 501,557
500,000
fan (6): min 500,000 · med 503,557 · max 504,596
500,000
fan (6): min 500,000 · med 503,557 · max 504,596
Final NAV (USD, post-tax)19,906,704
fan (6): min 17,852,649 · med 19,904,805 · max 23,524,738
15,488,303
fan (6): min 13,514,233 · med 15,363,182 · max 15,640,872
17,308,808
fan (6): min 15,434,551 · med 17,320,946 · max 20,436,862
7,573,885
fan (6): min 5,061,830 · med 6,738,932 · max 8,854,308
15,226,701
fan (6): min 13,726,206 · med 15,187,578 · max 18,547,784
39,010,984
fan (6): min 31,159,883 · med 38,914,054 · max 50,689,892
26,216,065
fan (6): min 19,939,392 · med 25,893,657 · max 26,514,977
33,951,505
fan (6): min 26,817,127 · med 33,885,844 · max 44,030,267
21,242,561
fan (6): min 15,432,815 · med 18,968,624 · max 29,137,073
30,059,026
fan (6): min 23,906,824 · med 29,896,541 · max 40,520,800
Increased NAV (USD, post-tax)
+19,406,704avg: +221,369/mo
fan (6): min 17,347,067 · med 19,402,645 · max 23,020,419
+14,988,303avg: +170,969/mo
fan (6): min 13,008,652 · med 14,863,182 · max 15,136,553
+16,811,808avg: +191,770/mo
fan (6): min 14,932,009 · med 16,821,802 · max 19,935,573
+7,073,885avg: +80,691/mo
fan (6): min 4,557,511 · med 6,236,141 · max 8,349,989
+14,726,701avg: +167,985/mo
fan (6): min 13,220,625 · med 14,685,418 · max 18,043,464
+38,510,984avg: +439,289/mo
fan (6): min 30,655,287 · med 38,412,276 · max 50,186,335
+25,716,065avg: +293,339/mo
fan (6): min 19,434,795 · med 25,393,657 · max 26,011,420
+33,454,505avg: +381,610/mo
fan (6): min 26,315,570 · med 33,387,081 · max 43,529,741
+20,742,561avg: +236,607/mo
fan (6): min 14,929,258 · med 18,466,326 · max 28,633,516
+29,559,026avg: +337,175/mo
fan (6): min 23,402,227 · med 29,394,762 · max 40,017,243
Withdrawn cash (USD)0
fan (6): min 0 · med 0 · max 0
0
fan (6): min 0 · med 0 · max 0
264,000median: 3,000/cycle (n=88)
fan (6): min 264,000 · med 264,000 · max 264,000
258,000median: 3,000/cycle (n=86)
fan (6): min 255,000 · med 256,500 · max 258,000
258,000median: 3,000/cycle (n=86)
fan (6): min 255,000 · med 256,500 · max 258,000
0
fan (6): min 0 · med 0 · max 0
0
fan (6): min 0 · med 0 · max 0
264,000median: 3,000/cycle (n=88)
fan (6): min 264,000 · med 264,000 · max 264,000
258,000median: 3,000/cycle (n=86)
fan (6): min 255,000 · med 256,500 · max 258,000
258,000median: 3,000/cycle (n=86)
fan (6): min 255,000 · med 256,500 · max 258,000
Total wealth (NAV + withdrawn, USD post-tax)
19,906,704+3881.3% of initial
fan (6): min 17,852,649 · med 19,904,805 · max 23,524,738
15,488,303+2997.7% of initial
fan (6): min 13,514,233 · med 15,363,182 · max 15,640,872
17,572,808+3435.8% of initial
fan (6): min 15,698,551 · med 17,584,946 · max 20,700,862
7,831,885+1466.4% of initial
fan (6): min 5,319,830 · med 6,995,432 · max 9,109,308
15,484,701+2996.9% of initial
fan (6): min 13,984,206 · med 15,445,578 · max 18,802,784
39,010,984+7702.2% of initial
fan (6): min 31,159,883 · med 38,914,054 · max 50,689,892
26,216,065+5143.2% of initial
fan (6): min 19,939,392 · med 25,893,657 · max 26,514,977
34,215,505+6784.4% of initial
fan (6): min 27,081,127 · med 34,149,844 · max 44,294,267
21,500,561+4200.1% of initial
fan (6): min 15,690,815 · med 19,225,124 · max 29,392,073
30,317,026+5963.4% of initial
fan (6): min 24,164,824 · med 30,154,541 · max 40,775,800
CAGR USD66.21%
fan (6): min 63.5% · med 66.1% · max 69.8%
60.62%
fan (6): min 57.4% · med 60.4% · max 60.6%
63.20%
fan (6): min 60.4% · med 63.1% · max 66.7%
45.56%
fan (6): min 37.6% · med 43.2% · max 48.5%
60.23%
fan (6): min 57.7% · med 60.1% · max 64.4%
82.24%
fan (6): min 76.5% · med 82.1% · max 88.7%
72.62%
fan (6): min 66.1% · med 72.3% · max 72.7%
78.96%
fan (6): min 73.0% · med 78.8% · max 85.2%
67.61%
fan (6): min 60.3% · med 64.8% · max 74.8%
75.85%
fan (6): min 70.2% · med 75.6% · max 83.0%
Max drawdown
-75.1%18,148,828 → 4,525,4332021-11-04 → 2023-01-03
fan (6): min -75.1% · med -73.9% · max -73.1%
-75.5%15,608,775 → 3,826,7632021-11-04 → 2023-01-03
fan (6): min -75.5% · med -75.2% · max -74.4%
-75.2%16,008,747 → 3,972,8762021-11-04 → 2023-01-03
fan (6): min -75.2% · med -74.1% · max -73.3%
-64.8%5,319,855 → 1,874,0932022-01-03 → 2022-12-27
fan (6): min -69.7% · med -64.4% · max -61.4%
-75.1%14,111,060 → 3,515,1472021-11-04 → 2023-01-03
fan (6): min -75.2% · med -74.0% · max -73.2%
-76.6%30,436,283 → 7,126,1342021-11-04 → 2023-01-03
fan (6): min -76.6% · med -74.6% · max -73.2%
-77.2%23,929,490 → 5,447,4862021-11-04 → 2023-01-03
fan (6): min -77.3% · med -76.8% · max -75.2%
-76.7%26,700,608 → 6,231,7422021-11-04 → 2023-01-03
fan (6): min -76.7% · med -74.7% · max -73.3%
-68.6%12,408,424 → 3,901,3122021-11-04 → 2022-12-27
fan (6): min -71.1% · med -67.5% · max -63.7%
-76.6%23,652,985 → 5,533,9292021-11-04 → 2023-01-03
fan (6): min -76.7% · med -74.7% · max -73.2%
Sharpe USD1.02
fan (6): min 1.00 · med 1.02 · max 1.04
0.98
fan (6): min 0.95 · med 0.97 · max 0.98
0.99
fan (6): min 0.97 · med 0.99 · max 1.02
0.92
fan (6): min 0.80 · med 0.88 · max 0.95
0.97
fan (6): min 0.95 · med 0.97 · max 1.00
1.10
fan (6): min 1.07 · med 1.10 · max 1.14
1.05
fan (6): min 1.00 · med 1.04 · max 1.05
1.08
fan (6): min 1.04 · med 1.08 · max 1.12
1.08
fan (6): min 1.00 · med 1.05 · max 1.12
1.06
fan (6): min 1.02 · med 1.06 · max 1.11
Premium collected (USD)0
fan (6): min 0 · med 0 · max 0
0
fan (6): min 0 · med 0 · max 0
0
fan (6): min 0 · med 0 · max 0
12,098,174median: 135,391/cycle(n=86)
fan (6): min 8,683,600 · med 11,752,008 · max 14,316,947
293,850median: 3,309/cycle(n=86)
fan (6): min 291,708 · med 297,634 · max 303,565
0
fan (6): min 0 · med 0 · max 0
0
fan (6): min 0 · med 0 · max 0
0
fan (6): min 0 · med 0 · max 0
25,334,175median: 265,699/cycle(n=86)
fan (6): min 18,998,578 · med 23,695,219 · max 33,689,721
293,850median: 3,309/cycle(n=86)
fan (6): min 291,708 · med 297,634 · max 303,565
Upside lost to assignments (USD)
Σ over assigned cycles of (spot at expiry − strike) × shares assigned: gains the CC capped away.
———-14,147,190-519,386———-27,428,161-519,386
Net (premium − upside lost) USD
Total CC premium collected minus upside lost to assignments. Positive = the CC overlay paid for itself; negative = assignments cost more than the premium earned.
———-2,049,017-225,536———-2,093,985-225,536
X3 P&L on assigned cycles (USD)
X3 sleeve P&L during the cycles where the CC was assigned — the rallies that capped the call usually lifted X3 too.
———+7,080,900+14,402,356———+32,098,154+49,080,870
Net + X3 offset on assigned (USD)
Net (premium − upside lost) plus the X3 sleeve's P&L during assigned cycles — credits X3 for cushioning the same rallies that capped the call.
———+5,031,883+14,176,821———+30,004,168+48,855,335
Median premium % of NAV/cycle—
fan (6): min 0.00% · med 0.00% · max 0.00%
—
fan (6): min 0.00% · med 0.00% · max 0.00%
—
fan (6): min 0.00% · med 0.00% · max 0.00%
3.55%
fan (6): min 3.42% · med 3.71% · max 4.00%
0.04%
fan (6): min 0.04% · med 0.04% · max 0.05%
—
fan (6): min 0.00% · med 0.00% · max 0.00%
—
fan (6): min 0.00% · med 0.00% · max 0.00%
—
fan (6): min 0.00% · med 0.00% · max 0.00%
2.93%
fan (6): min 2.83% · med 3.06% · max 3.30%
0.03%
fan (6): min 0.02% · med 0.03% · max 0.03%
# CC cycles0
fan (6): min 0 · med 0 · max 0
0
fan (6): min 0 · med 0 · max 0
0
fan (6): min 0 · med 0 · max 0
86
fan (6): min 85 · med 86 · max 86
86
fan (6): min 85 · med 86 · max 86
0
fan (6): min 0 · med 0 · max 0
0
fan (6): min 0 · med 0 · max 0
0
fan (6): min 0 · med 0 · max 0
86
fan (6): min 85 · med 86 · max 86
86
fan (6): min 85 · med 86 · max 86
# CC assigned0 (0.0%)
fan (6): min 0 · med 0 · max 0
0 (0.0%)
fan (6): min 0 · med 0 · max 0
0 (0.0%)
fan (6): min 0 · med 0 · max 0
38 (44.2%)
fan (6): min 33 · med 34 · max 40
38 (44.2%)
fan (6): min 33 · med 34 · max 40
0 (0.0%)
fan (6): min 0 · med 0 · max 0
0 (0.0%)
fan (6): min 0 · med 0 · max 0
0 (0.0%)
fan (6): min 0 · med 0 · max 0
38 (44.2%)
fan (6): min 33 · med 34 · max 40
38 (44.2%)
fan (6): min 33 · med 34 · max 40
# X3 entries / exits144 / 144144 / 144144 / 144144 / 144144 / 144144 / 144144 / 144144 / 144144 / 144144 / 144
Avg X3 cycle win / loss+55.4% / -15.5%+55.4% / -15.5%+55.4% / -15.5%+55.4% / -15.5%+55.4% / -15.5%+55.4% / -15.5%+55.4% / -15.5%+55.4% / -15.5%+55.4% / -15.5%+55.4% / -15.5%
Schablonskatt (USD)557,378448,765487,322188,749429,4101,086,087762,960947,657519,132839,541

Robustness across timing variants

Dispersion across 6 timing variants (anchor × X3-timing) per strategy. Tight spread (✓ robust) means the headline numbers don't depend on the timing knob choice. Wide spread (⚠ luck-sensitive) means the backtest's headline is partly luck — judge that strategy by the median of the family, not the highlighted variant.
StrategyMetricMinMedianMaxSpread (max − min)
85_15CAGR %+63.5%+66.1%+69.8%+6.3% ⚠ luck-sensitive
Max DD %-75.1%-73.9%-73.1%+2.0% ✓ robust
Increased NAV (USD)+17,347,067+19,402,645+23,020,419+5,673,351
Total premium (USD)+0+0+0+0
Sharpe1.001.021.040.05 ✓ robust
Net put P&L (USD)+0+0+0+0
85_15_trimCAGR %+57.4%+60.4%+60.6%+3.2% ⚠ luck-sensitive
Max DD %-75.5%-75.2%-74.4%+1.1% ✓ robust
Increased NAV (USD)+13,008,652+14,863,182+15,136,553+2,127,901
Total premium (USD)+0+0+0+0
Sharpe0.950.970.980.03 ✓ robust
Net put P&L (USD)+0+0+0+0
85_15_w3kusdCAGR %+60.4%+63.1%+66.7%+6.3% ⚠ luck-sensitive
Max DD %-75.2%-74.1%-73.3%+1.9% ✓ robust
Increased NAV (USD)+14,932,009+16,821,802+19,935,573+5,003,564
Total premium (USD)+0+0+0+0
Sharpe0.970.991.020.05 ✓ robust
Net put P&L (USD)+0+0+0+0
85_15_cc05_w3kusdCAGR %+37.6%+43.2%+48.5%+10.9% ⚠ luck-sensitive
Max DD %-69.7%-64.4%-61.4%+8.3% ⚠ luck-sensitive
Increased NAV (USD)+4,557,511+6,236,141+8,349,989+3,792,477
Total premium (USD)+8,683,600+11,752,008+14,316,947+5,633,348
Sharpe0.800.880.950.14
Net put P&L (USD)+0+0+0+0
85_15_cc05_target3k_w3kusdCAGR %+57.7%+60.1%+64.4%+6.7% ⚠ luck-sensitive
Max DD %-75.2%-74.0%-73.2%+2.0% ✓ robust
Increased NAV (USD)+13,220,625+14,685,418+18,043,464+4,822,840
Total premium (USD)+291,708+297,634+303,565+11,858
Sharpe0.950.971.000.05 ✓ robust
Net put P&L (USD)+0+0+0+0
70_30CAGR %+76.5%+82.1%+88.7%+12.2% ⚠ luck-sensitive
Max DD %-76.6%-74.6%-73.2%+3.5%
Increased NAV (USD)+30,655,287+38,412,276+50,186,335+19,531,048
Total premium (USD)+0+0+0+0
Sharpe1.071.101.140.08 ✓ robust
Net put P&L (USD)+0+0+0+0
70_30_trimCAGR %+66.1%+72.3%+72.7%+6.7% ⚠ luck-sensitive
Max DD %-77.3%-76.8%-75.2%+2.1% ✓ robust
Increased NAV (USD)+19,434,795+25,393,657+26,011,420+6,576,625
Total premium (USD)+0+0+0+0
Sharpe1.001.041.050.05 ✓ robust
Net put P&L (USD)+0+0+0+0
70_30_w3kusdCAGR %+73.0%+78.8%+85.2%+12.2% ⚠ luck-sensitive
Max DD %-76.7%-74.7%-73.3%+3.5%
Increased NAV (USD)+26,315,570+33,387,081+43,529,741+17,214,170
Total premium (USD)+0+0+0+0
Sharpe1.041.081.120.08 ✓ robust
Net put P&L (USD)+0+0+0+0
70_30_cc05_w3kusdCAGR %+60.3%+64.8%+74.8%+14.5% ⚠ luck-sensitive
Max DD %-71.1%-67.5%-63.7%+7.3% ⚠ luck-sensitive
Increased NAV (USD)+14,929,258+18,466,326+28,633,516+13,704,257
Total premium (USD)+18,998,578+23,695,219+33,689,721+14,691,143
Sharpe1.001.051.120.12
Net put P&L (USD)+0+0+0+0
70_30_cc05_target3k_w3kusdCAGR %+70.2%+75.6%+83.0%+12.8% ⚠ luck-sensitive
Max DD %-76.7%-74.7%-73.2%+3.5%
Increased NAV (USD)+23,402,227+29,394,762+40,017,243+16,615,016
Total premium (USD)+291,708+297,634+303,565+11,858
Sharpe1.021.061.110.08 ✓ robust
Net put P&L (USD)+0+0+0+0

Strategy response to TSLA cycle moves (per-cycle returns by TSLA-bucket, SPEC §6.3 + §6.4)

Per CC cycle, bucketed by TSLA's window return. X3 sleeve columns isolate X3 behavior (identical across strategies sharing schedule + sleeve weight). Per-strategy columns show median % / mean % of total cycle return for cycles in that bucket.

TSLA bucketSample countAvg TSLA return %X3 sleeve return % (med / mean)85_1585_15_trim85_15_w3kusd85_15_cc05_w3kusd85_15_cc05_target3k_w3kusd70_3070_30_trim70_30_w3kusd70_30_cc05_w3kusd70_30_cc05_target3k_w3kusd
-37.5% to -32.5%1-32.6%-22.5% / -22.5%
fan (4): min -22.5% · med -20.9% · max -5.2%
-31.1% / -31.1%
fan (4): min -34.5% · med -31.8% · max -30.7%
-31.8% / -31.8%
fan (4): min -36.0% · med -33.0% · max -31.8%
-31.1% / -31.1%
fan (4): min -34.5% · med -31.8% · max -30.7%
-27.8% / -27.8%
fan (4): min -31.5% · med -28.7% · max -27.8%
-31.1% / -31.1%
fan (4): min -34.5% · med -31.8% · max -30.7%
-29.6% / -29.6%
fan (4): min -31.8% · med -30.1% · max -26.2%
-30.7% / -30.7%
fan (4): min -34.6% · med -31.3% · max -30.2%
-29.6% / -29.6%
fan (4): min -31.9% · med -30.1% · max -26.2%
-26.8% / -26.8%
fan (4): min -29.4% · med -27.4% · max -24.1%
-29.6% / -29.6%
fan (4): min -31.8% · med -30.1% · max -26.2%
-32.5% to -27.5%1-27.6%-18.9% / -18.9%
fan (6): min -20.0% · med -19.3% · max +3.8%
-26.3% / -26.3%
fan (6): min -29.0% · med -28.5% · max -23.4%
-26.7% / -26.7%
fan (6): min -29.6% · med -29.0% · max -23.4%
-26.3% / -26.3%
fan (6): min -29.1% · med -28.5% · max -23.6%
-23.7% / -23.7%
fan (6): min -26.7% · med -26.1% · max -20.7%
-26.3% / -26.3%
fan (6): min -29.0% · med -28.5% · max -23.4%
-25.0% / -25.0%
fan (6): min -27.3% · med -26.9% · max -18.6%
-25.8% / -25.8%
fan (6): min -28.7% · med -27.6% · max -18.6%
-25.0% / -25.0%
fan (6): min -27.3% · med -26.9% · max -18.8%
-22.9% / -22.9%
fan (6): min -25.5% · med -24.8% · max -16.3%
-25.0% / -25.0%
fan (6): min -27.3% · med -26.9% · max -18.6%
-27.5% to -22.5%2-24.6%+1.9% / +1.9%
fan (6): min -25.0% · med -10.8% · max +1.9%
-20.6% / -20.6%
fan (6): min -26.1% · med -23.4% · max -20.6%
-20.9% / -20.9%
fan (6): min -26.4% · med -23.9% · max -20.9%
-20.8% / -20.8%
fan (6): min -26.1% · med -23.6% · max -20.8%
-17.4% / -17.4%
fan (6): min -23.7% · med -20.9% · max -17.4%
-20.6% / -20.6%
fan (6): min -26.1% · med -23.4% · max -20.6%
-16.7% / -16.7%
fan (6): min -25.7% · med -21.2% · max -16.7%
-17.1% / -17.1%
fan (6): min -26.0% · med -22.0% · max -17.1%
-16.8% / -16.8%
fan (6): min -25.8% · med -21.4% · max -16.8%
-13.9% / -13.9%
fan (6): min -22.8% · med -19.1% · max -13.9%
-16.7% / -16.7%
fan (6): min -25.7% · med -21.2% · max -16.7%
-22.5% to -17.5%4-20.7%-19.6% / -19.9%
fan (6): min -19.6% · med -8.4% · max +8.3%
-20.7% / -20.6%
fan (6): min -20.7% · med -18.7% · max -15.7%
-20.9% / -20.8%
fan (6): min -20.9% · med -18.8% · max -17.5%
-21.1% / -20.8%
fan (6): min -21.1% · med -18.7% · max -15.7%
-17.6% / -17.8%
fan (6): min -17.6% · med -15.8% · max -12.9%
-20.7% / -20.6%
fan (6): min -20.7% · med -18.7% · max -15.7%
-20.3% / -20.5%
fan (6): min -20.3% · med -15.7% · max -11.5%
-20.7% / -20.8%
fan (6): min -20.7% · med -16.7% · max -14.8%
-20.7% / -20.7%
fan (6): min -20.7% · med -15.7% · max -11.5%
-17.8% / -18.2%
fan (6): min -17.8% · med -13.4% · max -9.1%
-20.3% / -20.5%
fan (6): min -20.3% · med -15.7% · max -11.5%
-17.5% to -12.5%6-14.7%-15.8% / -17.7%
fan (6): min -21.6% · med -14.7% · max -7.7%
-15.3% / -15.2%
fan (6): min -16.0% · med -15.6% · max -15.1%
-15.3% / -15.1%
fan (6): min -16.1% · med -15.8% · max -15.3%
-15.3% / -15.3%
fan (6): min -16.1% · med -15.6% · max -15.3%
-10.9% / -11.6%
fan (6): min -13.0% · med -12.3% · max -10.9%
-15.2% / -15.2%
fan (6): min -16.0% · med -15.6% · max -15.1%
-15.6% / -15.6%
fan (6): min -17.1% · med -15.3% · max -13.7%
-15.6% / -15.5%
fan (6): min -16.7% · med -15.4% · max -14.8%
-15.6% / -15.8%
fan (6): min -17.1% · med -15.3% · max -14.2%
-12.5% / -12.7%
fan (6): min -14.0% · med -12.6% · max -11.6%
-15.6% / -15.6%
fan (6): min -17.1% · med -15.3% · max -13.7%
-12.5% to -7.5%9-9.4%-9.9% / -9.1%
fan (6): min -16.5% · med -11.6% · max -9.9%
-9.6% / -9.4%
fan (6): min -12.2% · med -10.6% · max -9.6%
-9.7% / -9.7%
fan (6): min -12.3% · med -10.3% · max -9.5%
-9.7% / -9.4%
fan (6): min -12.2% · med -10.6% · max -9.7%
-7.3% / -5.9%
fan (6): min -9.3% · med -7.5% · max -5.7%
-9.6% / -9.3%
fan (6): min -12.2% · med -10.6% · max -9.6%
-9.6% / -9.3%
fan (6): min -12.9% · med -11.2% · max -9.6%
-9.5% / -9.9%
fan (6): min -12.6% · med -10.8% · max -9.5%
-9.6% / -9.3%
fan (6): min -12.9% · med -11.4% · max -9.6%
-7.4% / -6.4%
fan (6): min -10.3% · med -8.4% · max -6.6%
-9.6% / -9.3%
fan (6): min -12.9% · med -11.2% · max -9.6%
-7.5% to -2.5%13-4.6%-17.9% / -20.5%
fan (6): min -23.8% · med -16.7% · max -12.3%
-6.7% / -6.9%
fan (6): min -7.9% · med -6.7% · max -5.8%
-6.4% / -6.5%
fan (6): min -7.3% · med -6.4% · max -5.4%
-6.8% / -7.1%
fan (6): min -7.9% · med -6.8% · max -5.8%
-3.5% / -3.6%
fan (6): min -5.1% · med -3.2% · max -2.3%
-6.7% / -6.9%
fan (6): min -7.9% · med -6.7% · max -5.8%
-9.1% / -9.3%
fan (6): min -10.6% · med -8.7% · max -7.2%
-8.4% / -8.5%
fan (6): min -9.2% · med -7.9% · max -6.6%
-9.1% / -9.4%
fan (6): min -10.6% · med -8.7% · max -7.3%
-6.2% / -6.6%
fan (6): min -8.8% · med -5.7% · max -4.5%
-9.1% / -9.3%
fan (6): min -10.6% · med -8.7% · max -7.2%
-2.5% to +2.5%8+0.2%-5.9% / -7.0%
fan (6): min -14.1% · med -6.3% · max -2.7%
-0.5% / -0.9%
fan (6): min -2.1% · med -0.5% · max +0.1%
-0.4% / -0.6%
fan (6): min -1.5% · med -0.3% · max +0.5%
-0.6% / -1.3%
fan (6): min -2.5% · med -0.6% · max -0.3%
+2.7% / +2.0%
fan (6): min +1.6% · med +2.6% · max +3.6%
-0.5% / -0.9%
fan (6): min -2.1% · med -0.5% · max +0.1%
-1.4% / -2.0%
fan (6): min -4.2% · med -1.7% · max -0.2%
-1.2% / -1.5%
fan (6): min -3.1% · med -1.1% · max -0.3%
-2.1% / -2.4%
fan (6): min -4.7% · med -2.1% · max -0.8%
+0.7% / +0.4%
fan (6): min -1.4% · med +0.6% · max +1.4%
-1.4% / -2.0%
fan (6): min -4.2% · med -1.7% · max -0.2%
+2.5% to +7.5%13+4.9%-3.7% / -0.5%
fan (6): min -3.9% · med -2.0% · max +4.6%
+3.5% / +4.0%
fan (6): min +2.9% · med +3.8% · max +4.9%
+4.0% / +4.2%
fan (6): min +3.0% · med +4.1% · max +4.8%
+3.5% / +3.9%
fan (6): min +2.9% · med +3.7% · max +4.9%
+6.4% / +6.8%
fan (6): min +6.4% · med +7.3% · max +8.1%
+3.5% / +4.0%
fan (6): min +2.9% · med +3.8% · max +4.9%
+2.5% / +3.2%
fan (6): min +1.4% · med +3.0% · max +5.1%
+2.8% / +3.4%
fan (6): min +1.5% · med +3.2% · max +5.0%
+2.5% / +3.1%
fan (6): min +1.4% · med +3.0% · max +5.1%
+4.8% / +5.5%
fan (6): min +4.6% · med +5.1% · max +7.1%
+2.5% / +3.2%
fan (6): min +1.4% · med +3.0% · max +5.1%
+7.5% to +12.5%7+10.4%+25.6% / +30.2%
fan (6): min -2.5% · med +8.9% · max +25.6%
+13.3% / +13.4%
fan (6): min +6.3% · med +9.0% · max +13.3%
+12.4% / +12.5%
fan (6): min +6.8% · med +9.5% · max +12.4%
+13.3% / +13.3%
fan (6): min +6.2% · med +8.7% · max +13.3%
+11.7% / +12.6%
fan (6): min +8.3% · med +9.1% · max +11.7%
+13.2% / +13.3%
fan (6): min +6.2% · med +8.7% · max +13.2%
+15.5% / +16.3%
fan (6): min +4.6% · med +8.4% · max +15.5%
+14.6% / +14.8%
fan (6): min +5.8% · med +8.9% · max +14.6%
+15.5% / +16.3%
fan (6): min +4.6% · med +8.3% · max +15.5%
+14.1% / +15.7%
fan (6): min +6.2% · med +8.3% · max +14.1%
+15.4% / +16.3%
fan (6): min +4.6% · med +8.3% · max +15.4%
+12.5% to +17.5%4+14.6%+7.1% / +9.8%
fan (6): min +7.1% · med +23.5% · max +30.6%
+13.1% / +13.9%
fan (6): min +13.1% · med +15.7% · max +17.5%
+13.2% / +13.9%
fan (6): min +13.2% · med +15.0% · max +16.7%
+13.0% / +13.7%
fan (6): min +13.0% · med +15.6% · max +17.5%
+11.6% / +11.3%
fan (6): min +11.2% · med +11.6% · max +12.4%
+13.0% / +13.6%
fan (6): min +13.0% · med +15.5% · max +17.3%
+12.0% / +13.2%
fan (6): min +12.0% · med +17.4% · max +19.8%
+12.3% / +13.2%
fan (6): min +12.3% · med +16.5% · max +18.5%
+12.0% / +13.0%
fan (6): min +12.0% · med +17.0% · max +19.8%
+10.3% / +11.0%
fan (6): min +10.3% · med +13.7% · max +15.2%
+12.0% / +12.9%
fan (6): min +12.0% · med +16.8% · max +19.7%
+17.5% to +22.5%6+20.5%+43.0% / +40.4%
fan (5): min -27.5% · med +34.6% · max +43.0%
+23.0% / +23.5%
fan (5): min +11.5% · med +21.9% · max +23.0%
+22.1% / +22.6%
fan (5): min +11.8% · med +21.4% · max +22.1%
+22.3% / +23.2%
fan (5): min +11.4% · med +21.8% · max +22.8%
+14.7% / +15.7%
fan (5): min +13.8% · med +14.7% · max +14.7%
+21.9% / +22.7%
fan (5): min +11.4% · med +21.7% · max +22.8%
+26.5% / +26.5%
fan (5): min +4.6% · med +23.7% · max +26.6%
+24.8% / +24.9%
fan (5): min +5.2% · med +22.4% · max +24.8%
+25.7% / +26.2%
fan (5): min +4.6% · med +23.7% · max +26.5%
+18.7% / +20.0%
fan (5): min +6.7% · med +18.5% · max +19.5%
+24.4% / +25.6%
fan (5): min +4.6% · med +23.6% · max +26.4%
+22.5% to +27.5%2+24.9%+27.9% / +27.9%
fan (6): min +26.4% · med +40.0% · max +74.3%
+25.4% / +25.4%
fan (6): min +23.4% · med +27.5% · max +32.9%
+25.3% / +25.3%
fan (6): min +23.3% · med +26.9% · max +30.7%
+25.3% / +25.3%
fan (6): min +23.1% · med +27.2% · max +32.9%
+12.1% / +12.1%
fan (6): min +12.1% · med +14.0% · max +19.1%
+25.2% / +25.2%
fan (6): min +22.5% · med +26.8% · max +32.7%
+25.8% / +25.8%
fan (6): min +24.0% · med +29.7% · max +40.0%
+25.6% / +25.6%
fan (6): min +23.6% · med +28.6% · max +37.0%
+25.8% / +25.8%
fan (6): min +23.5% · med +29.3% · max +40.0%
+14.9% / +14.9%
fan (6): min +14.9% · med +18.5% · max +28.7%
+25.7% / +25.7%
fan (6): min +22.9% · med +28.2% · max +39.9%
+27.5% to +32.5%3+30.2%+87.7% / +64.7%
fan (6): min +21.1% · med +66.0% · max +87.7%
+40.3% / +35.4%
fan (6): min +29.3% · med +36.1% · max +40.3%
+35.8% / +33.0%
fan (6): min +29.9% · med +34.1% · max +37.1%
+40.3% / +35.0%
fan (6): min +29.2% · med +35.8% · max +40.3%
+21.1% / +17.3%
fan (6): min +11.6% · med +20.4% · max +21.7%
+30.8% / +31.7%
fan (6): min +29.0% · med +32.3% · max +36.9%
+48.7% / +40.5%
fan (6): min +27.8% · med +42.1% · max +48.7%
+42.3% / +36.2%
fan (6): min +28.9% · med +36.9% · max +46.0%
+48.6% / +40.2%
fan (6): min +27.8% · med +41.8% · max +48.6%
+33.2% / +25.6%
fan (6): min +13.4% · med +27.2% · max +33.3%
+40.6% / +36.4%
fan (6): min +27.7% · med +38.1% · max +45.9%
+32.5% to +37.5%2+35.5%+79.7% / +79.7%
fan (6): min +28.8% · med +60.4% · max +79.7%
+42.1% / +42.1%
fan (6): min +33.0% · med +39.2% · max +42.1%
+42.1% / +42.1%
fan (6): min +33.3% · med +38.8% · max +42.1%
+41.5% / +41.5%
fan (6): min +33.0% · med +38.5% · max +41.5%
+20.6% / +20.6%
fan (6): min +15.1% · med +17.7% · max +20.6%
+38.1% / +38.1%
fan (6): min +32.8% · med +35.9% · max +38.1%
+48.8% / +48.8%
fan (6): min +32.3% · med +43.0% · max +48.8%
+48.6% / +48.6%
fan (6): min +32.8% · med +42.1% · max +48.6%
+48.1% / +48.1%
fan (6): min +32.2% · med +42.2% · max +48.1%
+30.9% / +30.9%
fan (6): min +16.1% · med +25.0% · max +30.9%
+44.3% / +44.3%
fan (6): min +32.1% · med +39.4% · max +44.3%
+37.5% to +42.5%1+41.0%+94.5% / +94.5%
fan (6): min +94.5% · med +120.8% · max +126.3%
+49.0% / +49.0%
fan (6): min +49.0% · med +51.1% · max +53.4%
+49.0% / +49.0%
fan (6): min +47.8% · med +49.1% · max +50.8%
+48.5% / +48.5%
fan (6): min +48.5% · med +51.0% · max +53.2%
+28.9% / +28.9%
fan (6): min +26.3% · med +27.7% · max +28.9%
+47.6% / +47.6%
fan (6): min +47.6% · med +50.6% · max +52.2%
+57.0% / +57.0%
fan (6): min +57.0% · med +63.5% · max +66.2%
+57.0% / +57.0%
fan (6): min +56.1% · med +57.9% · max +63.3%
+56.6% / +56.6%
fan (6): min +56.6% · med +63.5% · max +66.1%
+40.5% / +40.5%
fan (6): min +40.5% · med +43.0% · max +44.8%
+55.8% / +55.8%
fan (6): min +55.8% · med +63.2% · max +65.3%
+42.5% to +47.5%2+44.1%+188.8% / +188.8%
fan (6): min +94.5% · med +143.5% · max +261.5%
+65.8% / +65.8%
fan (6): min +52.0% · med +59.7% · max +76.9%
+58.6% / +58.6%
fan (6): min +52.0% · med +55.5% · max +63.5%
+65.8% / +65.8%
fan (6): min +51.6% · med +59.7% · max +76.9%
+38.3% / +38.3%
fan (6): min +29.9% · med +33.0% · max +46.2%
+65.2% / +65.2%
fan (6): min +50.5% · med +59.3% · max +76.3%
+87.5% / +87.5%
fan (6): min +59.5% · med +74.5% · max +109.5%
+74.9% / +74.9%
fan (6): min +59.5% · med +67.1% · max +85.6%
+87.5% / +87.5%
fan (6): min +59.1% · med +74.5% · max +109.5%
+64.9% / +64.9%
fan (6): min +41.4% · med +52.6% · max +84.3%
+87.1% / +87.1%
fan (6): min +58.2% · med +74.2% · max +109.1%
+47.5% to +52.5%3+50.4%+152.7% / +151.6%
fan (4): min +87.9% · med +140.2% · max +180.8%
+64.6% / +65.6%
fan (4): min +54.8% · med +63.9% · max +68.0%
+63.8% / +62.1%
fan (4): min +53.4% · med +63.2% · max +64.3%
+64.4% / +65.2%
fan (4): min +54.5% · med +63.7% · max +68.0%
+35.9% / +34.0%
fan (4): min +23.8% · med +32.6% · max +36.2%
+63.4% / +63.1%
fan (4): min +53.3% · med +62.6% · max +67.3%
+80.2% / +80.7%
fan (4): min +60.7% · med +77.4% · max +87.9%
+78.8% / +74.8%
fan (4): min +58.2% · med +76.2% · max +79.3%
+80.0% / +80.4%
fan (4): min +60.4% · med +77.2% · max +87.9%
+56.6% / +54.8%
fan (4): min +35.1% · med +51.6% · max +60.1%
+79.2% / +78.4%
fan (4): min +59.3% · med +76.3% · max +87.4%
+52.5% to +57.5%1+54.7%+150.5% / +150.5%
fan (3): min +82.4% · med +150.5% · max +150.5%
+69.1% / +69.1%
fan (3): min +60.2% · med +68.0% · max +69.1%
+69.1% / +69.1%
fan (3): min +59.1% · med +68.0% · max +69.1%
+68.9% / +68.9%
fan (3): min +60.2% · med +67.8% · max +68.9%
+35.0% / +35.0%
fan (3): min +22.5% · med +34.5% · max +35.0%
+68.2% / +68.2%
fan (3): min +59.9% · med +66.9% · max +68.2%
+83.4% / +83.4%
fan (3): min +64.1% · med +82.5% · max +83.4%
+83.4% / +83.4%
fan (3): min +62.2% · med +82.5% · max +83.4%
+83.3% / +83.3%
fan (3): min +64.1% · med +82.4% · max +83.3%
+55.4% / +55.4%
fan (3): min +33.0% · med +55.1% · max +55.4%
+82.8% / +82.8%
fan (3): min +64.0% · med +81.8% · max +82.8%
Overall88+1703.2%+37714.0%+3881.3%+2997.7%+3435.8%+1466.4%+2996.9%+7702.2%+5143.2%+6784.4%+4200.1%+5963.4%

Premium yield per cycle (SPEC §6.8)

For each CC cycle: premium received ÷ value of the stock being covered (n_contracts × 100 × spot_at_sale) × 100. Strike-comparable yield, scale-invariant — depends only on strike distance, DTE and IV, not on portfolio size or year. With a monthly schedule this is a per-month yield; multiply by 12 for a rough annualized read (ignores compounding and assignment losses). The bottom row shows realized cashflow extremes in USD (in target_cashflow mode integer-contract rounding can push a single cycle past the cited target on high-IV days). Histograms below the table show the per-cycle USD distribution for each strategy side-by-side.

Stat85_15
full coverage
85_15_trim
full coverage
85_15_w3kusd
full coverage
85_15_cc05_w3kusd
full coverage
85_15_cc05_target3k_w3kusd
target $3,000/cycle
70_30
full coverage
70_30_trim
full coverage
70_30_w3kusd
full coverage
70_30_cc05_w3kusd
full coverage
70_30_cc05_target3k_w3kusd
target $3,000/cycle
Median %———4.190.05———4.190.04
Mean %———4.640.19———4.640.22
p25 / p75 %———3.52 / 5.660.04 / 0.10———3.52 / 5.660.02 / 0.08
Min / Max %———1.62 / 9.240.02 / 1.34———1.62 / 9.240.01 / 1.81
Min / Max premium USD———5,797 / 477,4183,004 / 4,711———4,304 / 1,168,9733,004 / 4,711
Net premium after put cost USD——————————
# CC cycles00086860008686
CC premium per cycle (full period — does not respond to the period selector).
85_15
no CC cycles
85_15_trim
no CC cycles
85_15_w3kusd
no CC cycles
premium histogram for 85_15_cc05_w3kusd
premium histogram for 85_15_cc05_target3k_w3kusd
70_30
no CC cycles
70_30_trim
no CC cycles
70_30_w3kusd
no CC cycles
premium histogram for 70_30_cc05_w3kusd
premium histogram for 70_30_cc05_target3k_w3kusd

Equity curves

Log-scale USD NAV. Green shading marks days TSLA closed above its 10-day MA — the X3 sleeve is leveraged during these regimes.

·Resolution:
Equity curves — log-scale USD NAV (post-tax)$1,000,000$10,000,0002020202120222023202420252026NAV USD (log)70_3070_30_w3kusd70_30_cc05_target3k_w3kusd70_30_trim70_30_cc05_w3kusd85_1585_15_w3kusd85_15_trim85_15_cc05_target3k_w3kusd85_15_cc05_w3kusd

Regime behavior (SPEC §6.10)

Aggregates each strategy's annualized return across all windows of the same regime tag (see config/periods.yaml). Each (strategy × period) is its own fresh-start backtest from $500k. Cell format: median CAGR % / mean CAGR % across the n windows in that tag.

Regime tag85_1585_15_trim85_15_w3kusd85_15_cc05_w3kusd85_15_cc05_target3k_w3kusd70_3070_30_trim70_30_w3kusd70_30_cc05_w3kusd70_30_cc05_target3k_w3kusd
Full real-options window (n=1)+69.7% / +69.7%+63.3% / +63.3%+66.2% / +66.2%+42.2% / +42.2%+62.7% / +62.7%+90.0% / +90.0%+78.7% / +78.7%+86.0% / +86.0%+68.7% / +68.7%+82.3% / +82.3%
Flat (sideways with structure) (n=2)+13.8% / +13.8%+10.3% / +10.3%+6.0% / +6.0%+7.0% / +7.0%+3.6% / +3.6%+27.2% / +27.2%+21.3% / +21.3%+19.8% / +19.8%+23.1% / +23.1%+18.0% / +18.0%
Round-trip up (peak in middle, ends near start) (n=2)+10.9% / +10.9%+10.3% / +10.3%+5.3% / +5.3%+9.8% / +9.8%+3.6% / +3.6%+20.2% / +20.2%+19.5% / +19.5%+14.6% / +14.6%+21.5% / +21.5%+13.2% / +13.2%
Round-trip down / V-shape (trough in middle, ends near start) (n=3)+13.1% / +17.0%+11.6% / +15.6%+5.1% / +8.4%+15.1% / +13.2%+7.2% / +8.0%+16.0% / +32.7%+13.6% / +30.3%+8.0% / +23.7%+20.9% / +28.4%+10.4% / +23.5%
Up strong (>+60% sustained rally) (n=2)+151.1% / +151.1%+145.2% / +145.2%+146.9% / +146.9%+92.3% / +92.3%+141.4% / +141.4%+188.3% / +188.3%+177.5% / +177.5%+184.2% / +184.2%+138.8% / +138.8%+178.6% / +178.6%
Down strong (<-35% sustained drop) (n=2)-40.1% / -40.1%-40.7% / -40.7%-45.2% / -45.2%-40.6% / -40.6%-44.7% / -44.7%-28.8% / -28.8%-30.0% / -30.0%-34.2% / -34.2%-28.8% / -28.8%-33.3% / -33.3%
Ends higher (+20% to +60%) (n=5)+35.7% / +45.4%+32.1% / +43.9%+25.2% / +36.3%+23.2% / +23.4%+19.7% / +30.6%+34.9% / +56.7%+35.2% / +54.5%+28.1% / +47.4%+23.8% / +38.0%+22.6% / +41.8%
Ends lower (-10% to -35%) (n=2)-9.9% / -9.9%-11.7% / -11.7%-18.5% / -18.5%-6.9% / -6.9%-16.6% / -16.6%-1.1% / -1.1%-4.2% / -4.2%-10.0% / -10.0%+0.8% / +0.8%-7.6% / -7.6%
Multi-oscillation (≥4 sign flips, ends near start) (n=1)+6.5% / +6.5%+4.2% / +4.2%-2.8% / -2.8%+3.8% / +3.8%-2.9% / -2.9%+6.9% / +6.9%+3.1% / +3.1%-2.7% / -2.7%+3.7% / +3.7%-2.8% / -2.8%
Really bad x3 periods (x3 peak-DD ≥85%, asymmetric to stock) (n=4)-8.4% / -1.7%-11.6% / -4.0%-18.7% / -11.1%-4.4% / -7.4%-17.6% / -12.6%-2.5% / +0.7%-7.9% / -3.2%-13.9% / -9.5%-5.1% / -5.0%-13.0% / -10.6%