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Strategies
Timing
Note: close_open and open_open price trade events at exec_spot while NAV is marked at the day's close, so day 1 of any backtest carries a small lookahead bias (~1% on the initial cash-to-stock rebalance) that compounds proportionally through the run — even for stockonly with no X3 or CC, since the very first rebalance buys shares at exec_spot. Subsequent days are unaffected (same shares, close-to-close moves). Treat the spread between variants as the robustness signal, not absolute numbers under non-close_close modes.
Robustness

Put Strategies Comparison

Mirrors the curated short-list in `best_strategies` (85/15 and 70/30 sleeves, with and without 5% OTM CC overlay) and pairs each with its put-variant twin. The collar (CC + put) variants fund the put from CC premium first; the no-CC put variants pay from cash, falling through to whole-share sales at spot when cash is insufficient.

Generated 2026-05-06 10:47 · Period: 2019-01-02 → 2026-04-29 · Runs: stock_only_collar_w3kusd, 85_15, 85_15_put15, 85_15_cc05, 85_15_cc05_put15, 70_30, 70_30_put15, 70_30_cc05, 70_30_cc05_put05, 70_30_cc05_put10, 70_30_cc05_put10_w3kusd, 70_30_cc05_put15, 70_30_cc05_put20, 70_30_cc10_put15, 70_30_cc15_put15, 50_50_cc05_put10_w3kusd, 50_50_cc05_put05_w3kusd, 30_70_cc05_put05_w3kusd

Reading the absolute numbers: SPEC §9 caveats apply. Costs are modeled (CC premium haircut, X3 trade cost) but real-world frictions like MA10 whipsaw timing, vol-spike spread blowouts, and FX spread are not. Treat differences between runs as much more reliable than absolute returns.

Strategy settings

SPEC §5 fields per strategy. Monthly anchor and X3 timing are controlled by the global toggle in the filter bar — every strategy runs under all 6 timing variants.

Settingstock_only_collar_w3kusd85_1585_15_put1585_15_cc0585_15_cc05_put1570_3070_30_put1570_30_cc0570_30_cc05_put0570_30_cc05_put1070_30_cc05_put10_w3kusd70_30_cc05_put1570_30_cc05_put2070_30_cc10_put1570_30_cc15_put1550_50_cc05_put10_w3kusd50_50_cc05_put05_w3kusd30_70_cc05_put05_w3kusd
Start date2019-01-012019-01-012019-01-012019-01-012019-01-012019-01-012019-01-012019-01-012019-01-012019-01-012019-01-012019-01-012019-01-012019-01-012019-01-012019-01-012019-01-012019-01-01
End date2026-04-302026-04-302026-04-302026-04-302026-04-302026-04-302026-04-302026-04-302026-04-302026-04-302026-04-302026-04-302026-04-302026-04-302026-04-302026-04-302026-04-302026-04-30
Initial capital (USD)500000.0500000.0500000.0500000.0500000.0500000.0500000.0500000.0500000.0500000.0500000.0500000.0500000.0500000.0500000.0500000.0500000.0500000.0
Monthly anchor (toggle)lastlastlastlastlastlastlastlastlastlastlastlastlastlastlastlastlastlast
X3 timing (toggle)close_closeclose_closeclose_closeclose_closeclose_closeclose_closeclose_closeclose_closeclose_closeclose_closeclose_closeclose_closeclose_closeclose_closeclose_closeclose_closeclose_closeclose_close
CC enabledtruefalsefalsetruetruefalsefalsetruetruetruetruetruetruetruetruetruetruetrue
CC OTM %5.013.013.05.05.013.013.05.05.05.05.05.05.010.015.05.05.05.0
Withdrawal/cycle USD3000.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.03000.00.00.00.00.03000.03000.03000.0
Stock sleeve %100.085.085.085.085.070.070.070.070.070.070.070.070.070.070.050.050.030.0
X3 sleeve %0.015.015.015.015.030.030.030.030.030.030.030.030.030.030.050.050.070.0
X3 drag %0.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
X3 MA window101010101010101010101010101010101010
HV window303030303030303030303030303030303030
IV multiplier1.121.121.121.121.121.121.121.121.121.121.121.121.121.121.121.121.121.12
X3 trade cost %0.250.250.250.250.250.250.250.250.250.250.250.250.250.250.250.250.250.25
CC haircut %3.03.03.03.03.03.03.03.03.03.03.03.03.03.03.03.03.03.0
Put enabledtrue—true—true—true—truetruetruetruetruetruetruetruetruetrue
Put OTM %5.0—15.0—15.0—15.0—5.010.010.015.020.015.015.010.05.05.0
Put fundingpremium_first—cash_first—premium_first—cash_first—premium_firstpremium_firstpremium_firstpremium_firstpremium_firstpremium_firstpremium_firstpremium_firstpremium_firstpremium_first
Put max cost % of premiumnull—null—null—null—nullnullnullnullnullnullnullnullnullnull

Summary metrics

NAV is engine state (does not include withdrawn cash). Total wealth = Final NAV + cumulative withdrawn. Cells with two numbers show total above, median per cycle below. The dispersion subline (toggle in filter bar) shows min · median · max of each metric across the timing-variant family.

Metricstock_only_collar_w3kusd85_1585_15_put1585_15_cc0585_15_cc05_put1570_3070_30_put1570_30_cc0570_30_cc05_put0570_30_cc05_put1070_30_cc05_put10_w3kusd70_30_cc05_put1570_30_cc05_put2070_30_cc10_put1570_30_cc15_put1550_50_cc05_put10_w3kusd50_50_cc05_put05_w3kusd30_70_cc05_put05_w3kusd
Initial NAV (USD)500,000
fan (6): min 500,000 · med 505,081 · max 506,566
500,000
fan (6): min 500,000 · med 504,319 · max 505,581
500,000
fan (6): min 500,000 · med 504,319 · max 505,581
500,000
fan (6): min 500,000 · med 504,319 · max 505,581
500,000
fan (6): min 500,000 · med 504,319 · max 505,581
500,000
fan (6): min 500,000 · med 503,557 · max 504,596
500,000
fan (6): min 500,000 · med 503,557 · max 504,596
500,000
fan (6): min 500,000 · med 503,557 · max 504,596
500,000
fan (6): min 500,000 · med 503,557 · max 504,596
500,000
fan (6): min 500,000 · med 503,557 · max 504,596
500,000
fan (6): min 500,000 · med 503,557 · max 504,596
500,000
fan (6): min 500,000 · med 503,557 · max 504,596
500,000
fan (6): min 500,000 · med 503,557 · max 504,596
500,000
fan (6): min 500,000 · med 503,557 · max 504,596
500,000
fan (6): min 500,000 · med 503,557 · max 504,596
500,000
fan (6): min 500,000 · med 502,541 · max 503,283
500,000
fan (6): min 500,000 · med 502,541 · max 503,283
500,000
fan (6): min 500,000 · med 501,524 · max 501,970
Final NAV (USD, post-tax)24,513,908
fan (6): min 9,844,501 · med 24,779,871 · max 32,031,143
19,906,704
fan (6): min 17,852,649 · med 19,904,805 · max 23,524,738
11,152,245
fan (6): min 9,887,417 · med 11,988,633 · max 15,659,075
8,942,546
fan (6): min 6,142,498 · med 7,954,588 · max 10,335,003
20,564,773
fan (6): min 13,629,726 · med 21,361,941 · max 23,724,085
39,010,984
fan (6): min 31,159,883 · med 38,914,054 · max 50,689,892
24,267,975
fan (6): min 19,046,213 · med 24,337,990 · max 34,443,487
24,370,745
fan (6): min 17,863,050 · med 21,841,988 · max 33,105,163
141,472,620
fan (6): min 76,530,996 · med 142,278,029 · max 200,005,227
80,885,886
fan (6): min 49,710,313 · med 82,730,952 · max 109,486,479
71,873,002
fan (6): min 44,137,844 · med 73,263,782 · max 97,785,980
48,328,610
fan (6): min 34,401,577 · med 48,432,291 · max 65,611,791
33,025,471
fan (6): min 24,239,467 · med 32,642,846 · max 47,467,235
46,676,108
fan (6): min 33,653,278 · med 42,053,234 · max 57,063,849
43,320,300
fan (6): min 30,096,416 · med 39,272,301 · max 48,283,953
135,977,046
fan (6): min 86,951,341 · med 127,619,510 · max 199,983,393
207,794,032
fan (6): min 134,224,363 · med 194,011,949 · max 313,758,303
239,878,214
fan (6): min 136,893,713 · med 212,665,564 · max 344,191,137
Increased NAV (USD, post-tax)
+24,013,908avg: +273,923/mo
fan (6): min 9,339,420 · med 24,279,871 · max 31,524,577
+19,406,704avg: +221,369/mo
fan (6): min 17,347,067 · med 19,402,645 · max 23,020,419
+10,652,245avg: +121,508/mo
fan (6): min 9,381,836 · med 11,485,843 · max 15,159,075
+8,442,546avg: +96,303/mo
fan (6): min 5,638,179 · med 7,451,798 · max 9,830,684
+20,064,773avg: +228,876/mo
fan (6): min 13,125,407 · med 20,859,151 · max 23,224,085
+38,510,984avg: +439,289/mo
fan (6): min 30,655,287 · med 38,412,276 · max 50,186,335
+23,767,975avg: +271,118/mo
fan (6): min 18,541,617 · med 23,835,691 · max 33,943,487
+23,870,745avg: +272,290/mo
fan (6): min 17,359,493 · med 21,339,690 · max 32,601,606
+140,972,620avg: +1,608,053/mo
fan (6): min 76,027,439 · med 141,775,730 · max 199,505,227
+80,385,886avg: +916,949/mo
fan (6): min 49,206,756 · med 82,228,654 · max 108,986,479
+71,373,002avg: +814,141/mo
fan (6): min 43,634,287 · med 72,761,484 · max 97,285,980
+47,828,610avg: +545,574/mo
fan (6): min 33,898,020 · med 47,929,993 · max 65,108,234
+32,525,471avg: +371,013/mo
fan (6): min 23,735,910 · med 32,140,548 · max 46,963,678
+46,176,108avg: +526,724/mo
fan (6): min 33,149,721 · med 41,550,936 · max 56,560,292
+42,820,300avg: +488,444/mo
fan (6): min 29,591,819 · med 38,770,003 · max 47,780,396
+135,477,046avg: +1,545,366/mo
fan (6): min 86,448,058 · med 127,117,869 · max 199,480,852
+207,294,032avg: +2,364,571/mo
fan (6): min 133,721,822 · med 193,510,307 · max 313,255,763
+239,378,214avg: +2,730,550/mo
fan (6): min 136,391,743 · med 212,164,802 · max 343,689,612
Withdrawn cash (USD)
258,000median: 3,000/cycle (n=86)
fan (6): min 255,000 · med 256,500 · max 258,000
0
fan (6): min 0 · med 0 · max 0
0
fan (6): min 0 · med 0 · max 0
0
fan (6): min 0 · med 0 · max 0
0
fan (6): min 0 · med 0 · max 0
0
fan (6): min 0 · med 0 · max 0
0
fan (6): min 0 · med 0 · max 0
0
fan (6): min 0 · med 0 · max 0
0
fan (6): min 0 · med 0 · max 0
0
fan (6): min 0 · med 0 · max 0
258,000median: 3,000/cycle (n=86)
fan (6): min 255,000 · med 256,500 · max 258,000
0
fan (6): min 0 · med 0 · max 0
0
fan (6): min 0 · med 0 · max 0
0
fan (6): min 0 · med 0 · max 0
0
fan (6): min 0 · med 0 · max 0
257,916median: 3,000/cycle (n=86)
fan (6): min 255,000 · med 256,291 · max 258,000
258,000median: 3,000/cycle (n=86)
fan (6): min 255,000 · med 256,415 · max 258,000
251,949median: 3,000/cycle (n=86)
fan (6): min 247,102 · med 249,438 · max 251,949
Total wealth (NAV + withdrawn, USD post-tax)
24,771,908+4854.4% of initial
fan (6): min 10,102,501 · med 25,036,371 · max 32,289,143
19,906,704+3881.3% of initial
fan (6): min 17,852,649 · med 19,904,805 · max 23,524,738
11,152,245+2130.4% of initial
fan (6): min 9,887,417 · med 11,988,633 · max 15,659,075
8,942,546+1688.5% of initial
fan (6): min 6,142,498 · med 7,954,588 · max 10,335,003
20,564,773+4013.0% of initial
fan (6): min 13,629,726 · med 21,361,941 · max 23,724,085
39,010,984+7702.2% of initial
fan (6): min 31,159,883 · med 38,914,054 · max 50,689,892
24,267,975+4753.6% of initial
fan (6): min 19,046,213 · med 24,337,990 · max 34,443,487
24,370,745+4774.1% of initial
fan (6): min 17,863,050 · med 21,841,988 · max 33,105,163
141,472,620+28194.5% of initial
fan (6): min 76,530,996 · med 142,278,029 · max 200,005,227
80,885,886+16077.2% of initial
fan (6): min 49,710,313 · med 82,730,952 · max 109,486,479
72,131,002+14326.2% of initial
fan (6): min 44,395,844 · med 73,520,282 · max 98,040,980
48,328,610+9565.7% of initial
fan (6): min 34,401,577 · med 48,432,291 · max 65,611,791
33,025,471+6505.1% of initial
fan (6): min 24,239,467 · med 32,642,846 · max 47,467,235
46,676,108+9235.2% of initial
fan (6): min 33,653,278 · med 42,053,234 · max 57,063,849
43,320,300+8564.1% of initial
fan (6): min 30,096,416 · med 39,272,301 · max 48,283,953
136,234,963+27147.0% of initial
fan (6): min 87,208,922 · med 127,875,968 · max 200,238,393
208,052,032+41510.4% of initial
fan (6): min 134,482,363 · med 194,268,449 · max 314,013,303
240,130,162+47926.0% of initial
fan (6): min 137,143,335 · med 212,917,232 · max 344,440,061
CAGR USD70.72%
fan (6): min 50.5% · med 71.0% · max 76.8%
66.21%
fan (6): min 63.5% · med 66.1% · max 69.8%
53.59%
fan (6): min 50.9% · med 54.9% · max 60.9%
48.90%
fan (6): min 41.3% · med 46.4% · max 51.7%
66.79%
fan (6): min 57.5% · med 67.5% · max 70.1%
82.24%
fan (6): min 76.5% · med 82.1% · max 88.7%
70.83%
fan (6): min 65.0% · med 70.8% · max 79.2%
70.79%
fan (6): min 63.5% · med 68.0% · max 77.9%
117.08%
fan (6): min 99.4% · med 117.1% · max 127.6%
101.17%
fan (6): min 88.0% · med 101.6% · max 109.6%
97.94%
fan (6): min 85.0% · med 98.3% · max 106.4%
87.50%
fan (6): min 78.8% · med 87.4% · max 95.3%
78.01%
fan (6): min 70.5% · med 77.6% · max 86.8%
86.63%
fan (6): min 78.3% · med 83.7% · max 91.6%
84.76%
fan (6): min 75.5% · med 82.1% · max 87.3%
116.07%
fan (6): min 103.1% · med 114.0% · max 127.6%
128.91%
fan (6): min 115.5% · med 126.6% · max 142.0%
133.60%
fan (6): min 116.2% · med 129.5% · max 145.3%
Max drawdown
-20.8%559,960 → 443,4522019-01-17 → 2019-04-25
fan (6): min -22.5% · med -21.4% · max -20.7%
-75.1%18,148,828 → 4,525,4332021-11-04 → 2023-01-03
fan (6): min -75.1% · med -73.9% · max -73.1%
-73.0%11,119,492 → 3,002,5242021-11-04 → 2023-01-03
fan (6): min -73.2% · med -70.5% · max -67.3%
-64.4%6,066,611 → 2,156,8732022-01-03 → 2022-12-27
fan (6): min -69.3% · med -64.0% · max -61.0%
-47.5%7,210,403 → 3,788,8322022-01-03 → 2023-01-03
fan (6): min -49.7% · med -45.9% · max -41.0%
-76.6%30,436,283 → 7,126,1342021-11-04 → 2023-01-03
fan (6): min -76.6% · med -74.6% · max -73.2%
-75.1%20,427,175 → 5,093,5812021-11-04 → 2023-01-03
fan (6): min -75.2% · med -71.6% · max -69.3%
-68.4%14,035,808 → 4,434,7772021-11-04 → 2022-12-27
fan (6): min -70.9% · med -67.3% · max -63.6%
-40.7%545,364 → 323,6642019-01-17 → 2019-05-28
fan (6): min -43.7% · med -41.9% · max -40.7%
-45.5%18,641,049 → 10,162,7222021-11-04 → 2022-12-23
fan (6): min -51.3% · med -46.3% · max -44.2%
-46.6%545,364 → 291,4672019-01-17 → 2019-06-03
fan (6): min -51.6% · med -47.8% · max -45.6%
-56.2%16,088,893 → 7,046,0462021-11-04 → 2023-01-03
fan (6): min -58.2% · med -53.5% · max -49.8%
-61.9%14,557,918 → 5,543,3142021-11-04 → 2023-01-03
fan (6): min -64.1% · med -59.5% · max -56.6%
-60.8%17,166,168 → 6,725,3592021-11-04 → 2023-01-03
fan (6): min -63.3% · med -58.4% · max -54.9%
-64.8%18,414,667 → 6,487,7912021-11-04 → 2023-01-03
fan (6): min -66.9% · med -62.5% · max -58.2%
-60.9%37,378,108 → 14,621,5892021-11-04 → 2022-12-23
fan (6): min -64.1% · med -60.2% · max -56.0%
-55.3%40,762,579 → 18,231,0022021-11-04 → 2022-12-22
fan (6): min -59.1% · med -56.5% · max -54.2%
-70.2%72,520,872 → 21,619,1712021-11-04 → 2023-01-10
fan (6): min -71.7% · med -68.3% · max -65.0%
Sharpe USD2.36
fan (6): min 1.88 · med 2.32 · max 2.50
1.02
fan (6): min 1.00 · med 1.02 · max 1.04
0.93
fan (6): min 0.91 · med 0.95 · max 1.00
0.97
fan (6): min 0.85 · med 0.93 · max 0.99
1.36
fan (6): min 1.21 · med 1.34 · max 1.37
1.10
fan (6): min 1.07 · med 1.10 · max 1.14
1.04
fan (6): min 0.99 · med 1.04 · max 1.10
1.11
fan (6): min 1.03 · med 1.08 · max 1.15
1.68
fan (6): min 1.52 · med 1.66 · max 1.70
1.49
fan (6): min 1.36 · med 1.47 · max 1.51
1.46
fan (6): min 1.33 · med 1.44 · max 1.49
1.33
fan (6): min 1.24 · med 1.31 · max 1.35
1.21
fan (6): min 1.13 · med 1.20 · max 1.26
1.28
fan (6): min 1.20 · med 1.25 · max 1.30
1.24
fan (6): min 1.14 · med 1.22 · max 1.24
1.34
fan (6): min 1.26 · med 1.32 · max 1.38
1.43
fan (6): min 1.35 · med 1.40 · max 1.47
1.31
fan (6): min 1.24 · med 1.30 · max 1.36
Premium collected (USD)
24,582,875median: 176,313/cycle(n=86)
fan (6): min 12,455,012 · med 24,729,601 · max 33,990,638
0
fan (6): min 0 · med 0 · max 0
0
fan (6): min 0 · med 0 · max 0
14,007,366median: 155,882/cycle(n=86)
fan (6): min 10,214,812 · med 13,562,291 · max 16,378,112
24,814,084median: 229,337/cycle(n=86)
fan (6): min 17,977,664 · med 24,670,777 · max 29,158,876
0
fan (6): min 0 · med 0 · max 0
0
fan (6): min 0 · med 0 · max 0
28,872,734median: 301,414/cycle(n=86)
fan (6): min 21,782,414 · med 27,132,783 · max 38,070,106
107,697,176median: 597,750/cycle(n=86)
fan (6): min 66,439,112 · med 105,246,797 · max 150,182,119
73,187,312median: 491,200/cycle(n=86)
fan (6): min 48,556,982 · med 70,830,215 · max 94,104,951
65,173,383median: 438,749/cycle(n=86)
fan (6): min 43,248,668 · med 62,870,990 · max 84,078,341
47,671,030median: 396,778/cycle(n=86)
fan (6): min 36,166,607 · med 45,847,386 · max 63,965,840
35,340,816median: 331,465/cycle(n=86)
fan (6): min 27,561,663 · med 33,700,036 · max 49,831,594
32,003,644median: 270,331/cycle(n=86)
fan (6): min 24,877,098 · med 29,541,650 · max 40,776,891
20,741,086median: 178,676/cycle(n=86)
fan (6): min 15,172,962 · med 19,653,662 · max 25,640,369
96,318,861median: 568,287/cycle(n=86)
fan (6): min 68,441,376 · med 86,947,110 · max 137,087,613
129,853,167median: 654,116/cycle(n=86)
fan (6): min 92,130,409 · med 118,498,466 · max 198,643,785
108,577,785median: 564,125/cycle(n=86)
fan (6): min 67,270,402 · med 98,813,398 · max 159,986,583
Upside lost to assignments (USD)
Σ over assigned cycles of (spot at expiry − strike) × shares assigned: gains the CC capped away.
-27,262,864——-16,304,401-27,602,547——-31,208,462-108,400,497-75,545,500-67,332,183-50,110,830-37,667,222-34,145,234-23,421,922-95,759,583-127,106,548-104,399,882
Net (premium − upside lost) USD
Total CC premium collected minus upside lost to assignments. Positive = the CC overlay paid for itself; negative = assignments cost more than the premium earned.
-2,679,990——-2,297,035-2,788,463——-2,335,728-703,321-2,358,187-2,158,800-2,439,801-2,326,407-2,141,589-2,680,836+559,277+2,746,619+4,177,904
X3 P&L on assigned cycles (USD)
X3 sleeve P&L during the cycles where the CC was assigned — the rallies that capped the call usually lifted X3 too.
+0——+8,135,186+13,417,909——+36,488,554+121,006,320+85,243,810+75,989,888+57,387,303+43,668,879+54,221,781+44,455,430+245,870,891+323,811,996+610,998,139
Net + X3 offset on assigned (USD)
Net (premium − upside lost) plus the X3 sleeve's P&L during assigned cycles — credits X3 for cushioning the same rallies that capped the call.
-2,679,990——+5,838,151+10,629,446——+34,152,827+120,302,999+82,885,622+73,831,088+54,947,502+41,342,473+52,080,192+41,774,594+246,430,168+326,558,615+615,176,043
Median premium % of NAV/cycle4.18%
fan (6): min 4.04% · med 4.37% · max 4.72%
—
fan (6): min 0.00% · med 0.00% · max 0.00%
—
fan (6): min 0.00% · med 0.00% · max 0.00%
3.55%
fan (6): min 3.43% · med 3.72% · max 4.00%
3.55%
fan (6): min 3.43% · med 3.71% · max 4.01%
—
fan (6): min 0.00% · med 0.00% · max 0.00%
—
fan (6): min 0.00% · med 0.00% · max 0.00%
2.93%
fan (6): min 2.83% · med 3.06% · max 3.31%
2.93%
fan (6): min 2.83% · med 3.06% · max 3.31%
2.93%
fan (6): min 2.83% · med 3.06% · max 3.31%
2.93%
fan (6): min 2.83% · med 3.06% · max 3.31%
2.93%
fan (6): min 2.83% · med 3.06% · max 3.31%
2.93%
fan (6): min 2.83% · med 3.06% · max 3.31%
1.91%
fan (6): min 1.84% · med 1.99% · max 2.22%
1.20%
fan (6): min 1.14% · med 1.25% · max 1.45%
2.09%
fan (6): min 2.02% · med 2.19% · max 2.37%
2.09%
fan (6): min 2.02% · med 2.19% · max 2.37%
1.26%
fan (6): min 1.21% · med 1.31% · max 1.42%
# CC cycles86
fan (6): min 85 · med 86 · max 86
0
fan (6): min 0 · med 0 · max 0
0
fan (6): min 0 · med 0 · max 0
86
fan (6): min 85 · med 86 · max 86
86
fan (6): min 85 · med 86 · max 86
0
fan (6): min 0 · med 0 · max 0
0
fan (6): min 0 · med 0 · max 0
86
fan (6): min 85 · med 86 · max 86
86
fan (6): min 85 · med 86 · max 86
86
fan (6): min 85 · med 86 · max 86
86
fan (6): min 85 · med 86 · max 86
86
fan (6): min 85 · med 86 · max 86
86
fan (6): min 85 · med 86 · max 86
86
fan (6): min 85 · med 86 · max 86
86
fan (6): min 85 · med 86 · max 86
86
fan (6): min 85 · med 86 · max 86
86
fan (6): min 85 · med 86 · max 86
86
fan (6): min 85 · med 86 · max 86
# CC assigned38 (44.2%)
fan (6): min 33 · med 34 · max 40
0 (0.0%)
fan (6): min 0 · med 0 · max 0
0 (0.0%)
fan (6): min 0 · med 0 · max 0
38 (44.2%)
fan (6): min 33 · med 34 · max 40
38 (44.2%)
fan (6): min 33 · med 34 · max 40
0 (0.0%)
fan (6): min 0 · med 0 · max 0
0 (0.0%)
fan (6): min 0 · med 0 · max 0
38 (44.2%)
fan (6): min 33 · med 34 · max 40
38 (44.2%)
fan (6): min 33 · med 34 · max 40
38 (44.2%)
fan (6): min 33 · med 34 · max 40
38 (44.2%)
fan (6): min 33 · med 34 · max 40
38 (44.2%)
fan (6): min 33 · med 34 · max 40
38 (44.2%)
fan (6): min 33 · med 34 · max 40
28 (32.6%)
fan (6): min 23 · med 28 · max 29
21 (24.4%)
fan (6): min 20 · med 22 · max 23
38 (44.2%)
fan (6): min 33 · med 34 · max 40
38 (44.2%)
fan (6): min 33 · med 34 · max 40
38 (44.2%)
fan (6): min 33 · med 34 · max 40
# X3 entries / exits0 / 0144 / 144144 / 144144 / 144144 / 144144 / 144144 / 144144 / 144144 / 144144 / 144144 / 144144 / 144144 / 144144 / 144144 / 144144 / 144144 / 144144 / 144
Avg X3 cycle win / loss+0.0% / +0.0%+55.4% / -15.5%+55.4% / -15.5%+55.4% / -15.5%+55.4% / -15.5%+55.4% / -15.5%+55.4% / -15.5%+55.4% / -15.5%+55.4% / -15.5%+55.4% / -15.5%+55.4% / -15.5%+55.4% / -15.5%+55.4% / -15.5%+55.4% / -15.5%+55.4% / -15.5%+55.4% / -15.5%+55.4% / -15.5%+55.4% / -15.5%
Schablonskatt (USD)371,997557,378343,149219,694424,2951,086,087729,165592,8552,485,8901,650,6721,468,7551,038,579747,8081,030,6721,005,9873,141,3484,304,4676,106,600

Robustness across timing variants

Dispersion across 6 timing variants (anchor × X3-timing) per strategy. Tight spread (✓ robust) means the headline numbers don't depend on the timing knob choice. Wide spread (⚠ luck-sensitive) means the backtest's headline is partly luck — judge that strategy by the median of the family, not the highlighted variant.
StrategyMetricMinMedianMaxSpread (max − min)
stock_only_collar_w3kusdCAGR %+50.5%+71.0%+76.8%+26.3% ⚠ luck-sensitive
Max DD %-22.5%-21.4%-20.7%+1.8% ✓ robust
Increased NAV (USD)+9,339,420+24,279,871+31,524,577+22,185,157
Total premium (USD)+12,455,012+24,729,601+33,990,638+21,535,626
Sharpe1.882.322.500.62 ⚠ luck-sensitive
Net put P&L (USD)-11,179,139-9,687,703-5,907,111+5,272,027
85_15CAGR %+63.5%+66.1%+69.8%+6.3% ⚠ luck-sensitive
Max DD %-75.1%-73.9%-73.1%+2.0% ✓ robust
Increased NAV (USD)+17,347,067+19,402,645+23,020,419+5,673,351
Total premium (USD)+0+0+0+0
Sharpe1.001.021.040.05 ✓ robust
Net put P&L (USD)+0+0+0+0
85_15_put15CAGR %+50.9%+54.9%+60.9%+10.0% ⚠ luck-sensitive
Max DD %-73.2%-70.5%-67.3%+5.9% ⚠ luck-sensitive
Increased NAV (USD)+9,381,836+11,485,843+15,159,075+5,777,239
Total premium (USD)+0+0+0+0
Sharpe0.910.951.000.09 ✓ robust
Net put P&L (USD)-4,747,001-4,338,625-3,788,574+958,426
85_15_cc05CAGR %+41.3%+46.4%+51.7%+10.4% ⚠ luck-sensitive
Max DD %-69.3%-64.0%-61.0%+8.3% ⚠ luck-sensitive
Increased NAV (USD)+5,638,179+7,451,798+9,830,684+4,192,504
Total premium (USD)+10,214,812+13,562,291+16,378,112+6,163,300
Sharpe0.850.930.990.13
Net put P&L (USD)+0+0+0+0
85_15_cc05_put15CAGR %+57.5%+67.5%+70.1%+12.6% ⚠ luck-sensitive
Max DD %-49.7%-45.9%-41.0%+8.7% ⚠ luck-sensitive
Increased NAV (USD)+13,125,407+20,859,151+23,224,085+10,098,677
Total premium (USD)+17,977,664+24,670,777+29,158,876+11,181,212
Sharpe1.211.341.370.16
Net put P&L (USD)-5,200,483-4,309,565-3,931,333+1,269,150
70_30CAGR %+76.5%+82.1%+88.7%+12.2% ⚠ luck-sensitive
Max DD %-76.6%-74.6%-73.2%+3.5%
Increased NAV (USD)+30,655,287+38,412,276+50,186,335+19,531,048
Total premium (USD)+0+0+0+0
Sharpe1.071.101.140.08 ✓ robust
Net put P&L (USD)+0+0+0+0
70_30_put15CAGR %+65.0%+70.8%+79.2%+14.1% ⚠ luck-sensitive
Max DD %-75.2%-71.6%-69.3%+5.9% ⚠ luck-sensitive
Increased NAV (USD)+18,541,617+23,835,691+33,943,487+15,401,871
Total premium (USD)+0+0+0+0
Sharpe0.991.041.100.10
Net put P&L (USD)-7,852,108-6,688,058-5,206,455+2,645,654
70_30_cc05CAGR %+63.5%+68.0%+77.9%+14.3% ⚠ luck-sensitive
Max DD %-70.9%-67.3%-63.6%+7.3% ⚠ luck-sensitive
Increased NAV (USD)+17,359,493+21,339,690+32,601,606+15,242,113
Total premium (USD)+21,782,414+27,132,783+38,070,106+16,287,692
Sharpe1.031.081.150.12
Net put P&L (USD)+0+0+0+0
70_30_cc05_put05CAGR %+99.4%+117.1%+127.6%+28.2% ⚠ luck-sensitive
Max DD %-43.7%-41.9%-40.7%+3.0%
Increased NAV (USD)+76,027,439+141,775,730+199,505,227+123,477,788
Total premium (USD)+66,439,112+105,246,797+150,182,119+83,743,006
Sharpe1.521.661.700.19
Net put P&L (USD)-59,529,203-40,883,296-31,389,125+28,140,078
70_30_cc05_put10CAGR %+88.0%+101.6%+109.6%+21.6% ⚠ luck-sensitive
Max DD %-51.3%-46.3%-44.2%+7.1% ⚠ luck-sensitive
Increased NAV (USD)+49,206,756+82,228,654+108,986,479+59,779,723
Total premium (USD)+48,556,982+70,830,215+94,104,951+45,547,969
Sharpe1.361.471.510.15
Net put P&L (USD)-24,084,871-19,889,392-16,053,677+8,031,194
70_30_cc05_put10_w3kusdCAGR %+85.0%+98.3%+106.4%+21.4% ⚠ luck-sensitive
Max DD %-51.6%-47.8%-45.6%+5.9% ⚠ luck-sensitive
Increased NAV (USD)+43,634,287+72,761,484+97,285,980+53,651,693
Total premium (USD)+43,248,668+62,870,990+84,078,341+40,829,673
Sharpe1.331.441.490.16
Net put P&L (USD)-21,530,103-17,649,569-14,247,269+7,282,834
70_30_cc05_put15CAGR %+78.8%+87.4%+95.3%+16.5% ⚠ luck-sensitive
Max DD %-58.2%-53.5%-49.8%+8.4% ⚠ luck-sensitive
Increased NAV (USD)+33,898,020+47,929,993+65,108,234+31,210,214
Total premium (USD)+36,166,607+45,847,386+63,965,840+27,799,232
Sharpe1.241.311.350.12
Net put P&L (USD)-11,284,357-7,816,664-6,731,323+4,553,034
70_30_cc05_put20CAGR %+70.5%+77.6%+86.8%+16.4% ⚠ luck-sensitive
Max DD %-64.1%-59.5%-56.6%+7.5% ⚠ luck-sensitive
Increased NAV (USD)+23,735,910+32,140,548+46,963,678+23,227,768
Total premium (USD)+27,561,663+33,700,036+49,831,594+22,269,931
Sharpe1.131.201.260.13
Net put P&L (USD)-5,853,613-4,082,718-3,370,975+2,482,638
70_30_cc10_put15CAGR %+78.3%+83.7%+91.6%+13.3% ⚠ luck-sensitive
Max DD %-63.3%-58.4%-54.9%+8.4% ⚠ luck-sensitive
Increased NAV (USD)+33,149,721+41,550,936+56,560,292+23,410,571
Total premium (USD)+24,877,098+29,541,650+40,776,891+15,899,793
Sharpe1.201.251.300.09 ✓ robust
Net put P&L (USD)-10,348,662-7,822,500-6,256,407+4,092,255
70_30_cc15_put15CAGR %+75.5%+82.1%+87.3%+11.8% ⚠ luck-sensitive
Max DD %-66.9%-62.5%-58.2%+8.6% ⚠ luck-sensitive
Increased NAV (USD)+29,591,819+38,770,003+47,780,396+18,188,577
Total premium (USD)+15,172,962+19,653,662+25,640,369+10,467,407
Sharpe1.141.221.240.10
Net put P&L (USD)-9,451,984-7,689,965-5,427,254+4,024,730
50_50_cc05_put10_w3kusdCAGR %+103.1%+114.0%+127.6%+24.5% ⚠ luck-sensitive
Max DD %-64.1%-60.2%-56.0%+8.0% ⚠ luck-sensitive
Increased NAV (USD)+86,448,058+127,117,869+199,480,852+113,032,794
Total premium (USD)+68,441,376+86,947,110+137,087,613+68,646,237
Sharpe1.261.321.380.12
Net put P&L (USD)-32,614,825-26,138,995-16,942,257+15,672,569
50_50_cc05_put05_w3kusdCAGR %+115.5%+126.6%+142.0%+26.5% ⚠ luck-sensitive
Max DD %-59.1%-56.5%-54.2%+4.9%
Increased NAV (USD)+133,721,822+193,510,307+313,255,763+179,533,941
Total premium (USD)+92,130,409+118,498,466+198,643,785+106,513,375
Sharpe1.351.401.470.13
Net put P&L (USD)-73,309,620-45,419,371-29,307,529+44,002,091
30_70_cc05_put05_w3kusdCAGR %+116.2%+129.5%+145.3%+29.1% ⚠ luck-sensitive
Max DD %-71.7%-68.3%-65.0%+6.6% ⚠ luck-sensitive
Increased NAV (USD)+136,391,743+212,164,802+343,689,612+207,297,869
Total premium (USD)+67,270,402+98,813,398+159,986,583+92,716,181
Sharpe1.241.301.360.12
Net put P&L (USD)-54,600,732-39,638,344-18,984,408+35,616,324

Strategy response to TSLA cycle moves (per-cycle returns by TSLA-bucket, SPEC §6.3 + §6.4)

Per CC cycle, bucketed by TSLA's window return. X3 sleeve columns isolate X3 behavior (identical across strategies sharing schedule + sleeve weight). Per-strategy columns show median % / mean % of total cycle return for cycles in that bucket.

TSLA bucketSample countAvg TSLA return %X3 sleeve return % (med / mean)stock_only_collar_w3kusd85_1585_15_put1585_15_cc0585_15_cc05_put1570_3070_30_put1570_30_cc0570_30_cc05_put0570_30_cc05_put1070_30_cc05_put10_w3kusd70_30_cc05_put1570_30_cc05_put2070_30_cc10_put1570_30_cc15_put1550_50_cc05_put10_w3kusd50_50_cc05_put05_w3kusd30_70_cc05_put05_w3kusd
-37.5% to -32.5%1-32.6%-22.5% / -22.5%
fan (4): min -22.5% · med -20.9% · max -5.2%
+1.2% / +1.2%
fan (4): min -3.4% · med -0.9% · max +3.6%
-31.1% / -31.1%
fan (4): min -34.5% · med -31.8% · max -30.7%
-17.6% / -17.6%
fan (4): min -18.7% · med -17.5% · max -14.4%
-27.7% / -27.7%
fan (4): min -31.5% · med -28.6% · max -27.7%
-12.2% / -12.2%
fan (4): min -13.2% · med -12.5% · max -9.3%
-29.6% / -29.6%
fan (4): min -31.8% · med -30.1% · max -26.2%
-18.4% / -18.4%
fan (4): min -19.3% · med -16.8% · max -15.1%
-26.8% / -26.8%
fan (4): min -29.3% · med -27.4% · max -24.0%
-5.8% / -5.8%
fan (4): min -8.6% · med -4.8% · max -3.2%
-9.9% / -9.9%
fan (4): min -12.8% · med -8.7% · max -7.1%
-9.9% / -9.9%
fan (4): min -12.8% · med -8.7% · max -7.2%
-13.9% / -13.9%
fan (4): min -14.8% · med -12.7% · max -11.0%
-18.0% / -18.0%
fan (4): min -18.9% · med -16.5% · max -13.4%
-15.1% / -15.1%
fan (4): min -16.0% · med -13.8% · max -12.3%
-16.0% / -16.0%
fan (4): min -16.5% · med -14.6% · max -13.0%
-13.5% / -13.5%
fan (4): min -15.5% · med -12.0% · max -6.9%
-10.6% / -10.6%
fan (4): min -12.6% · med -9.2% · max -4.2%
-15.4% / -15.4%
fan (4): min -16.5% · med -13.9% · max -4.6%
-32.5% to -27.5%1-27.6%-18.9% / -18.9%
fan (6): min -20.0% · med -19.3% · max +3.8%
-0.9% / -0.9%
fan (6): min -6.1% · med -3.6% · max -0.9%
-26.3% / -26.3%
fan (6): min -29.0% · med -28.5% · max -23.4%
-16.0% / -16.0%
fan (6): min -19.4% · med -17.1% · max -16.0%
-23.7% / -23.7%
fan (6): min -26.7% · med -26.0% · max -20.4%
-12.3% / -12.3%
fan (6): min -15.9% · med -13.0% · max -10.6%
-25.0% / -25.0%
fan (6): min -27.3% · med -26.9% · max -18.6%
-16.5% / -16.5%
fan (6): min -19.5% · med -17.6% · max -13.3%
-22.8% / -22.8%
fan (6): min -25.5% · med -24.8% · max -16.1%
-6.3% / -6.3%
fan (6): min -9.3% · med -7.1% · max -2.9%
-9.9% / -9.9%
fan (6): min -13.0% · med -10.6% · max -5.3%
-9.9% / -9.9%
fan (6): min -13.0% · med -10.6% · max -5.5%
-13.5% / -13.5%
fan (6): min -16.6% · med -14.1% · max -8.0%
-17.1% / -17.1%
fan (6): min -20.2% · med -17.8% · max -10.4%
-14.5% / -14.5%
fan (6): min -17.4% · med -15.0% · max -10.3%
-15.0% / -15.0%
fan (6): min -18.0% · med -15.6% · max -11.4%
-12.4% / -12.4%
fan (6): min -15.0% · med -13.1% · max -2.8%
-9.9% / -9.9%
fan (6): min -12.4% · med -10.6% · max -1.1%
-13.5% / -13.5%
fan (6): min -15.4% · med -14.1% · max +0.8%
-27.5% to -22.5%2-24.6%+1.9% / +1.9%
fan (6): min -25.0% · med -10.8% · max +1.9%
-1.8% / -1.8%
fan (6): min -9.3% · med -1.3% · max +5.1%
-20.6% / -20.6%
fan (6): min -26.1% · med -23.4% · max -20.6%
-14.5% / -14.5%
fan (6): min -23.5% · med -15.0% · max -11.8%
-17.2% / -17.2%
fan (6): min -23.6% · med -20.7% · max -17.2%
-8.7% / -8.7%
fan (6): min -18.7% · med -10.2% · max -8.2%
-16.7% / -16.7%
fan (6): min -25.7% · med -21.2% · max -16.7%
-11.6% / -11.6%
fan (6): min -21.8% · med -15.3% · max -9.7%
-13.8% / -13.8%
fan (6): min -22.8% · med -18.9% · max -13.8%
-0.6% / -0.6%
fan (6): min -10.5% · med -4.3% · max +0.2%
-3.0% / -3.0%
fan (6): min -13.5% · med -7.8% · max -3.0%
-3.2% / -3.2%
fan (6): min -13.5% · med -8.1% · max -3.2%
-6.8% / -6.8%
fan (6): min -18.0% · med -11.1% · max -6.8%
-10.5% / -10.5%
fan (6): min -18.7% · med -14.9% · max -10.5%
-8.6% / -8.6%
fan (6): min -18.7% · med -12.0% · max -7.7%
-9.2% / -9.2%
fan (6): min -19.4% · med -12.9% · max -8.4%
-1.7% / -1.7%
fan (6): min -13.5% · med -10.5% · max -1.7%
+0.1% / +0.1%
fan (6): min -11.4% · med -8.1% · max +0.1%
+0.8% / +0.8%
fan (6): min -16.0% · med -9.7% · max +0.8%
-22.5% to -17.5%4-20.7%-19.6% / -19.9%
fan (6): min -19.6% · med -8.4% · max +8.3%
-1.6% / -1.5%
fan (6): min -1.6% · med -1.4% · max -0.1%
-20.7% / -20.6%
fan (6): min -20.7% · med -18.7% · max -15.7%
-16.8% / -16.9%
fan (6): min -18.1% · med -16.2% · max -13.4%
-17.4% / -17.6%
fan (6): min -17.4% · med -15.8% · max -12.8%
-12.4% / -12.3%
fan (6): min -13.1% · med -11.7% · max -9.5%
-20.3% / -20.5%
fan (6): min -20.3% · med -15.7% · max -11.5%
-17.2% / -17.4%
fan (6): min -17.2% · med -14.9% · max -9.6%
-17.8% / -18.0%
fan (6): min -17.8% · med -13.4% · max -9.1%
-7.0% / -6.9%
fan (6): min -7.0% · med -4.1% · max +1.5%
-10.2% / -10.3%
fan (6): min -10.2% · med -7.0% · max -2.0%
-10.2% / -10.5%
fan (6): min -10.2% · med -7.1% · max -2.0%
-13.7% / -13.7%
fan (6): min -13.7% · med -10.6% · max -6.3%
-17.0% / -17.2%
fan (6): min -17.0% · med -13.0% · max -8.8%
-14.6% / -14.7%
fan (6): min -14.6% · med -11.6% · max -7.3%
-15.5% / -15.5%
fan (6): min -15.5% · med -12.5% · max -7.9%
-12.9% / -13.3%
fan (6): min -12.9% · med -6.6% · max +0.9%
-10.6% / -10.9%
fan (6): min -10.6% · med -4.5% · max +3.5%
-14.2% / -14.7%
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-15.3% / -15.2%
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-15.7% / -16.0%
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-10.9% / -11.5%
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-10.8% / -10.8%
fan (6): min -12.9% · med -10.9% · max -9.6%
-15.6% / -15.6%
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-15.8% / -16.3%
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-5.5% / -5.7%
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-8.9% / -9.0%
fan (6): min -11.4% · med -8.5% · max -6.6%
-9.0% / -9.2%
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-11.8% / -12.0%
fan (6): min -13.4% · med -11.7% · max -9.2%
-12.5% / -12.6%
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-12.6% / -12.9%
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-8.5% / -9.3%
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-8.7% / -8.5%
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fan (6): min +16.1% · med +25.3% · max +31.5%
+31.5% / +31.5%
fan (6): min +16.1% · med +25.3% · max +31.5%
+33.8% / +33.8%
fan (6): min +18.1% · med +27.7% · max +33.8%
+36.0% / +36.0%
fan (6): min +20.4% · med +29.9% · max +36.0%
+44.6% / +44.6%
fan (6): min +19.7% · med +34.6% · max +44.6%
+44.4% / +44.4%
fan (6): min +19.7% · med +34.1% · max +44.4%
+58.3% / +58.3%
fan (6): min +23.3% · med +44.4% · max +58.3%
+37.5% to +42.5%1+41.0%+94.5% / +94.5%
fan (6): min +94.5% · med +120.8% · max +126.3%
+13.6% / +13.6%
fan (6): min +8.5% · med +10.7% · max +14.7%
+49.0% / +49.0%
fan (6): min +49.0% · med +51.1% · max +53.4%
+40.4% / +40.4%
fan (6): min +40.4% · med +49.5% · max +52.0%
+29.6% / +29.6%
fan (6): min +26.4% · med +28.0% · max +29.6%
+29.5% / +29.5%
fan (6): min +26.4% · med +27.9% · max +29.5%
+57.0% / +57.0%
fan (6): min +57.0% · med +63.5% · max +66.2%
+49.9% / +49.9%
fan (6): min +49.9% · med +62.2% · max +65.1%
+41.0% / +41.0%
fan (6): min +41.0% · med +43.1% · max +45.1%
+38.3% / +38.3%
fan (6): min +38.3% · med +42.7% · max +45.0%
+40.8% / +40.8%
fan (6): min +40.8% · med +43.1% · max +45.0%
+40.5% / +40.5%
fan (6): min +40.5% · med +43.1% · max +44.9%
+41.0% / +41.0%
fan (6): min +41.0% · med +43.1% · max +45.0%
+41.0% / +41.0%
fan (6): min +41.0% · med +43.1% · max +45.0%
+42.8% / +42.8%
fan (6): min +42.8% · med +45.7% · max +47.7%
+43.6% / +43.6%
fan (6): min +43.6% · med +48.0% · max +50.2%
+55.9% / +55.9%
fan (6): min +55.9% · med +65.3% · max +68.1%
+54.1% / +54.1%
fan (6): min +54.1% · med +65.0% · max +68.2%
+70.2% / +70.2%
fan (6): min +70.2% · med +87.3% · max +91.4%
+42.5% to +47.5%2+44.1%+188.8% / +188.8%
fan (6): min +94.5% · med +143.5% · max +261.5%
+9.8% / +9.8%
fan (6): min +4.0% · med +12.2% · max +16.6%
+65.8% / +65.8%
fan (6): min +52.0% · med +59.7% · max +76.9%
+62.1% / +62.1%
fan (6): min +43.2% · med +56.7% · max +73.4%
+38.4% / +38.4%
fan (6): min +30.7% · med +33.2% · max +46.4%
+38.4% / +38.4%
fan (6): min +30.6% · med +33.2% · max +45.7%
+87.5% / +87.5%
fan (6): min +59.5% · med +74.5% · max +109.5%
+84.4% / +84.4%
fan (6): min +52.2% · med +72.0% · max +106.6%
+64.9% / +64.9%
fan (6): min +41.9% · med +52.6% · max +84.3%
+63.6% / +63.6%
fan (6): min +39.6% · med +52.6% · max +81.3%
+64.5% / +64.5%
fan (6): min +41.7% · med +52.6% · max +82.9%
+64.5% / +64.5%
fan (6): min +41.3% · med +52.5% · max +82.8%
+65.0% / +65.0%
fan (6): min +41.9% · med +52.6% · max +83.7%
+64.9% / +64.9%
fan (6): min +41.9% · med +52.7% · max +84.3%
+66.3% / +66.3%
fan (6): min +43.3% · med +54.5% · max +85.4%
+68.3% / +68.3%
fan (6): min +44.4% · med +56.5% · max +87.7%
+100.0% / +100.0%
fan (6): min +56.5% · med +78.5% · max +133.9%
+99.3% / +99.3%
fan (6): min +55.0% · med +78.5% · max +132.7%
+135.1% / +135.1%
fan (6): min +70.7% · med +104.5% · max +184.2%
+47.5% to +52.5%3+50.4%+152.7% / +151.6%
fan (4): min +87.9% · med +140.2% · max +180.8%
+13.5% / +13.5%
fan (4): min +7.3% · med +11.5% · max +15.7%
+64.6% / +65.6%
fan (4): min +54.8% · med +63.9% · max +68.0%
+60.5% / +62.8%
fan (4): min +49.9% · med +59.7% · max +65.5%
+36.4% / +34.6%
fan (4): min +24.1% · med +33.0% · max +36.6%
+36.4% / +34.5%
fan (4): min +24.1% · med +33.0% · max +36.6%
+80.2% / +80.7%
fan (4): min +60.7% · med +77.4% · max +87.9%
+76.8% / +78.4%
fan (4): min +56.6% · med +73.9% · max +85.8%
+56.8% / +55.2%
fan (4): min +35.4% · med +51.9% · max +60.2%
+56.9% / +55.2%
fan (4): min +33.2% · med +50.3% · max +58.2%
+56.8% / +55.2%
fan (4): min +34.6% · med +51.9% · max +59.5%
+56.6% / +54.8%
fan (4): min +34.4% · med +51.7% · max +59.5%
+56.9% / +55.2%
fan (4): min +35.4% · med +51.9% · max +60.1%
+56.8% / +55.2%
fan (4): min +35.4% · med +51.9% · max +60.1%
+59.0% / +57.0%
fan (4): min +36.8% · med +53.9% · max +61.5%
+60.8% / +59.0%
fan (4): min +37.8% · med +56.1% · max +63.9%
+84.1% / +82.4%
fan (4): min +49.6% · med +77.0% · max +94.1%
+84.1% / +82.4%
fan (4): min +48.7% · med +75.8% · max +93.2%
+111.5% / +109.9%
fan (4): min +64.3% · med +101.5% · max +128.3%
+52.5% to +57.5%1+54.7%+150.5% / +150.5%
fan (3): min +82.4% · med +150.5% · max +150.5%
+14.7% / +14.7%
fan (3): min +11.8% · med +12.1% · max +14.7%
+69.1% / +69.1%
fan (3): min +60.2% · med +68.0% · max +69.1%
+66.7% / +66.7%
fan (3): min +58.8% · med +64.9% · max +66.7%
+35.2% / +35.2%
fan (3): min +22.6% · med +34.9% · max +35.2%
+35.3% / +35.3%
fan (3): min +22.5% · med +34.9% · max +35.3%
+83.4% / +83.4%
fan (3): min +64.1% · med +82.5% · max +83.4%
+81.5% / +81.5%
fan (3): min +62.9% · med +80.0% · max +81.5%
+55.5% / +55.5%
fan (3): min +33.0% · med +55.2% · max +55.5%
+55.5% / +55.5%
fan (3): min +33.0% · med +55.2% · max +55.5%
+55.6% / +55.6%
fan (3): min +33.0% · med +55.3% · max +55.6%
+55.4% / +55.4%
fan (3): min +33.0% · med +55.1% · max +55.4%
+55.6% / +55.6%
fan (3): min +33.0% · med +55.2% · max +55.6%
+55.6% / +55.6%
fan (3): min +33.0% · med +55.2% · max +55.6%
+57.3% / +57.3%
fan (3): min +35.2% · med +57.3% · max +57.5%
+59.4% / +59.4%
fan (3): min +37.2% · med +59.0% · max +59.4%
+82.6% / +82.6%
fan (3): min +47.1% · med +82.3% · max +82.6%
+82.6% / +82.6%
fan (3): min +47.1% · med +82.3% · max +82.6%
+109.8% / +109.8%
fan (3): min +61.2% · med +109.6% · max +109.8%
Overall88+1703.2%+37714.0%+4854.4%+3881.3%+2130.4%+1688.5%+4013.0%+7702.2%+4753.6%+4774.1%+28194.5%+16077.2%+14326.2%+9565.7%+6505.1%+9235.2%+8564.1%+27147.0%+41510.4%+47926.0%

Premium yield per cycle (SPEC §6.8)

For each CC cycle: premium received ÷ value of the stock being covered (n_contracts × 100 × spot_at_sale) × 100. Strike-comparable yield, scale-invariant — depends only on strike distance, DTE and IV, not on portfolio size or year. With a monthly schedule this is a per-month yield; multiply by 12 for a rough annualized read (ignores compounding and assignment losses). The bottom row shows realized cashflow extremes in USD (in target_cashflow mode integer-contract rounding can push a single cycle past the cited target on high-IV days). Histograms below the table show the per-cycle USD distribution for each strategy side-by-side.

Statstock_only_collar_w3kusd
full coverage
85_15
full coverage
85_15_put15
full coverage
85_15_cc05
full coverage
85_15_cc05_put15
full coverage
70_30
full coverage
70_30_put15
full coverage
70_30_cc05
full coverage
70_30_cc05_put05
full coverage
70_30_cc05_put10
full coverage
70_30_cc05_put10_w3kusd
full coverage
70_30_cc05_put15
full coverage
70_30_cc05_put20
full coverage
70_30_cc10_put15
full coverage
70_30_cc15_put15
full coverage
50_50_cc05_put10_w3kusd
full coverage
50_50_cc05_put05_w3kusd
full coverage
30_70_cc05_put05_w3kusd
full coverage
Median %4.19——4.194.19——4.194.194.194.194.194.192.731.714.194.194.19
Mean %4.64——4.644.64——4.644.644.644.644.644.643.172.144.644.644.64
p25 / p75 %3.52 / 5.66——3.52 / 5.663.52 / 5.66——3.52 / 5.663.52 / 5.663.52 / 5.663.52 / 5.663.52 / 5.663.52 / 5.662.15 / 3.891.17 / 2.543.52 / 5.663.52 / 5.663.52 / 5.66
Min / Max %1.62 / 9.24——1.62 / 9.241.62 / 9.24——1.62 / 9.241.62 / 9.241.62 / 9.241.62 / 9.241.62 / 9.241.62 / 9.240.75 / 7.720.33 / 6.661.62 / 9.241.62 / 9.241.62 / 9.24
Min / Max premium USD9,710 / 1,176,411——6,260 / 561,6696,793 / 1,119,827——4,695 / 1,337,4745,620 / 5,528,9275,371 / 3,787,7544,979 / 3,366,5025,050 / 2,359,0094,766 / 1,685,0062,301 / 1,945,177978 / 1,454,9052,916 / 5,300,7493,059 / 7,101,6001,458 / 6,227,503
Net premium after put cost USD+229,401—-8,145,931—+15,700,215—-12,840,882—+2,073,714+28,842,900+25,685,298+30,626,489+27,900,846+15,236,059+4,344,360+38,344,536+2,719,259+2,235,128
# CC cycles86008686008686868686868686868686
CC premium per cycle (full period — does not respond to the period selector).
premium histogram for stock_only_collar_w3kusd
85_15
no CC cycles
85_15_put15
no CC cycles
premium histogram for 85_15_cc05
premium histogram for 85_15_cc05_put15
70_30
no CC cycles
70_30_put15
no CC cycles
premium histogram for 70_30_cc05
premium histogram for 70_30_cc05_put05
premium histogram for 70_30_cc05_put10
premium histogram for 70_30_cc05_put10_w3kusd
premium histogram for 70_30_cc05_put15
premium histogram for 70_30_cc05_put20
premium histogram for 70_30_cc10_put15
premium histogram for 70_30_cc15_put15
premium histogram for 50_50_cc05_put10_w3kusd
premium histogram for 50_50_cc05_put05_w3kusd
premium histogram for 30_70_cc05_put05_w3kusd

Equity curves

Log-scale USD NAV. Green shading marks days TSLA closed above its 10-day MA — the X3 sleeve is leveraged during these regimes.

·Resolution:
Equity curves — log-scale USD NAV (post-tax)$1,000,000$10,000,000$100,000,0002020202120222023202420252026NAV USD (log)30_70_cc05_put05_w3kusd50_50_cc05_put05_w3kusd70_30_cc05_put0550_50_cc05_put10_w3kusd70_30_cc05_put1070_30_cc05_put10_w3kusd70_30_cc05_put1570_30_cc10_put1570_30_cc15_put1570_3070_30_cc05_put20stock_only_collar_w3kusd70_30_cc0570_30_put1585_15_cc05_put1585_1585_15_put1585_15_cc05

Regime behavior (SPEC §6.10)

Aggregates each strategy's annualized return across all windows of the same regime tag (see config/periods.yaml). Each (strategy × period) is its own fresh-start backtest from $500k. Cell format: median CAGR % / mean CAGR % across the n windows in that tag.

Regime tagstock_only_collar_w3kusd85_1585_15_put1585_15_cc0585_15_cc05_put1570_3070_30_put1570_30_cc0570_30_cc05_put0570_30_cc05_put1070_30_cc05_put10_w3kusd70_30_cc05_put1570_30_cc05_put2070_30_cc10_put1570_30_cc15_put1550_50_cc05_put10_w3kusd50_50_cc05_put05_w3kusd30_70_cc05_put05_w3kusd
Full real-options window (n=1)+68.0% / +68.0%+69.7% / +69.7%+58.6% / +58.6%+45.9% / +45.9%+66.6% / +66.6%+90.0% / +90.0%+79.7% / +79.7%+72.4% / +72.4%+125.8% / +125.8%+109.9% / +109.9%+106.0% / +106.0%+92.4% / +92.4%+81.0% / +81.0%+92.1% / +92.1%+91.0% / +91.0%+130.9% / +130.9%+144.2% / +144.2%+155.3% / +155.3%
Flat (sideways with structure) (n=2)+49.1% / +49.1%+13.8% / +13.8%+14.4% / +14.4%+14.4% / +14.4%+38.5% / +38.5%+27.2% / +27.2%+27.9% / +27.9%+30.1% / +30.1%+83.6% / +83.6%+68.4% / +68.4%+61.6% / +61.6%+51.8% / +51.8%+40.1% / +40.1%+49.0% / +49.0%+44.4% / +44.4%+71.1% / +71.1%+82.1% / +82.1%+80.3% / +80.3%
Round-trip up (peak in middle, ends near start) (n=2)+45.7% / +45.7%+10.9% / +10.9%+6.1% / +6.1%+15.3% / +15.3%+28.3% / +28.3%+20.2% / +20.2%+16.7% / +16.7%+26.6% / +26.6%+70.2% / +70.2%+53.9% / +53.9%+47.3% / +47.3%+38.7% / +38.7%+28.8% / +28.8%+35.7% / +35.7%+32.2% / +32.2%+55.6% / +55.6%+67.4% / +67.4%+67.3% / +67.3%
Round-trip down / V-shape (trough in middle, ends near start) (n=3)+52.6% / +53.5%+13.1% / +17.0%+6.0% / +22.5%+23.2% / +21.3%+37.5% / +44.6%+16.0% / +32.7%+10.0% / +39.0%+29.9% / +38.1%+60.5% / +92.6%+43.6% / +75.0%+35.4% / +64.5%+37.4% / +60.5%+31.8% / +48.0%+36.2% / +59.7%+30.9% / +56.0%+31.0% / +84.0%+40.4% / +97.1%+27.1% / +107.2%
Up strong (>+60% sustained rally) (n=2)+88.3% / +88.3%+151.1% / +151.1%+121.8% / +121.8%+97.0% / +97.0%+113.7% / +113.7%+188.3% / +188.3%+159.8% / +159.8%+143.2% / +143.2%+187.6% / +187.6%+174.7% / +174.7%+170.5% / +170.5%+159.5% / +159.5%+148.4% / +148.4%+162.4% / +162.4%+164.9% / +164.9%+228.4% / +228.4%+240.2% / +240.2%+286.0% / +286.0%
Down strong (<-35% sustained drop) (n=2)+19.7% / +19.7%-40.1% / -40.1%-29.9% / -29.9%-35.1% / -35.1%-9.3% / -9.3%-28.8% / -28.8%-19.5% / -19.5%-23.7% / -23.7%+36.6% / +36.6%+17.7% / +17.7%+9.9% / +9.9%-0.1% / -0.1%-11.5% / -11.5%-4.5% / -4.5%-8.2% / -8.2%+19.1% / +19.1%+32.0% / +32.0%+33.7% / +33.7%
Ends higher (+20% to +60%) (n=5)+62.5% / +54.5%+35.7% / +45.4%+29.1% / +43.5%+32.7% / +31.8%+45.3% / +52.3%+34.9% / +56.7%+26.6% / +56.4%+31.4% / +46.8%+57.6% / +91.2%+48.5% / +79.1%+41.6% / +69.7%+40.1% / +66.7%+35.2% / +56.4%+43.4% / +67.8%+41.5% / +67.8%+41.0% / +87.8%+45.7% / +98.5%+38.4% / +111.7%
Ends lower (-10% to -35%) (n=2)+41.5% / +41.5%-9.9% / -9.9%-8.5% / -8.5%+1.3% / +1.3%+19.0% / +19.0%-1.1% / -1.1%-0.0% / -0.0%+9.1% / +9.1%+55.7% / +55.7%+38.7% / +38.7%+28.9% / +28.9%+25.0% / +25.0%+15.6% / +15.6%+22.3% / +22.3%+17.3% / +17.3%+30.1% / +30.1%+42.2% / +42.2%+36.1% / +36.1%
Multi-oscillation (≥4 sign flips, ends near start) (n=1)+55.3% / +55.3%+6.5% / +6.5%+7.0% / +7.0%+12.6% / +12.6%+28.9% / +28.9%+6.9% / +6.9%+7.1% / +7.1%+12.4% / +12.4%+45.5% / +45.5%+32.7% / +32.7%+23.7% / +23.7%+25.2% / +25.2%+19.4% / +19.4%+26.0% / +26.0%+24.3% / +24.3%+14.5% / +14.5%+22.4% / +22.4%+7.7% / +7.7%
Really bad x3 periods (x3 peak-DD ≥85%, asymmetric to stock) (n=4)+36.7% / +35.8%-8.4% / -1.7%-7.4% / -3.2%+3.7% / +1.1%+17.6% / +16.2%-2.5% / +0.7%-1.5% / -0.4%+3.9% / +4.2%+32.4% / +39.1%+23.9% / +26.7%+14.3% / +16.8%+16.3% / +16.6%+10.5% / +9.8%+15.9% / +15.3%+12.3% / +12.5%+5.0% / +11.1%+11.3% / +19.6%+0.1% / +7.7%