Filters

Period:
← All reports
Strategies
Timing
Note: close_open and open_open price trade events at exec_spot while NAV is marked at the day's close, so day 1 of any backtest carries a small lookahead bias (~1% on the initial cash-to-stock rebalance) that compounds proportionally through the run — even for stockonly with no X3 or CC, since the very first rebalance buys shares at exec_spot. Subsequent days are unaffected (same shares, close-to-close moves). Treat the spread between variants as the robustness signal, not absolute numbers under non-close_close modes.
Robustness

Sleeve weight — stock vs 85/15 vs 70/30 vs 0/100

Compares the stock-only baseline against 85/15, 70/30, and 0/100 (all-X3, MA10-gated) — no CC overlay. Isolates the impact of the sleeve mix without strike-distance noise. `stockonly` is the bare-TSLA-hold reference. Bare 50/50 not included because no standalone 50_50 config exists (see 1.5 + 2.5 for 50/50 + collar variants). Strategies ordered by sleeve weight: most stock first → most leveraged last.

Generated 2026-05-17 15:37 · Period: 2019-01-02 → 2026-04-30 · Runs: stockonly, 85_15, 70_30, 0_100

Reading the absolute numbers: SPEC §9 caveats apply. Costs are modeled (CC premium haircut, X3 trade cost) but real-world frictions like MA10 whipsaw timing, vol-spike spread blowouts, and FX spread are not. Treat differences between runs as much more reliable than absolute returns.

Strategy settings

SPEC §5 fields per strategy. Monthly anchor and X3 timing are controlled by the global toggle in the filter bar — every strategy runs under all 6 timing variants.

Settingstockonly85_1570_300_100
Start date2019-01-012019-01-012019-01-012019-01-01
End date2026-04-302026-04-302026-04-302026-04-30
Initial capital (USD)500000.0500000.0500000.0500000.0
Monthly anchor (toggle)lastlastlastlast
X3 timing (toggle)close_closeclose_closeclose_closeclose_close
CC enabledfalsefalsefalsefalse
CC OTM %10.013.013.013.0
Withdrawal/cycle USD0.00.00.00.0
Stock sleeve %100.085.070.00.0
X3 sleeve %0.015.030.0100.0
X3 drag %0.00.00.00.0
X3 mgmt fee %0.00.00.00.0
X3 funding mult2.252.252.252.25
X3 MA window10101010
HV window30303030
IV multiplier1.121.121.121.12
X3 trade cost %0.250.250.250.25
CC haircut %3.03.03.03.0
Put enabled————
Put OTM %————
Put funding————
Put max cost % of premium————
Short put enabled————
Short put moneyness %————
Short put target premium————
Short put collateral mode————

Summary metrics

NAV is engine state (does not include withdrawn cash). Total wealth = Final NAV + cumulative withdrawn. Cells with two numbers show total above, median per cycle below. The dispersion subline (toggle in filter bar) shows min · median · max of each metric across the timing-variant family.

Metricstockonly85_1570_300_100
Initial NAV (USD)500,000
fan (6): min 500,000 · med 505,081 · max 506,566
500,000
fan (6): min 500,000 · med 504,319 · max 505,581
500,000
fan (6): min 500,000 · med 503,557 · max 504,596
500,000
fan (6): min 500,000 · med 500,000 · max 500,000
Final NAV (USD, post-tax)8,971,315
fan (6): min 8,971,315 · med 9,062,568 · max 9,089,280
24,583,043
fan (6): min 18,053,197 · med 24,651,404 · max 27,858,151
58,300,118
fan (6): min 31,098,751 · med 58,390,197 · max 70,893,002
671,881,345
fan (6): min 74,166,964 · med 671,881,345 · max 671,881,345
Increased NAV (USD, post-tax)
+8,471,315avg: +96,579/mo
fan (6): min 8,471,315 · med 8,557,487 · max 8,582,714
+24,083,043avg: +274,562/mo
fan (6): min 17,547,616 · med 24,149,244 · max 27,353,832
+57,800,118avg: +658,959/mo
fan (6): min 30,594,155 · med 57,888,418 · max 70,389,446
+671,381,345avg: +7,654,185/mo
fan (6): min 73,666,964 · med 671,381,345 · max 671,381,345
Withdrawn cash (USD)0
fan (6): min 0 · med 0 · max 0
0
fan (6): min 0 · med 0 · max 0
0
fan (6): min 0 · med 0 · max 0
0
fan (6): min 0 · med 0 · max 0
Total wealth (NAV + withdrawn, USD post-tax)
8,971,315+1694.3% of initial
fan (6): min 8,971,315 · med 9,062,568 · max 9,089,280
24,583,043+4816.6% of initial
fan (6): min 18,053,197 · med 24,651,404 · max 27,858,151
58,300,118+11560.0% of initial
fan (6): min 31,098,751 · med 58,390,197 · max 70,893,002
671,881,345+134276.3% of initial
fan (6): min 74,166,964 · med 671,881,345 · max 671,881,345
CAGR USD49.01%
fan (6): min 49.0% · med 49.0% · max 49.0%
70.98%
fan (6): min 63.7% · med 70.9% · max 73.7%
92.37%
fan (6): min 76.3% · med 92.3% · max 97.4%
168.79%
fan (6): min 99.0% · med 168.8% · max 168.8%
Max drawdown
-73.6%9,914,718 → 2,614,2942021-11-04 → 2023-01-03
fan (6): min -73.6% · med -73.6% · max -73.6%
-75.2%20,898,123 → 5,181,3712021-11-04 → 2023-01-03
fan (6): min -75.4% · med -75.0% · max -73.8%
-76.9%40,120,387 → 9,268,4102021-11-04 → 2023-01-03
fan (6): min -77.2% · med -76.6% · max -74.8%
-86.5%314,609,896 → 42,444,8142021-11-04 → 2022-07-13
fan (6): min -86.8% · med -86.5% · max -86.5%
Sharpe USD0.88
fan (6): min 0.88 · med 0.88 · max 0.88
1.06
fan (6): min 1.00 · med 1.06 · max 1.08
1.18
fan (6): min 1.06 · med 1.18 · max 1.21
1.37
fan (6): min 1.14 · med 1.37 · max 1.37
Premium collected (USD)0
fan (6): min 0 · med 0 · max 0
0
fan (6): min 0 · med 0 · max 0
0
fan (6): min 0 · med 0 · max 0
0
fan (6): min 0 · med 0 · max 0
Upside lost to assignments (USD)
Σ over assigned cycles of (spot at expiry − strike) × shares assigned: gains the CC capped away.
————
Net (premium − upside lost) USD
Total CC premium collected minus upside lost to assignments. Positive = the CC overlay paid for itself; negative = assignments cost more than the premium earned.
————
X3 P&L on assigned cycles (USD)
X3 sleeve P&L during the cycles where the CC was assigned — the rallies that capped the call usually lifted X3 too.
————
Net + X3 offset on assigned (USD)
Net (premium − upside lost) plus the X3 sleeve's P&L during assigned cycles — credits X3 for cushioning the same rallies that capped the call.
————
Median premium % of NAV/cycle—
fan (6): min 0.00% · med 0.00% · max 0.00%
—
fan (6): min 0.00% · med 0.00% · max 0.00%
—
fan (6): min 0.00% · med 0.00% · max 0.00%
—
fan (6): min 0.00% · med 0.00% · max 0.00%
# CC cycles0
fan (6): min 0 · med 0 · max 0
0
fan (6): min 0 · med 0 · max 0
0
fan (6): min 0 · med 0 · max 0
0
fan (6): min 0 · med 0 · max 0
# CC assigned0 (0.0%)
fan (6): min 0 · med 0 · max 0
0 (0.0%)
fan (6): min 0 · med 0 · max 0
0 (0.0%)
fan (6): min 0 · med 0 · max 0
0 (0.0%)
fan (6): min 0 · med 0 · max 0
# X3 entries / exits0 / 0135 / 132135 / 132135 / 132
Avg X3 cycle win / loss+0.0% / +0.0%+50.4% / -16.5%+50.4% / -16.5%+50.4% / -16.5%
Schablonskatt (USD)258,029630,5301,397,89416,394,326

Robustness across timing variants

Dispersion across 6 timing variants (anchor × X3-timing) per strategy. Tight spread (✓ robust) means the headline numbers don't depend on the timing knob choice. Wide spread (⚠ luck-sensitive) means the backtest's headline is partly luck — judge that strategy by the median of the family, not the highlighted variant.
StrategyMetricMinMedianMaxSpread (max − min)
stockonlyCAGR %+49.0%+49.0%+49.0%+0.0% ✓ robust
Max DD %-73.6%-73.6%-73.6%+0.0% ✓ robust
Increased NAV (USD)+8,471,315+8,557,487+8,582,714+111,399
Total premium (USD)+0+0+0+0
Sharpe0.880.880.880.00 ✓ robust
Net put P&L (USD)+0+0+0+0
85_15CAGR %+63.7%+70.9%+73.7%+10.0% ⚠ luck-sensitive
Max DD %-75.4%-75.0%-73.8%+1.5% ✓ robust
Increased NAV (USD)+17,547,616+24,149,244+27,353,832+9,806,217
Total premium (USD)+0+0+0+0
Sharpe1.001.061.080.08 ✓ robust
Net put P&L (USD)+0+0+0+0
70_30CAGR %+76.3%+92.3%+97.4%+21.0% ⚠ luck-sensitive
Max DD %-77.2%-76.6%-74.8%+2.5% ✓ robust
Increased NAV (USD)+30,594,155+57,888,418+70,389,446+39,795,291
Total premium (USD)+0+0+0+0
Sharpe1.061.181.210.14
Net put P&L (USD)+0+0+0+0
0_100CAGR %+99.0%+168.8%+168.8%+69.8% ⚠ luck-sensitive
Max DD %-86.8%-86.5%-86.5%+0.3% ✓ robust
Increased NAV (USD)+73,666,964+671,381,345+671,381,345+597,714,382
Total premium (USD)+0+0+0+0
Sharpe1.141.371.370.23 ⚠ luck-sensitive
Net put P&L (USD)+0+0+0+0

Strategy response to TSLA cycle moves (per-cycle returns by TSLA-bucket, SPEC §6.3 + §6.4)

Per CC cycle, bucketed by TSLA's window return. X3 sleeve columns isolate X3 behavior (identical across strategies sharing schedule + sleeve weight). Per-strategy columns show median % / mean % of total cycle return for cycles in that bucket.

TSLA bucketSample countAvg TSLA return %X3 sleeve return % (med / mean)stockonly85_1570_300_100
-37.5% to -32.5%1-32.6%-22.6% / -22.6%
fan (4): min -22.6% · med -21.0% · max -5.4%
-32.6% / -32.6%
fan (4): min -37.2% · med -34.7% · max -32.6%
-31.1% / -31.1%
fan (4): min -34.5% · med -31.8% · max -30.7%
-29.6% / -29.6%
fan (4): min -31.8% · med -30.2% · max -26.2%
-22.6% / -22.6%
fan (4): min -22.6% · med -21.0% · max -5.4%
-32.5% to -27.5%1-27.6%-18.9% / -18.9%
fan (6): min -20.1% · med -19.3% · max +3.8%
-27.6% / -27.6%
fan (6): min -30.8% · med -30.0% · max -27.6%
-26.3% / -26.3%
fan (6): min -29.0% · med -28.5% · max -23.4%
-25.0% / -25.0%
fan (6): min -27.3% · med -26.9% · max -18.6%
-18.9% / -18.9%
fan (6): min -20.1% · med -19.3% · max +3.8%
-27.5% to -22.5%2-24.6%+1.9% / +1.9%
fan (6): min -25.0% · med -11.0% · max +1.9%
-24.6% / -24.6%
fan (6): min -27.4% · med -25.9% · max -24.3%
-20.6% / -20.6%
fan (6): min -26.1% · med -23.5% · max -20.6%
-16.7% / -16.7%
fan (6): min -25.7% · med -21.3% · max -16.7%
+1.9% / +1.9%
fan (6): min -25.0% · med -11.0% · max +1.9%
-22.5% to -17.5%4-20.7%-19.7% / -20.0%
fan (6): min -24.0% · med -13.6% · max +8.1%
-20.9% / -20.7%
fan (6): min -20.9% · med -19.8% · max -18.0%
-20.7% / -20.6%
fan (6): min -20.7% · med -18.8% · max -15.7%
-20.3% / -20.5%
fan (6): min -20.3% · med -17.8% · max -11.5%
-19.7% / -20.0%
fan (6): min -24.0% · med -13.6% · max +8.1%
-17.5% to -12.5%6-14.7%-21.8% / -16.8%
fan (6): min -21.8% · med -15.7% · max -7.9%
-14.4% / -14.7%
fan (6): min -17.2% · med -15.5% · max -14.4%
-16.4% / -15.1%
fan (6): min -16.4% · med -15.8% · max -14.1%
-17.9% / -15.4%
fan (6): min -17.9% · med -15.7% · max -13.2%
-21.8% / -16.8%
fan (6): min -21.8% · med -15.7% · max -7.9%
-12.5% to -7.5%9-9.4%-9.9% / -9.2%
fan (6): min -23.9% · med -12.3% · max -9.2%
-9.4% / -9.4%
fan (6): min -11.7% · med -9.9% · max -9.3%
-9.7% / -9.4%
fan (6): min -14.2% · med -10.5% · max -9.0%
-9.6% / -9.3%
fan (6): min -15.9% · med -11.0% · max -9.6%
-9.9% / -9.2%
fan (6): min -23.9% · med -12.3% · max -9.2%
-7.5% to -2.5%13-4.6%-17.9% / -19.5%
fan (6): min -17.9% · med -14.9% · max -10.6%
-4.3% / -4.6%
fan (6): min -5.8% · med -5.1% · max -4.3%
-6.7% / -6.8%
fan (6): min -7.4% · med -6.4% · max -5.2%
-9.1% / -9.0%
fan (6): min -10.1% · med -8.0% · max -6.6%
-17.9% / -19.5%
fan (6): min -17.9% · med -14.9% · max -10.6%
-2.5% to +2.5%8+0.2%+2.5% / +11.3%
fan (6): min -7.7% · med -1.0% · max +2.5%
-0.1% / +0.2%
fan (6): min -0.4% · med -0.0% · max +0.2%
+0.3% / +1.8%
fan (6): min -0.6% · med +0.1% · max +1.6%
+0.6% / +3.5%
fan (6): min -1.8% · med -0.0% · max +1.3%
+2.5% / +11.3%
fan (6): min -7.7% · med -1.0% · max +2.5%
+2.5% to +7.5%13+5.0%-2.3% / +2.0%
fan (6): min -5.0% · med -2.0% · max +6.1%
+5.4% / +5.0%
fan (6): min +4.3% · med +5.1% · max +5.5%
+4.3% / +4.6%
fan (6): min +3.4% · med +4.2% · max +5.2%
+3.2% / +4.1%
fan (6): min +1.8% · med +3.1% · max +5.3%
-2.3% / +2.0%
fan (6): min -5.0% · med -2.0% · max +6.1%
+7.5% to +12.5%7+10.4%+24.9% / +31.4%
fan (6): min -4.3% · med +7.9% · max +24.9%
+10.7% / +10.4%
fan (6): min +8.2% · med +9.3% · max +10.9%
+13.2% / +13.5%
fan (6): min +6.2% · med +8.8% · max +13.2%
+15.3% / +16.7%
fan (6): min +4.1% · med +8.1% · max +15.3%
+24.9% / +31.4%
fan (6): min -4.3% · med +7.9% · max +24.9%
+12.5% to +17.5%4+14.6%+15.0% / +8.8%
fan (6): min +15.0% · med +23.1% · max +30.6%
+14.8% / +14.6%
fan (6): min +13.3% · med +14.4% · max +15.3%
+14.3% / +13.7%
fan (6): min +14.3% · med +15.6% · max +17.5%
+14.4% / +12.8%
fan (6): min +14.4% · med +17.2% · max +19.8%
+15.0% / +8.8%
fan (6): min +15.0% · med +23.1% · max +30.6%
+17.5% to +22.5%6+20.5%+42.4% / +38.1%
fan (5): min -27.5% · med +33.8% · max +45.5%
+20.8% / +20.5%
fan (5): min +18.4% · med +19.5% · max +20.8%
+22.9% / +23.1%
fan (5): min +11.5% · med +22.4% · max +22.9%
+26.3% / +25.8%
fan (5): min +4.6% · med +24.2% · max +26.7%
+42.4% / +38.1%
fan (5): min -27.5% · med +33.8% · max +45.5%
+22.5% to +27.5%2+24.9%+27.4% / +27.4%
fan (6): min +27.4% · med +39.6% · max +73.1%
+24.9% / +24.9%
fan (6): min +23.3% · med +25.5% · max +27.3%
+25.3% / +25.3%
fan (6): min +23.7% · med +27.5% · max +32.8%
+25.7% / +25.7%
fan (6): min +24.4% · med +29.6% · max +39.8%
+27.4% / +27.4%
fan (6): min +27.4% · med +39.6% · max +73.1%
+27.5% to +32.5%3+30.2%+86.8% / +64.0%
fan (6): min +21.1% · med +64.9% · max +86.8%
+30.4% / +30.2%
fan (6): min +29.4% · med +30.8% · max +31.5%
+40.1% / +35.3%
fan (6): min +29.2% · med +35.9% · max +40.1%
+48.4% / +40.3%
fan (6): min +27.8% · med +41.8% · max +48.4%
+86.8% / +64.0%
fan (6): min +21.1% · med +64.9% · max +86.8%
+32.5% to +37.5%2+35.5%+79.6% / +79.6%
fan (6): min +28.1% · med +55.2% · max +79.6%
+35.5% / +35.5%
fan (6): min +34.9% · med +35.5% · max +37.1%
+42.1% / +42.1%
fan (6): min +32.9% · med +39.1% · max +42.1%
+48.7% / +48.7%
fan (6): min +32.0% · med +41.8% · max +48.7%
+79.6% / +79.6%
fan (6): min +28.1% · med +55.2% · max +79.6%
+37.5% to +42.5%1+41.0%+94.4% / +94.4%
fan (6): min +94.4% · med +119.9% · max +125.6%
+41.0% / +41.0%
fan (6): min +38.2% · med +40.5% · max +41.0%
+49.0% / +49.0%
fan (6): min +49.0% · med +50.9% · max +53.2%
+57.0% / +57.0%
fan (6): min +57.0% · med +63.1% · max +66.0%
+94.4% / +94.4%
fan (6): min +94.4% · med +119.9% · max +125.6%
+42.5% to +47.5%2+44.1%+155.4% / +155.4%
fan (6): min +91.5% · med +131.1% · max +271.3%
+44.1% / +44.1%
fan (6): min +44.1% · med +44.7% · max +46.1%
+60.8% / +60.8%
fan (6): min +51.1% · med +58.7% · max +78.4%
+77.5% / +77.5%
fan (6): min +58.2% · med +71.5% · max +112.4%
+155.4% / +155.4%
fan (6): min +91.5% · med +131.1% · max +271.3%
+47.5% to +52.5%3+50.4%+146.8% / +144.2%
fan (4): min +67.4% · med +127.3% · max +188.4%
+51.0% / +50.4%
fan (4): min +49.0% · med +50.3% · max +51.9%
+65.5% / +64.5%
fan (4): min +51.7% · med +62.9% · max +69.1%
+79.8% / +78.5%
fan (4): min +54.5% · med +74.3% · max +90.2%
+146.8% / +144.2%
fan (4): min +67.4% · med +127.3% · max +188.4%
+52.5% to +57.5%1+54.7%+150.5% / +150.5%
fan (3): min +80.9% · med +146.8% · max +150.5%
+54.7% / +54.7%
fan (3): min +53.4% · med +54.7% · max +56.3%
+69.1% / +69.1%
fan (3): min +60.0% · med +68.0% · max +69.1%
+83.4% / +83.4%
fan (3): min +63.7% · med +82.5% · max +83.4%
+150.5% / +150.5%
fan (3): min +80.9% · med +146.8% · max +150.5%
Overall88+1745.9%+137555.1%+1694.3%+4816.6%+11560.0%+134276.3%

Premium yield per cycle (SPEC §6.8)

For each CC cycle: premium received ÷ value of the stock being covered (n_contracts × 100 × spot_at_sale) × 100. Strike-comparable yield, scale-invariant — depends only on strike distance, DTE and IV, not on portfolio size or year. With a monthly schedule this is a per-month yield; multiply by 12 for a rough annualized read (ignores compounding and assignment losses). The bottom row shows realized cashflow extremes in USD (in target_cashflow mode integer-contract rounding can push a single cycle past the cited target on high-IV days). Histograms below the table show the per-cycle USD distribution for each strategy side-by-side.

Statstockonly
full coverage
85_15
full coverage
70_30
full coverage
0_100
full coverage
Median %————
Mean %————
p25 / p75 %————
Min / Max %————
Min / Max premium USD————
Net premium after put cost USD————
# CC cycles0000
CC premium per cycle (full period — does not respond to the period selector).
stockonly
no CC cycles
85_15
no CC cycles
70_30
no CC cycles
0_100
no CC cycles

Equity curves

Log-scale USD NAV. Green shading marks days TSLA closed above its 10-day MA — the X3 sleeve is leveraged during these regimes.

·Resolution:
Equity curves — log-scale USD NAV (post-tax)$1,000,000$10,000,0002020202120222023202420252026NAV USD (log)70_3085_15stockonly

Regime behavior (SPEC §6.10)

Aggregates each strategy's annualized return across all windows of the same regime tag (see config/periods.yaml). Each (strategy × period) is its own fresh-start backtest from $500k. Cell format: median CAGR % / mean CAGR % across the n windows in that tag.

Regime tagstockonly85_1570_300_100
Full real-options window (n=1)+48.3% / +48.3%+74.0% / +74.0%+99.8% / +99.8%+201.3% / +201.3%
Flat (sideways with structure) (n=2)-0.3% / -0.3%+14.3% / +14.3%+29.1% / +29.1%+94.1% / +94.1%
Round-trip up (peak in middle, ends near start) (n=2)+1.5% / +1.5%+15.1% / +15.1%+30.2% / +30.2%+134.5% / +134.5%
Round-trip down / V-shape (trough in middle, ends near start) (n=3)+1.4% / +2.9%+19.4% / +21.7%+29.3% / +44.1%+67.5% / +224.9%
Up strong (>+60% sustained rally) (n=2)+113.8% / +113.8%+160.3% / +160.3%+209.6% / +209.6%+430.8% / +430.8%
Down strong (<-35% sustained drop) (n=2)-50.0% / -50.0%-39.0% / -39.0%-25.8% / -25.8%+73.1% / +73.1%
Ends higher (+20% to +60%) (n=5)+32.7% / +35.3%+50.8% / +50.4%+62.1% / +67.2%+95.1% / +186.9%
Ends lower (-10% to -35%) (n=2)-18.8% / -18.8%-9.1% / -9.1%+0.6% / +0.6%+45.8% / +45.8%
Multi-oscillation (≥4 sign flips, ends near start) (n=1)+5.3% / +5.3%+11.3% / +11.3%+16.5% / +16.5%+28.7% / +28.7%
Low drawdown (smooth rallies, max DD ≤25%) (n=3)+180.7% / +310.7%+245.0% / +419.3%+312.9% / +547.3%+643.6% / +1441.0%
Really bad x3 periods (x3 peak-DD ≥85%, asymmetric to stock) (n=4)-14.8% / -4.8%-7.3% / +4.2%-0.2% / +12.6%+27.4% / +41.0%